03/16/11 Baltimore, Maryland – “…little electricity or gasoline…” reports an eyewitness from The Washington Post, visiting Sendai, Japan. “Nearly all restaurants and shops are closed…roads blocked…supplies depleted…the devastation is catastrophic.”
“Fuel almost non-existent…survivors will spend a fourth night in near freezing temperatures without food or water…”
We were elaborating on the benefits of having a family stronghold…a retreat…a bolthole somewhere. When the going gets tough, you need a tough place to go to.
Oh yes…dear reader…the world is a dangerous place. Just so far this year, we’ve seen two big blow-ups – one in the Arab countries…the other in Japan.
Neither was expected. What’s next?
Obviously, we don’t know. If it’s a big, nasty surprise, we hope we’re not here in Bethesda, Maryland, when it comes.
Why? Because the supermarkets would be cleaned out in minutes…the gas stations would run dry…and we’d be trapped in a hostile environment. We’re only here temporarily, while our youngest son finishes high school nearby. We have no family. Few friends. And none of the deep roots you need to survive a prolonged period of crisis and breakdown. Here, we are just anonymous passers-by… We would have to depend on the kindness of strangers and the competence of government officials.
What do you need to survive a disaster? First, you need access to water. As we’ve seen in Japan, even the most developed and sophisticated infrastructure in the world can collapse when it is struck by an earthquake and a tsunami. Public water pipes break. It can take weeks or months to replace them – assuming the government and local utilities are still functioning.
That’s why it’s a good idea to have your own private source of water – a spring, a well, a small, clean stream. Failing that, you should have enough water stocked up to last at least a couple weeks.
Then, you need to worry about food. How long could you live on what is in your refrigerator? We could make it for about 24 hours. Then, it would be slim pickings. And what if the supermarket were closed? What if the 7-11 were stripped bare? What if trucks couldn’t make deliveries?
Well, surely the president would call out the National Guard. Yes, if everything is working as it should…and the National Guard doesn’t have more important things to worry about.
Just as a precaution, you should maintain a stock of canned goods and dried food. Enough to last two weeks is the minimum. A month is better. Then, rotate your stock – don’t leave it untouched for so long it goes bad.
Having an inventory of basic foodstuffs and water is essential. It will keep you calm. You won’t be in desperate straits. It will give you time to carefully assess the situation and choose your best option.
Option?
Well, yes. What if the breakdown stays broken down for months? War…hyperinflation…a full collapse of the financial or political system – the crisis could take many months to run its course. In the meantime, supply and distribution systems may be severely or completely interrupted. You need a strategy.
And that’s where the family stronghold comes into play. First, you must be able to get there. When we were confronted with the Y2K crisis more than a decade ago, we lived in Paris. Maybe the French bureaucrats would be able to maintain order…and maybe they wouldn’t. We just kept our tank full of gas, just in case. It only took one tank of gas to get out to our country house. We figured we’d wait for the desperate mobs to leave the streets. Then we’d drive out of the city and make our way to the country. Once there, we had food stockpiled in the pantry and firewood ricked up to the eves in the barn. There were cattle on-the-hoof in the fields and chickens in the henhouse.
Your stronghold should be a place where you can live almost indefinitely – on local resources. It doesn’t mean you have to have everything you need on your own property. But you have what it takes to trade with your friends and neighbors to get what you need. You may have to barter for a cow…or vegetables…with the local farmers, for example. You may have to improvise with tools and machinery. You will almost certainly get your hands dirty. And you should keep on hand some small gold and silver coins. They could be useful.
Of course, your standard of living will surely go down – at least in money terms.
But some people actually yearn for simpler, more “authentic” lives. Some find genuine satisfaction in small community life, with heavy emphasis on self-sufficiency and survival skills. As for us, we’re never happier than when we’re cutting firewood or planting a garden. Keep your laptops and your hard drives. Give us a wrench and a hammer! Dining “al fresco” on “dinde aux groseilles” at a fancy restaurant is fine…but we’re just as happy eating a turkey sandwich outside in the yard.
A breakdown in complex civilization? Bring it on! Well, maybe not…
Regards,
Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning
Bill Bonner
Since founding Agora Inc. in 1979, Bill Bonner has found success and garnered camaraderie in numerous communities and industries. A man of many talents, his entrepreneurial savvy, unique writings, philanthropic undertakings, and preservationist activities have all been recognized and awarded by some of America's most respected authorities. Along with Addison Wiggin, his friend and colleague, Bill has written two New York Times best-selling books, Financial Reckoning Day and Empire of Debt. Both works have been critically acclaimed internationally. With political journalist Lila Rajiva, he wrote his third New York Times best-selling book, Mobs, Messiahs and Markets, which offers concrete advice on how to avoid the public spectacle of modern finance. Since 1999, Bill has been a daily contributor and the driving force behind The Daily Reckoning. Dice Have No Memory: Big Bets & Bad Economics from Paris to the Pampas, the newest book from Bill Bonner, is the definitive compendium of Bill’s daily reckonings from more than a decade: 1999-2010.
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Sounds like you are going Amish, Bill.
Amish? I was thinking it sounded more like the author of the unabomber manifesto, our buddy Ted K.
If the events in Japan are any guide, no amount of stock piling of water, food stuffs, or even gold, would have made one iota of difference.
As an article stated today, black swans every year now. I live on a rural spread with well and septic, plenty of firewood, RV is kept full of gas, safe is full of guns, got 2 very large dogs and the pantry is stocked. Got a few animals that could be eaten in an emergency. I need a bag of junk silver for trading with the neighbors. But I am not too sure any of that will do much good since I cringe at the thought of the air conditioning, DSL and DirecTV going down. I guess we could make it as long as it’s temporary. We didn’t adopt this lifestyle in anticipation of societal breakdown, we just evolved into it for a change from the city life.
“Of course, your standard of living will surely go down”
Hardly. What you describe *is* my standard of living and I have no complaints.
But you knew that. Thanks once again Mr. Bonner for an excellent treatment of a seemingly complicated yet deceptively simple subject.
So Dave,
If everyone does like you will the world be a safer/better place?
I think if everyone thinks like you we truly are doomed
Exactlly what I’ve been doing for months now. As soon as the dollar loses it’s status as global reserve currency, the markets will crash and chaos will be in the streets. Anyone who critisized this article is living in a fairy tale world. Be prepared. It is coming.
There is a great new book out called, “Surviving Off Off-Grid”. I highly recommend it after reading it. If you search google you should be able to find it. It is available on Amazon.com or through http://www.offoffgrid.com
So Face it.
What about Dave’s comment scares you so much?
Bill,
The truth is, most people would curl up in a ball and die here in the U.S. rather than do without their perceived essentials. Most people think that there is a magical Genie in the back of every grocery store, waving a magic wand, blinking or however it is that Genies make their respective magic. These Genies are back their filling stock rooms with Frosted Flakes, Milk, and eggs to fill each citizen’s belly.
My family is fortunate enough to live an extremely rural area. On our property is a spring that is gravity fed to our home, no electricity required. The problem is that I am sure that more then one person in my area may know this. I suppose that in the best situation this may make a decent bartering point. In the worst scenario it may require a little ingenious defense. We have a quarter acre garden and this year we are using heirloom seeds, so we can harvest the seeds and use them indefinitely. In dry summers we haul water from a local creek. I hunt and usually find deer and small game on ours and some adjacent property, in season of course. I have a small supply of silver, but love to collect it. This is just a small list that my wife and I do to save money. Let’s be real here. Although I find doing these things extremely satisfying, we need to get serious for a moment. There is nothing quaint or easy about it. In fact it is quite hard. Pests in the garden, weeding and prepping the garden in the spring, hauling water ten gallons at a time to the garden, processing the vegetables and fruit in the fall, composting, cleaning out the spring in the spring or after a heavy rain, processing venison is not for the weak of constitution, these are just a peek at my honey-do list throughout the year.
I think the average person, not use to this work would start sobbing when the first blister rose on their hand. After that, they would just sit down and die.
Readers may make light of the Amish, but I have a family of Amish who live about a mile up my road and they make excellent bartering partners. They are full of wisdom about living a simpler existence, and are just about the best neighbors a family could ask for. I wish everyone the best in their plans, and remember the KISS principle, which is Keep It Simple Stupid, and you should do well.
but if your stronghold gets completely destroyed as well?
I read a lot about preppers, some good ideas and some far fetched. I do not foresee a scenario that would cause a massive breakdown of our society. If it did happen there are enough examples of how it would go down, generally it becomes a police state and not very pretty.
But more then likely we are and will continue to experience a decline of our standard of living. Unfortunately, it will be at a faster pace then we are currently enduring. Investing in the future looks more like preserving what you have.
Man… the doom and gloom crowd is going mainstream, I thought it was just the nuts, fruits and flakes over on James Howard Kustler’s blog site that were into this.
Folks…relax, the sky is not falling!
That’s correct, everything’s fine. Economy improving.
These are not the droids you’re looking for…
You want to know what is next? Pick up a copy of my book “Das Capital” and find out.
I misread at first and thought you said a “wench” and a hammer….
Other than you and your son who is there, how much family do you have? That sounds like most family is there.
I like this. People actually waking up and realizing that many things can change and very quickly sometimes. Human history is full of these type of changes. That is one thing we all know. Things can and no doubt will change. For the better, for the worse who knows. What ever happens we can adapt and adapt quickly when we need to. If not you die. History not only shows us where we have been but also shows us where we are going. Besides there is no species on this planet that is not challenged for survival. Complacency is not your friend.
I own several shotguns and a cluster of hand guns with plenty of ammunition on standby. Regardless of how much food is in my garden I don’t think I’ll have a hard time finding someone offering new goods during this type of hysteria, if it ever happened.
Firearms are fine and a good idea.
Just remember that you’re not the only one with that idea.
Alot of folks think they will survive complete societal breakdown on their own. Maybe.
But imagine a desperate gang of 8 – 15 – 35 people with an assortment of firearms just as interested in not starving to death as anyone else. Does anyone really think they’re going to fend that off because they’ve logged a dozen hours of range time with an AR-15 over the past year?
EXPECT all of your planning to go right out the window if anything really serious happens.
I hope with all of the love that I have for this country that we’ll work together peaceably to get through whatever comes.
It profits a man nothing to gain the whole world and lose his soul. How much less for a pantry of beans and canned peaches?
Wake the heck up, John….. the sky (is) falling my friend.
There must be a few frogs in the pot not even aware that they are beginning to boil. They are completely naive to the fact that society has broken down already. Possibly because the breakdown hasn’t kicked their ass yet. If one can’t see that our leadership at all levels has been corrupted by sheer greed and deceit and lies. We have experienced as a people, moral pole shifts that in the long term will be far more devastating than any magnetic pole shift. Can anyone tell me that ravaging the planet with war is not indicative of a society that has completely melted down. Are we all so lost that we really don’t think that there will be a price to pay for the devastation brought about in our names. This society is broken. Don,t be fooled by a good meal and a comfy bed into thinking that it is not. It just hasn’t reached you yet.
aint possible to have a societal breakdown as the teachers union will make sure the vulture leeches they represent will force you off your lands and work at gunpoint to get their wages as their jobs are “insured” while your attempts to breakaway from society by necessity will be impossible while holding any possessions ….seems “ownership” eas a devalued right………….
Whatever the outcome, this isn’t a time to be faint at heart. The future isn’t for wimps~ When you see the truth clearly, you know how to use it freely. It doesn’t require judgement, analysis, or understanding. If you haven’t seen the truth clearly, your like a bird in a cage, a fish in the bucket,”all victims of fear patterns”. Life/Bird uses flight or Life/Fish uses water. There’s no reflection. Life/Human are prepared for whatever is coming to them, whatever it is. Make Life/Living an adventure!
Everything is happening, just as I predicted it would.
The funny thing about the Y2K “crisis” is that after all the hoopla, nothing happened. At the time, there were radio commentators saying that Martial Law would be declared. Guess what? Not only wasn’t Martial Law declared, but NOTHING HAPPENED. Where are your French cows now?
To the many posts on this board espousing the idea that being prepared is not a sound theory, consider this. Man is one of the few organisms on this planet who borough (yes, that’s what we do in our homes.) but, makes no plans for lean times. Bees make honey, Ants store harvested food, Bears fatten themselves and hibernate, Man shops for today, goes to Burger King for take out and tomorrow’s plan is to wait for the government to show up and hand out what they need if disaster strikes.
To those of you who believe that your guns are all you need to survive, believe me, if you have only ever shot at a target, drawing down on a man is going to be much harder. There is an old saying. In war if a trip must be made, be sure your enemy is making the trip. Imagine approaching an unfamiliar house in a rural location that you see a pillar of smoke coming out of. Trust me they will see you before you get into range. As soon as they put up a little resistance you will move on. Remember they haven’t missed a meal and feel pretty robust. How will you be doing at this point! Bill is right on the money, failing to prepare is preparing to fail!
A societal collapse would be interesting. It would be fun to watch a Goldman banker try to disembowel a chicken. Its not nearly as easy as eviscerating a taxpayer.
@ Jes,
I’d gut it for him. The fact I would charge him 1oz of gold to do it would be the funny thing! Heck, I might even throw in the chicken.
Everyone, make sure you all are stocking piling food and water (6 months worth)at your house…tell all your family, friends, neighbors, etc…without starting a panic around town! Its going to get ugly in the US within the next 6 months..or sooner.
I can’t get family to listen to me. They think I’m some kind of survival nut when I start talking about stocking up on food, water, ammo, gold, silver etc. We live in a bigger city and I’m very concerned about being able to protect all of us unless we’re all on the same page. It keeps me up at night. My brother is incarcerated in the Dept of Corrections and I can’t help but wonder if many won’t soon envy the relative security that the state has an obligation to provide him…
There really isn’t any thing to worry about if you are worried about survival. Do you actually think that those in power have not planned for this very scenario. They have been planning for an event like this for years. Be calm and just remember 1984 is just around the corner. Big brother has everything under control.