The Dow Jones Industrial Average is climbing again this morning, as we put the finishing touches on today’s edition of The Daily Reckoning. The Blue Chip index is up more than 100 points to 12,727 – its highest level in two months.
Today’s advance continues what has become a rally of more than 500 points since the Greek government agreed to “accept” more bailouts from the European Union and the IMF. To infer from the stock market, therefore, the Greek crisis has passed. Problem solved.
Testifying against this rosy conclusion are at least two intriguing news items. The first is that Moody’s banished Portugal into the dungeon of “junk credits” earlier this week. Greece, which has been inhabiting this dungeon for several weeks already, may be content to have a new cellmate. But European bond investors are less enthralled.
Don’t pity the Greeks and the Portuguese. They will find a way to amuse themselves in the midst of their financial incarceration. Though they speak different native languages, they understand the universal language very well – the global dialect of insolvency. In fact, they understand this dialect much better than their creditors.
“Bankruptcy” may look like πτώχευση in Greek and bancarrota in Portuguese. But the Greeks and the Portuguese both understand that sovereign bankruptcy in Europe means great, big handouts from their neighbors. It means “promise a bunch of stuff, but do almost nothing until the money runs out.” After that, bankruptcy will mean what it always means: the borrowers will stiff the lenders and life will move on.
The Greeks and the Portuguese will emerge from their dungeon, free from the shackles of debt and austerity, with pocketfuls of drachma and escudos.
How do we know that the story will play out this way? Well, we don’t, but it always does. And one reason we think the bankrupt nations will continue begging money until they ultimately declare bankruptcy is that the Greeks are already at it again.
“Barely a day after a multibillion-dollar bailout from the IMF,” Investors’ Business Daily reports, “Greece’s prime minister has his hand out again for yet another loan, this one from Europe. Has his mendicant state become the Oliver Twist of nations?”
Yes, is the obvious answer. But why not beg when the begging is so easy? Papandreou is asking the European Union to lend Greece another $173 billion, on top of the $156 billion bailout the EU and IMF have already approved, and partially dispensed.
“Successive rescues, guarantees and bailouts have put the grand total spent so far at $394 billion,” Investors’ Business Daily relates. “But Europe seems oblivious to reality as it scrambles to find more money… The London Telegraph points out that the second bailout sought by Greece is likely to last only until 2014 and will leave an even bigger debt after that. Someone will have to pay.
“So maybe the roots of the problem – unfunded mandates and a bloated public sector – ought to be targeted as much as Greece’s parlous fiscal picture,” the IBD continues. “The IMF mega-package addresses just one side of the problem – fiscal accounts. What it doesn’t do is address the entire socialist nature of the system that has made a hash of its finances…IMF loans may keep the government afloat, but it’s that very government that’s keeping the private sector from rescuing Greece for real.
“Bailout in hand,” the IBD winds up, “Greece remains a thicket of price-fixing that distorts markets, clientelism that gives some citizens – generally state employees – privileges over others, and massive regulation of the private sector that encourages tax evasion, idleness and finger-pointing… Papandreou’s call for more money after the IMF bailout is a clear signal of a flawed economic model.”
“I think this will ultimately be a case in which the doctors kill the patient,” predicts Johns Hopkins University economist, Steve Hanke.
Maybe so, but we would put our bet on the patients killing the doctors. Or, to return to our metaphor, the inmates killing the wardens. One way or another, the debtor nations of Europe will stick it to their creditors. Not while the bailout funds are still flowing…but probably a few minutes after they stop.
Governments, as a capitalistic investment, are a very bad bet. Since they do not produce, they are genetically predisposed to failing financially. Corporations also go bankrupt, of course, but many succeed…often in spectacular fashion.
Because of these dynamics, genuine capitalists owe it to themselves to invest in capitalistic enterprises, while also trying to shun habitual consumers of capital like governments.
Eric Fryfor The Daily Reckoning
Eric J. Fry, Agora Financial's Editorial Director, has been a specialist in international equities for nearly two decades. He was a professional portfolio manager for more than 10 years, specializing in international investment strategies and short-selling. Following his successes in professional money management, Mr. Fry joined the Wall Street-based publishing operations of James Grant, editor of the prestigious Grant's Interest Rate Observer. Working alongside Grant, Mr. Fry produced Grant's International and Apogee Research, institutional research products dedicated to international investment opportunities and short selling.
Mr. Fry subsequently joined Agora Inc., as Editorial Director. In this role, Mr. Fry supervises the editorial and research processes of numerous investment letters and services. Mr. Fry also publishes investment insights and commentary under his own byline as Editor of The Daily Reckoning. Mr. Fry authored the first comprehensive guide to investing internationally with American Depository Receipts. His views and investment insights have appeared in numerous publications including Time, Barron's, Wall Street Journal, International Herald Tribune, Business Week, USA Today, Los Angeles Times and Money.
Where would the fertilizer industry be without governments?
Here is a link to a South African news website article a bit off topic, but very interesting as far as making the wrong economic decisions are concerned.
Its starts off like this [linkl to follow] :
“Weakening the rand not the way to wealth
July 7 2011 at 12:37pm
By Russell Lamberti
International trade is one of the most misunderstood issues in economics. The common misguided narrative goes something like this: exports are good and imports are bad, therefore exports should be promoted by industrial policies, while imports should be curtailed as much as possible by industrial policies.
This is the basic thinking behind the poorly conceived New Growth Path and the Industrial Policy Action Plan proposals……………” – link for further reading : http://www.iol.co.za/business/opinion/columnists/weakening-the-rand-not-the-way-to-wealth-1.1095153
The Cold War introduced the world to a terrifying new phrase: mutually assured destruction. Thankfully the cold war ended without ever realizing this outcome. But the remnants of that "balance of terror" between the US and Russia still exist... and are beginning to surface in the financial sector. Jim Rickards explains...
'Tis the season for fall market predictions. But don't dust off that crystal ball just yet. Good traders don't try to predict when an important price move is going to happen - they just react when it does. However, as Greg Guenthner explains, forecasts can help you manage your risk/reward, as well as your non-trading portfolio. Read on...
The US Social Security program is complete mess. The funds needed to pay these benefits are quickly drying up, and agreeable solutions are in short supply. But all is not lost... There actually IS a viable way to "save" Social Security. But as Dave Gonigam explains, you're probably not going to like it. Read on...
This summer, the worst Ebola outbreak ever recorded hit sub-Saharan Africa. But the greatest danger, as Stephen Petranek explains, is that the virus will have a chance to mutate into a form that spreads more easily. And if that happens, there will be far reaching consequences - from both a health and an investment side. Read on...
Everyone in the world has a unique talent or skill that someone else might find useful. Whether it's editing video, speaking Spanish or even eating paper, chances are there is someone out there willing to pay for what you have to offer. Today, Chris Campbell shows you one way to find those consumers and how to make your skill work for you...