73% Expect Greece to Default Thanks to ECB

Faith in Europe’s nearly $1 trillion bailout is sputtering considerably. The latest Bloomberg tally shows 73 percent of global investors polled think it’s likely Greece will still default.

In addition, over 40 percent expect Greece to quit the euro. All that bailout sounds like money well spent, indeed.

From Bloomberg:

“‘There is clearly a risk of a breakup of the euro,’ says Geoff Marson, managing director at a Guernsey subsidiary of London-based Odey Asset Management, which oversees about $6 billion.

“Trichet, whose ECB supported the rescue package by buying bonds of Greece and other European governments, saw his approval rating tumble from a January Bloomberg poll. A plurality — 48 percent — give the 67-year-old central banker an unfavorable rating in the latest poll, while 41 percent view him favorably. In January, Trichet received a 60 percent approval rating, with 27 percent regarding him negatively.

“’Trichet has sacrificed the ECB’s independence by helping to rescue Greece,’ says Cyril Boudin, a participant in the poll and a derivatives trader at Unicredit Group in London.”

It’s not only European and IMF funds that look like they are going to waste, but also the credibility of the European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet. Perhaps it’s a good thing there wasn’t much credibility to lose in the first place.

You can read all the details in Bloomberg’s coverage of how a Greek default is seen as likely.


Rocky Vega,
The Daily Reckoning