09/16/09 Baltimore, Maryland
“From a technical perspective, the recession is very likely over,” Ben Bernanke assured the world after a speech at the Brookings Institute yesterday. If you’ll spare us a few seconds, we’d like to start today’s news with a semantic gripe:
Is there any point in saying something is “technical” unless you’re just trying to put a pretty mask on an ugly reality? When our mechanic told us last month that the brake pads on our old Honda Civic were “technically” usable, we grimaced and reached for our wallet. Picture an anxious young couple in the doctor’s office post examination when their trusted physician announces, “Well, technically, you’re pregnant.” Mmmmm… how assuring.
So the economy is technically just fine, but “it’s still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time,” Mr. Bernanke hesitantly added, “as many people will still find that their job security and their employment status is not what they wish it was.”
In Bernanke-speak summary: Technical economy = what you wish it was. Real economy = not what you wish it was.
Here’s another serious indicator that the powers that be will soon be declaring an end to this recession: Capacity utilization inched up for the second month in a row in August. In data announced by the Fed today (now way Mr. Bernanke got a peak at this beforehand), the U.S. manufacturing sector utilized 69.6% of total capacity during August, its highest level since February.
We’ve noted this several times before, but it bears repeating. In postwar history, when capacity utilization rebounds, the technical conclusion of the recession has already occurred… just a matter of time before the NBER calls it:
So we wonder… how long until the next one technically begins?
Ian Mathias
Ian Mathias is the managing editor of Agora Financial’s Income Franchise, where he writes and researches about retirement, dividend and fixed income investing. Much of his work is featured in The Daily Reckoning and Lifetime Income Report – Agora Financial’s flagship income investing advisory.
Previously, Ian managed The 5 Min. Forecast, a fun, fast-paced daily look into the future of global markets and macroeconomics. He’s also worked in public relations, where media outlets like Forbes, AP, Yahoo! and MSN Money have syndicated his writing. If he’s not at work, you’ll probably find Ian on a bicycle, racing up and down the “mountains” of Baltimore County. Ian has a BA from Loyola University in Maryland.
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all of this courtesy of the man who claimed he didn’t even see it coming in the first place….no thanks – bernanke is full of his deceitful lies as usual….
my guess is that these changes are within the sampling error and don’t mean squat…
and if everyone is mewing about the consumer being 70% of the economy and manufacturing a weak sliver, then why all of the hullaballoo over capacity utilization….it sounds like someone getting excited about buggy whip production being up 200%…..
i wouldn’t even recommend bernanke for cosmetology school – putting lipstick on a pig is not an employable skill….
Bernanke said that the recession was likely probably could be over. All of the positive numbers are a result of the stimulus–so after a year or two, where will we be? And this announcement came on the day when Philadelphia inched closer to closing all of the Philadelphia Free Library brances forever on Oct. 2nd. Plus, the city plans to lay off 3,000 workers, including police and fire fighters. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly announced that it will cut 5-6,000 jobs over the next year or two, and Blockbuster is closing 950 stores. So, here we have perhaps 12,000 jobs about to evaporate. Why has nobody challenged the White House statement that the stimulus funding (ARRA) has “saved or created” one million jobs?