“Every Single Human Being” Should Short Treasuries
No, the headline is not a paid promotion for The Daily Reckoning’s new and current Trade of the Decade… but it sure sounds like one. Author of “The Black Swan,” Nassim Nicholas Taleb, reflecting upon the fiscal and monetary policies in the US, sees it as a “no brainer” that “every single human being should have that trade.”
According to BusinessWeek:
“Taleb said investors should bet on a rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, as long as Bernanke and White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers are in office, without being more specific.
“The Fed and U.S. agencies have lent, spent or guaranteed $9.66 trillion to lift the economy from the worst recession since the Great Depression, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. President Barack Obama has increased the U.S. marketable debt to a record $7.27 trillion as he tries to sustain the recovery from last year’s recession. Obama projects the U.S. budget deficit will rise to a record $1.6 trillion in the 2011 fiscal year.”
In an article earlier this year, and decade, Bill Bonner also cited promise in expecting a profit from a Treasury decline, part of our new Trade of the Decade:
“[US Treasury] yields have been going down (meaning, the price of debt is going up) since 1983. And now, despite a supply that seems to be going off the charts, demand for Treasury bonds, notes and bills has never been stronger. What’s more…if our analysis of the US economy is correct…the supply of Treasury debt is going to continue to rocket upward for many years. Deficits of $1 trillion to $2 trillion per year are going to become commonplace.
“How long will it be before the market in Treasury debt crashes? How long will it be before hyperinflation…or a debt default…sends investors running for cover? We don’t know…but it seems a likely bet that it will happen sometime in the next 10 years.
“So, on our sell side…we’ll put US Treasury debt […] our Trade of the Decade: Sell US Treasury debt/Buy Japanese stocks.”
Of course, it’s still as early as can be in this decade-long strategy, but the trade is on. You can read the complete article covering Taleb’s views on shorting US Treasuries in BusinessWeek.