05/27/11 Buenos Aires, Argentina – Speculation is not the same as gambling. As our good friend Doug Casey, a perennial favorite at the Agora Financial Investment Symposium, likes to say, speculation is the act (some might say “art”) of “capitalizing on politically caused distortions in the marketplace.”
Consider, for example, the recent housing bubble…and its subsequent bust. We touched on this in Wednesday’s issue, “Debunking the Myth of a Free Market Run Wild“.
Superficially, the mortgage meltdown looked like, and was so labeled, a “crisis of confidence,” leading to a convenient excuse for greater intervention by the Feds. Of course, and as usual, the exact opposite was true: the bubble was in fact a crisis of overconfidence, nurtured by the very same pinheads who pumped, via the Federal Reserve, more credit into the system during the 1990s and early ’00s than the free market would ever have reasonably tolerated.
As far as the perpetrators of the whole mess were concerned, the state-sponsored manipulation of the mortgage market, “worked”…which is to say, home prices went up…and up and up and up. But that was only half of the equation. The other half – the down and down and down part – is at present working its way through the bowels of the market. At last count, home prices – already 33% off their peak – were falling at a rate of about 1% per month. Ouch!
Needless to say, such a grotesque distortion had both its winners and losers. The winners, for their part, were to be found closely huddled around the DC-to-Wall Street profit pipeline, suckling on bailout funds and pulling ripcords on their golden parachutes. Losers, meanwhile, tended to resemble ordinary folks who were left to foot the bill, ordinary folks without the means to employ the gun-for-hire that is the state along with its various and multitudinous law “makers” and inner-beltway lobbyists.
Similar market distortions – from the tech bust in 2000-01 all the way back to Tulipmania during the Dutch Golden Age of the early 1600s – all find their origin in monetary meddling of one form or another. The asset class affected may vary, in other words, but the culprit – namely, governments who manipulate the money supply – is always the same.
The biggest distortion of the modern era, therefore, is not flower bulbs or dot-coms or even housing prices. These are effects, not causes. There is a much greater distortion underway, one that underlies all of these booms and busts, peaks and troughs. It’s the distortion of the value of money itself.
Explain Morris and Linda Tannehill in their book, The Market for Liberty:
Governments commonly sap the strength of their currencies by engaging in inflationary practices. (They do this because inflation is a sort of sneaky tax which allows the government to spend more money than it takes in, by putting extra currency into the economy, thus stealing a little of the real or supposed value of every unit of currency already there.) As tax burdens become more oppressive, few governments can resist the temptation to circumvent citizen protest by resorting to inflation. They then protect their shaky currencies from devaluation, as long as possible, by international agreements which fix the relative value of currencies and obligate nations to come to each other’s aid in financial crises. In a sense, the main protection which an inflated currency has is the fact that all the other major currencies of the world are inflated, too.
The history of centrally controlled monies is a history of theft, inflation and, eventually and invariably, defaults. From coin clippings during the Roman Empire through to debasement of German marks under the Weimar Republic…to hyperinflationary corruption of, in no particular order, Hungarian pengős…Zimbabwean dollars…Greek drachmai…Brazilian cruzeiros…Polish zlotych…Chinese yuan…Nicaraguan córdobas…US continentals…Peruvian soles…Angolan kwanzas…Russian rubles…Argentine pesos…
…and the list goes on (and on…and on…).
And it’s happening today, sometimes covertly, other times right out in the open. Belarus, for example, this week devalued its ruble by 36%…overnight!
For some, the solution lies in returning to a “gold standard,” to be maintained and safeguarded under the vigilant eye of the benevolent, “night watchmen” state. Fringy politicians and newsletter writers often advocate some form of metal-backed currency, whereby the state would be able to mint coins and print notes only so far as it had gold and/or silver in reserve to “back it up.”
This line of thinking seems, to us at least, to miss the point entirely. Have governments not gone out of their way to demonstrate their utter incapability of keeping a promise? The United States HAD a gold standard…more than once. (It also had a constitution. Remember that?) And what good did it do? Nixon may have severed the last thread of the dollar/gold peg back in 1971, but he was certainly not the first to devalue the greenback against the Midas metal. Remember, before FDR confiscated all the gold in the land back in 1933, an ounce of gold was only “worth” $20. (More correctly, a dollar was worth 1/20th an ounce of gold.) Then, in one fell swoop, the original New Dealer “revalued” the metal to $35 an ounce, thereby devaluing the dollar to 1/35th an ounce of gold. Some “standard.”
Men and women, kings and tyrants, prime ministers and presidents, both black and white and from the east and the west, have made a career out of cheating the citizens they affect to serve out of the value of their currency. Why give them another chance?
No. The solution is not vesting more trust in the state and the do-good meddlers who infest it. The solution is not tying them to a gold standard (again) only to watch them wriggle out from under it (again). The counterfeiters-in-chief of the world’s central banks have done enough already to prove they can’t be trusted, with or without a gold standard.
The solution, rather, is competing, free market currencies operating outside the reach of the easily, demonstrably corruptible influence of those in positions of power who would seek, as they always and forever do, to devalue it for their own ends.
Mired, as we are, in the archaic realms of state-backed currency monopolies, it is sometimes hard for us to imagine just what a truly free market currency might look like. Would it be backed by gold? Silver? Both? Or would the market, driven by the competitive need to provide a safer, more reliable store of value, create an alternative, superior guarantee of trust?
Advocates of a small but fast-growing digital currency network called bitcoin think they’ve found the answer (or, at the very least, an answer). If it is successful, claim its adherents, this totally-decentralized, peer-to-peer (P2P) currency could supplant the world’s central bank-issued fiat money, potentially providing savvy speculators with an opportunity to cash in on the greatest politically motivated market distortion of our time. But even if this particular currency does not fulfill the hopes and aspirations of its enthusiasts and participants, it has at the very least shown that the free market is ready for the challenge.
Joel Bowman
for The Daily Reckoning
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Hmmm. Wonder what the gold miners association is going to say about this article? It will be interesting what the spin will look like.
We do not need another fiat currency. We should be able to trade in ounces of silver or grams of gold. States should charter bullion banks that store gold, silver and currency for their clients. We should have our savings in bullion instead of paper currency.
You’re doing good Joel.Just keep it going. The power to create and issue money must be taken away from the State. Money is but a concept, an accountancy tool by which to value the wealth created by the individual. Money is simply the mathematics of commerce, it has no value. It simply splits the barter transaction so that exchange is not confined to one place, one time, one trader, and one product. Rather, money lets us requisition any commodity at any time from any seller in any place openly and freely. Its the most democratizing tool ever conceived by the human imagination. Its power for harmonizing human relations dwarfs everything including the constitution the internet and Jesus Christ. It places humans on a unifying horizontal basis with one another thereby avoiding the controlling vertical hierarchy of government created central bank monopolies.
I would like to hear your opinion on the writings of EC Riegel. Thank you.
Gold is a commodity.
Money is a concept.
In order for humans to survive and prosper they must exchange their labor-created wealth with one another. In order to facilitate that exchange we must have money. Money comes from the imagination of the human mind.
Therefore, it is fiat. (by decree)
The people who create the wealth shall determine the means by which they will exchange their wealth.
Wealth producing individuals shall create the money, not the King of England, not the Federal Reserve and not the
US Government. Under no circumstance can government be involved in the creation and issue of money. PERIOD!
Imagine a nation-state trying to prosecute war on a cash basis. Deficit financing would be a thing of the past.
And so would most of our wars, pathetic empires and obscenely wasted natural resources.
Its our ignorance which ties us to the whipping post.
Bitcoin – or any P2P based currency – is here to stay (sorry parasites, that’s the way it is). Buy Bitcoins as soon as posible, fasten your sit belt and enjoy the ride!
Digital money = potential inflation limited only by the number of electrons in the universe. Never the less, it might work for a while. At least until the masses get tired of pushing all those zeros to make an instant purchase electronically because there is no x10 to the 20th power function key on their cell phone.
Bitcoins are not going to fly until the legal tender laws are changed or better yet thrown out. Von Nothaus (Liberty Dollar) show what the government thinks of competing currencies.All they have to do is make their use illegal. Game over!
THIS IS one of your best articles Joel…
Bitcoin is the opposite of Liberty Dollar. You can not kill Bitcoin without killing the internet.
To learn more: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin
“How Governments Distort the Value of Money With or Without a Gold Standard”
So basically you are saying that a gold standard won’t have any effect on the system?
Very good article Joel.
Fiat currencies are nothing but a confidence game. The second the trust in the store of value is gone the currency collapses. The dollar’s day are numbered, problem is to determine if it’s days, weeks or years.
You got it Greenspan. Money is a concept as is civilization.
I have already commented extendively on maxkeiser.com the concept of Bitcoin, it’s just another fiat backed by fried air. A real, free market is to SPEND gold and silver coins, no paper, no cards, no bank account, only gold and silver coins. Everything else is subject to all sorts of frauds. Once we finally embrace this concept, we’ll be ok.
yep corxi as long as we all agree to the concept. Of course keep in mind gold and silver are manipulated as much as anything else considered tradeable. It is only worth as much as someone will “pay” for it.
Interesting to see people so worried about currency deflation when we have had three decades of lower and lower inflation.
Don’t worry about currency. Create, save and accumulate wealth and you will live happily ever after.
“Its power for harmonizing human relations dwarfs everything including the constitution the internet and Jesus Christ.”
wow, that’s a hyperbole…
Nothing holds the power to harmonize humans other than humans themselves. If you ask me, money has been a means of subjugation rather than release of humans. And furthermore, as the first man bartered one egg for one carrot, money was there. It was either the egg or the carrot (or both).
As to bitcoin, I’d be higly surprised to see it prosper outside some very specific niches. But who knows…
“Create, save and accumulate wealth”
The problem, oh Great Sage, is in which form to “save” that wealth.
Try paper dollars, they’ll work wonders for’ya.
Only an investment in a bank acount or a bond is “in” paper dollars.
An investment in a house or in a corporation, or gold or oil or rare art is not an investment in paper dollars.
Put it this way, if they change the value of an inch, your manhood will not get any longer or shorter.
A company that makes widets for 50 cents and sells for a dollar, can still make the same 100% profit no matter what the currency.