02/01/11 Baltimore, Maryland – [Ed. Note: The following essay is an excerpt from Bill Bonner and Addison Wiggin’s 2002 bestseller, Financial Reckoning Day: Surviving the Soft Depression of the 21st Century.]
One of the complications of a declining population in the West is a political one. The War on Terrorism, declared on September 13, 2001, promises to be expensive, simply because there are so many potential terrorists to fight.
Westerners constitute a decreasing minority of the global population: In 1900, they amounted to 30 percent of humanity; in 1993 that number had dropped to 13 percent and by 2025, following current trends, the percentage will fall to 10 percent. At the same time, the Muslim world is growing younger and increasing in numbers.
In fact, Muslims’ market share of the global population has increased dramatically throughout the twentieth century and will continue to do so until the proportion of Westerners to Muslims is inverse that of the 1900 ratio. By 1980, Muslims constituted 18 percent of the world’s population and, in 2000, more than 20 percent. By 2025, they are expected to account for 30 percent of world population.
In his Clash of Civilizations, Samuel Huntington considers these demographics to have been a major factor in the Islamic resurgence of the late twentieth century. “Population growth in Muslim countries,” he says, “and particularly the expansion of the 15- to 24-year-old age cohort, provides recruits for fundamentalism, terrorism, insurgency, and migration…demographic growth threatens Muslim governments and non-Muslim societies.”
Islamic resurgence began in the 1970s and 1980s, just as the proportion of young people in the 15- to 24-year-old age group in Muslim nations exploded. Indeed this proportion peaked at more than 20 percent of the total population in many Muslim countries during these decades.
Muslim youth are a potential supply of members for Islamic organizations and political movements.
The Iranian Revolution, for example, in 1979 coincided with a peak in the youth population of Iran.
“For years to come Muslim populations will be disproportionately young populations,” Huntington explains, “with a notable demographic bulge of teenagers and people in their 20s.”
What are we to make of it?
Huntington suggests that the most accurate analogy in Western Society to this youth bulge in Muslim populations is the Protestant Reformation.
Ironically, both the rise of the fundamentalist movement in the Muslim world and the Protestant Reformation came about in reaction “to the stagnation and corruption of existing institutions,” says Huntington. Both advocate a “return to a purer and more demanding form of their religion; preach work, order and discipline; and appeal to emerging, dynamic middle-class people.” Both challenge the political and economic order of the time; and where the threat of the former is concerned, major defense spending on the part of the West would not seem appropriate.
“The Protestant Reformation,” writes Huntington, “is an example of one of the outstanding youth movements in history.” Citing Jack Goldstone, Huntington continues, “a notable expansion of the proportion of youth in Western countries coincides with the Age of Democratic Revolution in the last decades of the 18th century. In the 19th century successful industrialization and emigration reduced the political impact of young populations in European societies. The proportion of youth rose again in the 1920s, however, providing recruits to fascist and other extreme movements. Four decades later the post-World War II baby boom generation made its mark in the demonstrations of the 1960s.”
Whereas young people generally exhibit a rebellious and revolutionary influence on society, what happens when people grow old?
The exact opposite.
Fearfulness and loss of desire commonly accompany aging. Older people tend not to want as many things in life as young people. They lose their desire to impress friends, relatives, and partners. Instead of buying items they don’t need, they tend to become fearful that they will not be able to obtain what they do need. There is nothing peculiar about this; it is just nature’s way of recognizing diminishing opportunities. A man in his forties can start over. But in his late sixties, he no longer has the energy or the desire to do so. He therefore starts saving everything – tinfoil, money, rags – for fear he will not be able to get them when he needs them. This is how an elderly individual tends to behave. But what does an aging society look like? Again, we need only look across the ocean – to Japan.
Regards,
Bill Bonner and Addison Wiggin
for The Daily Reckoning
Bill Bonner
Since founding Agora Inc. in 1979, Bill Bonner has found success and garnered camaraderie in numerous communities and industries. A man of many talents, his entrepreneurial savvy, unique writings, philanthropic undertakings, and preservationist activities have all been recognized and awarded by some of America's most respected authorities. Along with Addison Wiggin, his friend and colleague, Bill has written two New York Times best-selling books, Financial Reckoning Day and Empire of Debt. Both works have been critically acclaimed internationally. With political journalist Lila Rajiva, he wrote his third New York Times best-selling book, Mobs, Messiahs and Markets, which offers concrete advice on how to avoid the public spectacle of modern finance. Since 1999, Bill has been a daily contributor and the driving force behind The Daily Reckoning. Dice Have No Memory: Big Bets & Bad Economics from Paris to the Pampas, the newest book from Bill Bonner, is the definitive compendium of Bill’s daily reckonings from more than a decade: 1999-2010.
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A young population can be a great benefit in a just society, which is hard to find in today’s world. Mostly it is and will be a millstone around the neck of any nearby authority figure. They will eat more than they can produce, or starve. The Renaissance was the result of the plague. It caused a labor shortage (spurring innovation) and spread the wealth among the survivors. Medical science, wars, and technology have caused these distortions. Don’t look for growth until population curves re-normalize.
alright, you two utes published this in 2002.
westerners are growing older and proportionately less populous, vis-a-vis global population; (30%/1900 v, 13%/1993) and, the muslim world, opposite, both ways.
iran ’79 and, by implication, since this was written a decade ago, muslim demands for change, 2011, are subject to this demographic rubric.
so, overall, we’re, a bunch of conservative old fartz like the japanese, and the muslims have the juice due to their relative youth and % of world population.
so whatski?
“One of the complications of a declining population in the West is a political one. The War on Terrorism, declared on September 13, 2001, promises to be expensive, simply because there are so many potential terrorists to fight.”
bingo! the demonic ’43′s two-horned whammy of the war on terror and the asinine ’08 “bailout” of the gamblers to “save the financial system” [the 'bookends' of his presidency] are the most highly propagandized, stinking, piles of crapola imaginable.
and, we’re too old to produce the amount of testosterone and estrogen to be able to see past american idol, and think straight, any more.
works for me!
however, to quote chuck b.: ‘jeeeez louise!’: well just maybe there’s a joker in the deck here, SOMEwhere…yep, i think i might see one, even two. anybody else see anything?
I see tremendous changes in how Americans view their Government: They now assume that they are being lied to and scammed, they know government is profoundly corrupt and no one trusts it. Few people honestly believe government knows what it’s doing and can actually IMPROVE any situation.
The only True Believers are the incorrigible libs who couldn’t see what they looked like when they were tinkling themselves over a f^&*ing politician in the person of Barack ‘the Community Organizer with no birth cert but with two autobiographies before his 40th birthday’ Obama.
The Tea Party movement is the healthiest thing I’ve seen in American politics since Ronald Reagan. Legions of people – ordinary Americans, are discovering the Constitution and Austrian Economics and the value of Liberty.
It’s become commonplace to see people display an understanding of topics like the Federal Reserve, Money as debt, The Constitution, the ‘one-party’ system etc while commenting in various online forums.
America is House Divided but at LEAST there is a FIGHT underway for the Soul of America. The honest heirs of the Founding Fathers – true Americans; in the mix there now arguing and organizing and not just the Parasite Elite, the Zombies and the Haters / Underminers of what was best about America.
What made America great is what made America good and noble. Not our obscene displays of wealth and military power.
A huge percentage of Americans have become creeps of the first order and have by now given our critics and enemies good reason for the hatred that they’ve always harbored for us out of envy and covetousness.
But there is a glimmer of hope that the righteous will win the argument in the aftermath of the collapse of the Pornographic Empire we’ve become and that we’ll return the Noble Republic.
hopefully that’s the joker in the deck.
Down with the American Empire – Long Live the Noble Republic!!
Roland—nice para!
you ain’t no headless thompson gunner.
here’s the link to zevon doing it on
letterman: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UDn1Zg08o8&feature=related
i saw him do this in SF @ the Great American Music Hall, in ’78.
my friend, D., took my wife and me, and even paid for the baby sitter! he erroneously credited me with saving his life during a raging psychosis. truth be told, i thought he was NORMAL when he dropped by and started sampling some ‘shrooms that J. had left on my kitchen table b/c he thought i had helped him with something, which i could never even remember, when he mentioned it. so, D. starts talking, and i start cracking jokes about everything he says, and, about 18 hours later, roughly the time my wife is threatening to murder us, he finally starts laughing and, i guess, feels better, and leaves…
so, we had a great table, and zevon appears, places a full bottle of whiskey on the pianoforte, with about 2 packs of cigarettes, and awaaay we go!
by the time he finished with “Excitable Boy”, the bottle was empty and he was so pi-lastered that he couldn’t remember the words! nobody cared! we were ALL just roaring, passing around weed, coke, bottles, and most of the waiters and waitresses. we just about destroyed the place waiting for an encore, till his lead axman appeared: “Warren needs to rest.”
so, we headed back over to berkeley.
ah! youth!
Note to self: Friday, Speak to Mr Ban Ki Moon re adding a few lines of favorable comments about condoms into the Koran. We’ll it Koran version 2.0
Note to self: Friday, Speak to Mr Ban Ki Moon re adding a few lines of favorable comments about condoms into the Koran. We’ll call it Koran version 2.0
hilary:
thx for getting back to me.
Adams:
Legions of people – ordinary Americans, are discovering the Constitution and Austrian Economics and the value of Liberty.
Bingo!
tyvm.
isn’t it incredible how ideas, tools we need to use for healthy change and getting REAL, are, time & again, “Hidden in plain sight.” ?
Re: Hillary’s meet with Ban Ki Moon.
Isn’t it funny how an American and a Korean can believe so strongly in changing the Qur’an they don’t even realize their arrogance?
Hahaha!
that’s one funny “observer”-ation!
is english your second language?
one can only hope you are trying to be as humorous as hilary, and perhaps left out a sentence or three.
why don’t you try this:
1) read the article.
2) read the comments
3) if there’s something you don’t understand, just throw a question up, and maybe someone will try to help you OUT.
1) I already did read the article
2) I already did read the comments
3) No there’s nothing I don’t understand except the arrogance duly pointed out in my post above (all the while trying to maintain a sense of humour)
P.S. The observation about my English. I think it’s workable and I’m not sure what you mean about my earlier post. Here’s a repeat with slight modifications so hopefully you’ll understand
“Re: Hillary’s meeting with Ban Ki Moon
How can an American and a Korean can talk about changing the Qur’an with a straight face? Do they even realize how arrogant and imperialistic that talk is?”
If by your reply you were trying to induce healthy debate, I don’t understanding how attacking my English or my (percieved) ignorance of the topic is helping.
a way to shorten columns and get more leisure time is to explain qwhatever is going on is human experience that repeats what wehave alradey learned about its strengths and weaknesses.
ref: proverbs in a dictionary of quotations.
Feb. 12, 2011
This past week my leftist if not revolutionary sister in California sent me a book showing what happens when autocrats, dictators, robber barons and the like (economists and capitalists) get together to show how patriotic they are. The book is “The Shock Doctrine” by Naomi Klein. Mr. Bonner and others on the Daily Reckoning staff have been to South America…they might have an interest in the book…a misinterpreted History of terror and Coups in South America. Think of the Middle East right now! The book is written from the Marxist point of view. Question…Help: How can I prevent my sister from becoming a revolutionary?
Naomi Klein documents torture, even electro shock (therapy?) promoted by Americans…robber barons and Economists “Milton Friedman” “Friedrich Hayek” also, the psychologist and former President of the American Psychiatric Association “Do Hebb”…in South American History… referring to them as “shock Doctors and Chicago Boys.”
In that I have had at least seven or eight undergraduate and graduate Psychology courses, and I have read Bill Bonner, Jim Cook, Howard Ruff, Harry Browne, etc…I tried to explain to my sister, excluding Naomi Klein, that all of the above are reputable people.
Still, Naomi’s book is a well documented history and could help in understanding what happened.
What frightens me follows: We studied Do Hebb in one Educational graduate course (if I remember correctly, over 30 years ago) at the Pennsylvania State University. Do Hebb used diagrams… bent and rounded arrows in describing “actual happenings” in the Human brain. He had a warped interest in the human brain. Of course he would say… now, that he was trying to elucidate…stimulus and response!
Now, I no longer read psychologists. I would much rather read Bill Bonner, Addison Wiggins and the Mogambo Guru.
Thank you,
Ed Kashuba