01/14/11 Cologne, Germany – Nothing much in yesterday’s market news…so we turn to a remarkable article that appeared in MONEY magazine, proving that MONEY doesn’t know anything about money.
(MONEY Magazine) – Can you tell when a boom has turned into a bubble? One clue: When pop culture starts paying attention. The housing bubble, for example, brought both the TV show Flip This House and a rival on another network, Flip That House.
So if you own a lot of gold, you might regard a recent episode of Saturday Night Live as your first warning. In the opening skit, Bill Hader as China’s President Hu Jintao declares that Glenn Beck was right and that “my government should have bought gold. Unfortunately, all our assets were tied up in US Treasury bills.”
Back in the real world, gold is trading at about $1,400 an ounce, up from less than $500 five years ago. That’s a 23% annualized return, far outstripping the gains on stocks (1.1%) or bonds (6.1%). Fear is driving a lot of the rise.
MONEY has a point. But not a good one. When pop culture gets excited about an asset class – tech stocks in ’99 or housing and finance in ’06 – you know it’s late in a roaring party. It’s just a matter of time before the neighbors get mad and call the cops.
But the MONEY writer missed the point. Pop culture has to take the bubble asset seriously. Not as a joke.
The author admits that the magazine tried to persuade readers to dump gold last year at this time. That was a costly mistake. Gold went up nearly 30%. But it just shows how hard it is to get to the top of a bubble market.
Yeah, but gold is not in a bubble market. It’s in a bear market. It will turn into a bubble market later. So far, almost no one is at the party. Ask your friends, dear readers. Ask your relatives. How many of them own gold? Ask the cab drivers, the insurance salesmen, the auto dealers and the psychiatrists. Ask the readers of MONEY magazine. Do they old gold? Nope. It may have just completed its 11th year of a bull market, but people have still not caught on. They think there’s something weird about gold…something almost unpatriotic. It is as if you didn’t trust Ben Bernanke or something.
MONEY goes on to tell readers why they shouldn’t buy gold now.
Reason #1: “Bad economic news may not make you very much money. Good news could crush you.”
Of course, it depends on what kind of bad news. And how bad. Historically, gold is a refuge against bad news. And we can’t think of anything we’d rather have in bad news…unless the news were so darned bad that we’d rather have a farm far out in the country with a cow, a pig, a flock of chickens and an arsenal of weapons.
But how about the good news? Yes, gold would go down in a good news environment. The author talks about the ’80s and ’90s…as if a re-run of those good news years were possible. Oh boy! This fellow must have read Peter Lynch’s advice about not paying any attention to macroeconomics; he must have taken it seriously! Poor lump! You can ignore the macro weather forecast, but only when the weather is good. When the hurricanes and tornadoes start to blow, you need to know what’s going on so you can nail up the plywood and head for shelter.
What is the likelihood of a repeat of the ’80s and ’90s fair weather? Well, we’d need to begin with the high interest rates of the early Reagan years (they’re extremely low now). Then, we’d need low stock prices (they’re 1,100% higher now). We’d need relatively high inflation (CPI touched 13% in the early ’80s) rather than the 1.1% core CPI we have now. We’d need a monetary base of about $600 billion (rather than the $2.5 trillion Bernanke is building). We need total debt at about 120% of GDP, instead of 400%. And we’d need a Fed that was determined to stop inflation rather than one that was dead set on causing it!
And we’d all have to be 30 years younger, too.
All things considered, we’d gladly go back to the ’80s – if we could do it. But who could possibly believe we could? Only a writer for MONEY magazine.
Yes, if things do go back in time to the ’80s and ’90s, gold will be crushed. That’s a chance we will gladly take.
His reason # 2 is no better. “Sure, the dollar has problems. But just look at the other guys.”
We’re not sure what that is supposed to mean. The whole planet’s monetary system is based on paper currencies, with the dollar at the center of it. Yesterday, the dollar turned down against foreign currencies. But so what? We can’t tell you which of these paper currencies will shrivel up and blow away first…but they’re all going to do so. How do we know that? Well, in all modesty, we admit that we don’t know for sure. We don’t know nothin’ for sure. But every paper currency ever tried – apart from present company – has always disappeared. And none has ever survived a complete credit cycle. They’re okay on the upside. They fall apart on the downside.
We’re on the downside of the credit cycle now. Or not far from it. The dollar won’t survive. And when it begins to limp and cough badly, some investors may go to Chinese yuan or Swiss francs. Most will want to go to real money…the kind you can trust…the kind that never goes away…
…the “last man standing” in a monetary crisis – gold.
MONEY has other reasons for telling readers to stay out of gold. They are no better. And at the end of the article, as if the author were not convinced that he had made his case, he tells readers that if they must get into the yellow metal, they should do so with only 1% of their portfolio. And put the money into an option, not into the real stuff. Then, if the bet pays off, the MONEY reader would get a big payday.
Wait a minute. Picture the MONEY reader. He’s got a $200,000 portfolio. On MONEY’s advice, he keeps it fully invested in a balanced portfolio of equities. Then, he takes $2,000 and buys an option on gold. If gold goes up dramatically, his $2,000 option turns into, say, $20,000. But what has happened to the rest of his portfolio? We don’t know, but there is a good chance that either his option expires worthless – in which case, he loses his $2,000. Or, if it pays off…and gold is soaring…the rest of his portfolio could register far bigger losses than he recovers from his gold play.
Again, MONEY is missing the point. Ordinary people have no business speculating on gold. They should buy the metal as a safety device – to protect themselves from all the dumb policies and speculations of the banks and the Fed itself. The Fed is no longer doing its job. Its reserves are trash – bonds to be paid off by the federal government (which is insolvent) or by underwater homeowners. Since the Fed is derelict, people need to have their own reserves of real money. Gold, in other words.
Meanwhile, California is in the same situation as Portugal, Ireland and Spain. It can’t print its own money. So, it has to take the austerity route. Here’s the latest from Bloomberg:
California’s Brown Unveils $12.5 Billion in Spending Reductions
California Governor Jerry Brown’s budget will cut spending by $12.5 billion, including as much as a 10 percent pay reduction for most state employees, aides said.
The plan, which Brown is to unveil today, will also raise $12 billion by retaining tax increases due to expire and making other modifications. Some of the revenue will go to cities and counties as part of Brown’s plan to transfer spending authority from the state to local governments.
Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning
Bill Bonner
Since founding Agora Inc. in 1979, Bill Bonner has found success and garnered camaraderie in numerous communities and industries. A man of many talents, his entrepreneurial savvy, unique writings, philanthropic undertakings, and preservationist activities have all been recognized and awarded by some of America's most respected authorities. Along with Addison Wiggin, his friend and colleague, Bill has written two New York Times best-selling books, Financial Reckoning Day and Empire of Debt. Both works have been critically acclaimed internationally. With political journalist Lila Rajiva, he wrote his third New York Times best-selling book, Mobs, Messiahs and Markets, which offers concrete advice on how to avoid the public spectacle of modern finance. Since 1999, Bill has been a daily contributor and the driving force behind The Daily Reckoning. Dice Have No Memory: Big Bets & Bad Economics from Paris to the Pampas, the newest book from Bill Bonner, is the definitive compendium of Bill’s daily reckonings from more than a decade: 1999-2010.
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Well, Bill says Gold is a good thing to buy. for insurance. And I all know you waiting now to see if I agree. Well…, I don’t disagree.
As Bill says, most people don’t own Gold. That includes me. I don’t think I have any basis to have much of an opinion on Gold. I try to restrict my opinions to things where I have some basis for the opinion. So I can’t say buy Gold. But much of what Bill says rings true. I don’t really think paper currency is going to collapse. Then again I don’t think my house will burn down, but I still carry insurance.
I did recently graph some data on the price of Gold versus inflation and also discussing whether or not the “End is Nigh”.
The link that article is here:
http://www.investorsfriend.com/December%2014%202010.htm
To my many, many fans on this Board. Your Welcome.
Money magazine is just a shill for lousy mutual funds.
A tax increase in California? Holy Hannah.
Governor Moonbeam, back from the grave.
The question is… if one has bought extra
food, supplies, guns/ammo and still has some reserves, then what?
Put the reminder into:
1) currency
2) stocks
3) bonds
4) real estate
5) a mix of the above
or perhaps, something that isn’t so dependent on government actions going ones way. Something that stands alone, without strings and counter parties attached. Something with thousands of years of track record as a store of value.
Something portable, small, easily carried and concealed. Something that is in demand worldwide.
Gold.
Yes…real gold…and real weapons…and a high voltage fence around your property…and bulletproof jackets…and an armoured car…and grow you own food…and safe you own water/energy supplies…That’s about it.
When people stop laughing at the “gold bugs”, that’s the day I sell my gold. By then it will be worth $1 million per ounce. Thanks for the thoughts Mr. Bonner.
Den (EU):
Also, a moat.
TIF wrote:
“And I all know you waiting now to see if I agree.”
How can someone be so completely egocentric, incapable of simple syntax, and oblivious about basic economic facts, all at once? Read Taleb’s book and come back for a real argument, ok?
I went to a coin shop last week for the first time since I was a kid. Gold is beautiful to look at ,silver shines nicely as well,personally I find there is a natural attraction to the stuff.I have never felt that way about a set of tires. They told me the collector coin business was over ,I was there for bullion anyways.
My point is there are special properties to gold not fully understood without some introspection and even those properties will give way quickly to practical considerations in a crisis.
yet another reason gold is not in a bubble is the spate of articles splayed across the web and in print about how gold is or is not in a bubble
gold is not in a bubble
gold is
everything else ain’t
2fun, perhaps, but my house is on the top of a hill in BG…But in general, adapt your security to your location, be dynamic in your protection. You can also work together with a farm, by taking care of all security there, when there will be chaos and anarchy.
i’ve had this on a “tab” for 2 daze and…….women!!!!
speaking of which, one of my fave’s, “my” 32-y.o. daughter, was home from her work in haiti last month.
as we were driving to one of our remote “safe” locations, together, designing the chemo for our evening together, i was “filling her in” about the perceived problems in the muni/state finances/bonds,
and merideth w.’s warning—-THE woman who had ‘forseen’ the LAST “little hiccup”.
she sez: DAD! THEY WOULD NEVER LET THAT HAPPEN!
no, she hasn’t read taleb, either.
i just read shawn allen’s piece (the investor’s friend). very cogent.
we are MOST fortunate to have the brains, training, and experiential moxie to be attracted to mr. bonner’s ideas, and to interact and dialogue (t.y., plato!) around them, those of us for whom english is NOT a “second language”.
we seem to ALL see the “THEY”.
and we prepare, each of us, for “our” today and tomorrows; holding our cards, talking our “book”, interacting. i make “my” little plays, here and there; you make “yours”. mr. b. makes his, too, and is kind enuf to tell us what he and his colleagues are thinking and lQQking at, too. free!
remember when marshall mccluhan said: the medium IS the message, about the TV and the “new” technology?
now, we have the internet, which is, btw, REALly revolutionary, right?
THEY know it, too.
so BE it, bothers and sisterns.
amen.
Isn’t the Chinese yuan some kind of forward contract that is US$-denominated but undeliverable? (That’s how they make it not subject to exchange.)
So how could the yuan be a realistic substitute for the dollar?
One thing I fail to understand is that why most analysts are recommending the purchase of Gold as a safe investment? The problem today is that the price of Gold is not derived by it’s physical demand or supply but more by the speculative positions standing long or short on the commodity exchange like any other traded commodity, stock or currency.
The basic mechanism of price discovery (based on demand and supply for actual use) of anything traded on an exchange has been terminally infected by speculators having access to unlimited funds and super fast computers for trading leading to volatile price swings. This has been made worse by the launch of ETFs for anything and everything under the sun by the financial community.
The price of everything including Gold is likely to suffer when the speculators unwind their positions due to some event that they have not anticipated or foreseen.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24581.html
So far, I’ve been unable to understand the thinking of most of my friends who still have not diversified their portfolios away fro the shaky
So far I have been unable to understand the thinking of my friends who have yet to diversify their portfolios with gold, and silver. It’s amazing to me the apathy with which the “Sheeple”continue to function.
Having seen their life savings erode by at least 25% in stocks, they continue to believe the crap coming from CNN and other so called Pundits of the left.I am considered paranoid when I suggest things are less than what appears on television, and that they might wish to stock up on food, and other essentials, not to mention gold.Oh, well. To each his own. Me? I’d rather be safe, than sorry. Thanks for your thoughtful insights, Bill.
I’d say it’s a great insurance investment – just don’t buy too much of it, and split it 70/30 gold/silver.
I see buying gold is getting difficult. See this note regarding demand from a UK vendor of gold bullion:
Recent Demand – January 2011
Due to the recent price fluctuations and heavy demand, we currently have a backlog of order for bullion and newly minted sovereigns, please note we are happy to sell them but orders will be fulfilled in rotation.
For secondary market sovereigns, as at January 2011, our best estimate is six – seven months. The last order we fulfilled was from 5th July 2010. Exact delays are unpredictable for reasons which should be obvious, but we will spell them out. For secondary market sovereigns, we are reliant on people selling sovereigns to us; sometimes we can top up by buying from other dealers, mainly from overseas. When world demand is also strong, this is difficult.
Investors Friend states the 30 year Treasury buyers are voting with their wallets. Are not the buyers of gold doing likewise? How can both positions be sound??
Is gold a good investment?
As the author points out, gold is still tremendously out of favour with investors: both retail and professional. Although I wasn’t an active investor in the early 80’s, I’ve heard it was a completely different story.
No doubt we will reach a bubble in gold, but it looks a couple of years away. In the meantime, gold is likely to appreciate further.
Read more: http://www.gold-investing-info.com/gold-a-good-investment.html