After a quick whistle-stop tour through Chicago and Atlanta, your California editor’s Pullman screeched to a halt in Denver, Colorado last night. Upon arrival, he stepped down from his Pullman, which bore an uncanny resemblance to a Boeing 757, hailed a porter, which bore an uncanny resemblance to a conveyor belt, climbed into his awaiting Packard Phaeton, which bore an uncanny resemblance to a Ford Fiesta rental car…and rolled down the motorway to his father’s house.
Your California editor’s father turns 88 years old in one week, so your editor took the occasion to stop in and wish Dad an early Happy Birthday! But let’s not let these modest festivities stand in the way of our daily reckonings…
A few weeks back, your team here at The Daily Reckoning highlighted the groundbreaking work of Harry Browne, creator of the Permanent Portfolio.
“A few decades ago,” we remarked, “a guy named Harry Browne devised an investment strategy he dubbed the ‘Permanent Portfolio.’ The idea was so simple it seemed almost moronic. And yet, with the passage of time we have discovered that his idea was pure genius.
“He suggested building an investment portfolio out of only four components: gold, bonds, stocks and cash.
“The idea was that at any given time, two or three of these four components might underperform — but the other portfolio components would perform so strongly, you’d get an overall gain that would outpace any increase in the cost of living. Incredibly, this simple strategy has delivered some surprisingly strong investment results.”
After providing more detail about the history and underlying philosophy of the Permanent Portfolio, we invited our Dear Readers to ask themselves the following questions:
1) Is Harry Browne’s original allocation still ideal for today’s macro-economic environment?
2) If not, how would you revise his original allocation for the next 30 years?
We called this little exercise the Daily Reckoning Group Research Project and as usual, our Dear Readers responded with some fascinating suggestions.
Several readers struggled to comply with the rules of the Group Project. For example, some readers could not stop themselves from recommending specific companies; others argued that some of the very best Permanent Portfolio allocations do trade on a public exchange.
One such reader suggested buying grazing land as part of his Permanent Portfolio. Another recommended buying a house. And a third named potash as one of his allocations. We sympathize with these readers who “drew outside the lines.” The financial markets do not possess a monopoly on attractive investment opportunities. We also sympathize with those readers who could no longer stomach the idea of buying Treasury bonds as a “risk free” allocation.
“Mr. Browne’s formula was based on the idea of a functioning and fair government and not a criminal enterprise,” writes a reader named Kent. “I would bet he would eliminate most government bonds since today they really are nothing more than counterfeit and would substitute ammunition, food or fuel.”
A reader from Buenos Aires (not Joel) offers a similar observation. He points out that the Permanent Portfolio mutual fund (PRPFX) has held a large position in both US Treasuries and Swiss bonds. “[This allocation] has been great so far in this über bond bubble. But will it stand the test of time?… I looked at the permanent portfolio’s performance in this century, which yields an increase of about 130%… However, looking at its performance from 1996 to 2002 is quite disappointing. Moving around like a cork on the water’s surface, just bouncing around in the waves. It takes off in 2002, when Greenspan lit the fuse beneath the bond bubble. What will happen when the bond bubble ruptures?”
Not surprisingly, most of the folks who had no use for Treasuries had plenty of use for hard assets.
“Dear Harry (RIP). Things are different now while the dollar is dying,” writes a reader named Susan. “It’s all ‘risk on’ as the world hangs in the balance… You must have your own grocery store at home… I want to be able to put my hands on at least a few of the things I need. All the clouds out there storing my stuff for me make me very nervous and I hope to end up with more than vapor and fumes at the end of the day.”
“There might have been a time when the permanent portfolio idea may have worked,” writes a reader named Ken, “but I believe that time has passed, which is why we avoid most bonds and buy gold and silver.”
A reader named Carl concurs. “I do not believe in a ‘permanent’ portfolio,” he writes, “because things work in cycles as you surely know… We are in our sixties and plan to stay conservative and just continue to buy silver bullion each month (dollar cost average). We have had more than a few of our stocks go to zero but we know that gold and silver, especially today, will never even approach that point… Mundus vult decipi, ergo decipiatur. (‘The world wants to be deceived, so let it be deceived’)”
Hard assets were not the only crowd favorites, however. Many readers suggested investing in real estate investment trusts (REITs) and other types of high-dividend-paying stocks. Biotech stocks also seemed to be a favorite.
So without further ado, here is a sampling of the Permanent Portfolios you submitted in response to the latest Daily Reckoning Group Research Project…
for The Daily Reckoning
Eric J. Fry, Agora Financial's Editorial Director, has been a specialist in international equities for nearly two decades. He was a professional portfolio manager for more than 10 years, specializing in international investment strategies and short-selling. Following his successes in professional money management, Mr. Fry joined the Wall Street-based publishing operations of James Grant, editor of the prestigious Grant's Interest Rate Observer. Working alongside Grant, Mr. Fry produced Grant's International and Apogee Research, institutional research products dedicated to international investment opportunities and short selling.
Mr. Fry subsequently joined Agora Inc., as Editorial Director. In this role, Mr. Fry supervises the editorial and research processes of numerous investment letters and services. Mr. Fry also publishes investment insights and commentary under his own byline as Editor of The Daily Reckoning. Mr. Fry authored the first comprehensive guide to investing internationally with American Depository Receipts. His views and investment insights have appeared in numerous publications including Time, Barron's, Wall Street Journal, International Herald Tribune, Business Week, USA Today, Los Angeles Times and Money.
I am an old Harry fan. I’ve read most of his books. The Permanent Portfolio is probably best explained in 1988 (?)’s “Why the Best-Laid Investment Plans Go Wrong…” He makes a good case for NOT going beyond his four core investments, yet allows the investor to do so, calling this the “variable portfolio.” Guru he was, but not perfect. He says somewhere about “You might doubt the reports of the recent weakening of Swiss banking secrecy.” Sorry Harry, but apparently Switzerland is not the haven it once was. We all should have the problem of having so much wealth we have to put some of it overseas. In contrast to the media hype over Romney, I actually salute the man for allegedly having Swiss and other “secret” accounts. What politico of a corrupt country doesn’t?
I must add a plug for Harry’s only (?) non-investment book. “How I Found Freedom In An Unfree World.” A short paperback, well worth reading.
I think one aspect is overlooked; Harry Browne wrote his book in another time/world. There is little sense in holding bonds in a manipulated market. There is little sense in holding real estate when the right of property is not respected. The world has changed and is still changing. What would be the result of Browne’s strategy in the USSR, Cuba, Egypt or Zimbabwe? What kind of place is the US turning in or Europe?
So, Sarah, why then did the permanent portfolio not have a single negative year since 1995? Did you have a positive return in 2008?
The clock is ticking down to April 15th. TaxBot founder, Sandy Botkin, outlines the five big tax changes for 2015 you need know before you file...
Look, we're not contrarian just for the sake of being contrarian. Only idiots are. And yes, the market will eventually drop. But the charts will tell us when it's time to sell. And right now, they're screaming "BUY". There's simply no other way to put it.
The trouble with money printing, explains David Stockman, is that it's responsible for Tesla. Armed with earnings figures, he shreds the company’s visage to pieces...
This year, we expect China to reveal just how much gold it owns. Today, our friend, Frank Holmes, gives his insight on how China could buy even more gold in the near future. And we’ve got every reason to believe it could upset the gold markets any day now, with great results for gold investors…
Where can you reasonably expect to make 50% in the next six months… and in the oil-patch, no less? The best way to play this short-term opportunity is with a handful of well-positioned refiners. Jody Chudley tells all...
Oil isn't magically jumping to $100 anytime soon. As I said, it could fluctuate around $50 for the foreseeable future. That's great news for businesses using a lot of fuel. Operating costs are way down, which means higher profits. And higher stock prices.