Why This Permabear Turned Bullish

When it comes to investing, I’ve been a wimp most of my life.

I always had “the next crash” on my mind. Inevitably, there hasn’t been a crash since 2008. (I don’t count the Covidiocy Crash of 2020 because it lasted about five seconds.)

That permabearish attitude, while seemingly safe, has come at a cost. I wasn’t taking risks, but the opportunity costs are significant. How much wealth did I potentially miss out on during the intervening period?

It’s too painful even to attempt a calculation.

Options expert and colleague Alan Knuckman always says, “Optimism wins.” But I came from the Yuri Maltsev School of Economics. He used to say, “A pessimist is an optimist with better information.”

In 2024, it’s the time of the Knuckman. You’d have to be crazy not to participate in this market.

And you know what the best part is?

If you’re a stock person, you’re winning. The SPX has rallied 1,000 points since November.

If you’re a gold bug, you’re winning. We finally broke $2,000 and have stayed there.

If you’re a sucker for silver, you’re winning. If we break $30, it’s off to the races.

You’ve had your best rally in four years if you’re a copper watcher.

And despite the recent sell-off, the crypto bros have recovered their usual arrogance.

It’s all good.

Why is that?

Because it’s an election year!

Everyone gets a loot bag.

The Politics of the Bull

Monetary Politics

Unlike my erstwhile colleague Jim Rickards, I’m not a Washington insider. I don’t get invited to their cocktail parties, and I’m not in anyone’s Rolodex.

And that’s just fine by me.

But since those in DC are so eager to put themselves in front of cameras, I don’t have to be. After all, politics is show business for ugly people.

And Jay Powell puts himself out there a lot. In a recent interview with CNBC, superstar fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller questioned why Federal Reserve Chairmen are even on 60 Minutes. “You’re not a rock star,” Druckenmiller opined.

To be fair to Powell, he’s obligated to appear before Congressional committees and the public by law or custom. He has to say something.

But what he’s not saying is all the more interesting.

Chairman Powell has never said, “The Fed now accepts we can’t get back to 2% inflation, so we’re good with 3%.”

He’s also never said, “I utterly loathe Donald Trump so much that I will cut rates if Biden’s in trouble this summer to the detriment of the economy and my reputation.”

And he’s too nice to say, “These lunatic West Coast-San Francisco Fed-MMT-Yellen acolytes infecting my bank are a bunch of retards, but at least they won’t vote against a rate cut even though we’re at full employment and running a 7% fiscal deficit.”

And that’s what it’ll come down to for Powell.

When Biden’s numbers get worse over the summer, Powell will give up the ghost.

He must, or The Donald will fire him the minute he sits behind the Resolute desk.

Powell will appear to relent. He’ll say, “Welp, you morons… I mean, colleagues… got me. You were right. Let’s cut. But just 25 bps, okay?”

Traders will wet their pants with happiness, and the S&P 500 will roar up to between 5,700 and 6,000 before the election.

Of course, the fear of the impending inflation will send gold to $2,500 or so. And those greedy silver traders will lick their chops sending silver to $35.

Crypto bros, who pretend that Bitcoin is an inflation and crisis hedge instead of a tech play, will love that rate cut as both BTC and the Nasdaq hit new highs.

Drinks all around!

And what of the fiscal side?

Fiscal Politics

The Husk of a Man Currently Known As Joe Biden has spent more money in office than any other person in history.

It’s currently not known if the President cares. But we know for sure his handlers don’t.

As expected, a Democrat administration is YOLOing it. But what’s so awful is that the Republican House is so complicit in this taxpayer theft.

Everyone wants to give out a goody bag to their constituents, and all the Congress Creatures wish to receive as much money in their coffers as possible for re-election.

So the spending isn’t going to slow down one iota.

In fact, expect it to ramp up as we approach November and as Biden’s polling numbers start to dwindle.

The Dems must spend a boatload of cash to get their man back in. It won’t be easy, but it’s possible.

The Outcome

All this is excellent news for investors, at least for the remainder of 2024.

The present administration, like all administrations, save LBJ’s, will do absolutely anything to remain in the Oval Office.

Heck, they’re even trying to start a kinetic war with Dubya’s old buddy Pooty Poot.

But hopefully, that doesn’t happen. Biden wants to be a wartime President even more than that jackass Speaker Mike Johnson wants to call himself “a wartime Speaker.”

The delusions of grandeur – and adequacy – run high inside the Beltway.

Wrap Up

What? No charts?

Not this time. We don’t need them.

All you need to know is that it’s looting time for this “democracy.”

The people will vote for anyone who will ease their discomfort with a swag bag.

The politicians will beg for money to run their campaigns.

The people behind the throne will do anything to remain in power, including to pretend Joke Biden is cognizant.

There’s nothing you can do about it.

Well, there’s one thing: profit.

Get your stocks, gold, silver, and crypto while the sale is still on.

It lasts for the remainder of 2024.

This year, we’re not selling in May and going away.