02/28/08
We do much on this blog and at our parent Daily Reckoning site to chronicle the slow, inexorable decline of the U.S. Empire, but a new poll shows perceptions are racing ahead of reality.
A few days ago, Gallup asked 1000 Americans this question: "Which one of the following do you think is the leading economic power in the world today?" A list of five countries plus the European Union followed.
When Gallup posed this same question in 2000, a solid majority (65%) of those polled replied the United States.
Now a plurality — 40% — say it's China. Another 33% say it's the United States.
The reality is quite different. Measured in nominal GDP, the EU just edges out the United States, followed by Japan, EU member Germany, and then China. If you prefer the purchasing power parity measure of GDP, the top two slots remain unchanged, but China moves up to #3. Depending on who's doing the measuring, China's GDP remains barely half that of the United States.
Of course, raw GDP stats don't tell the whole story — like what percentage of GDP comprises consumer spending — but it's interesting that in early 2008, Americans actually exaggerate the erosion of its status as world economic power. I leave it to you in the comments section to speculate why.
Dave Gonigam
Treading a fine line between contrarian thinking and conspiracy theory, Dave Gonigam explores the nexus of finance, politics, and the media for Agora Financial's 5 Minute Forecast. He joined kindred spirits at Agora Financial in 2007 after a 20-year career as an Emmy award-winning writer, producer, and manager in local TV newsrooms nationwide.
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Because they are basing their assessment on the erosion of their personal, actual financial situations instead of the delusional, tortured, official government statistics of GDP?
State-run Chinese media, versus 24/7 American “infotainment news.” Also, people are thinking about relative changes; the USA slipped a bunch, but is still on top. China on the other hand, went form a bunch of peasant farmers to what can realistically be called an “out of control boom.”
Prediction; they will go exactly the way of 1980s Japan. Oh, and the dollar will continue to lose vale.
Well, looks like that ” home sweet home ” which use to skyrocket in price till 2005 was a big part of the GDP ( about 20 trillion $). AND about PERCEPTION of GDP!
Now, when the value of ” home sweet home” is moving about the same like a rock thrown in a pond, still is a big part of the GDP… and perception about it!…
I have to add on the top of that the reality – not perception – of those green-peachy pieces of paper which everybody use to call ” dollars ” ?
And…
But is too much already…I’ll stop here!
When people go to the store and buy real things, the tag says “Made in China”. Deep down, people know that manufacturing and economic power go hand in hand.
It’s because all of the wealth in the US in concentrated in the hands of a very few select individuals. America looks poor to most Americans because most Americans really are poor. They don’t see the billionaries so they don’t think about them.
It’s because all of the wealth in the US in concentrated in the hands of a very few select individuals. America looks poor to most Americans because most Americans really are poor; they don’t see the billionaries so they don’t think about them.