“Investors Now Fear Fiscal Cliff More Than Weak Economy,” read a headline on USAToday this week.
According to the article, even though stocks are getting pumped up to their highest level in nearly five years… surveys conducted by people who care about this kind of thing say investors fear the “potential growth-crimping one-two punch of rising taxes and government spending cuts set to kick in Jan. 1” will impact their portfolios more than the lack of new jobs being created in the economy.
Next week, they’ll probably be hyped up about Iran again or something.
The good thing about being a cynic is you don’t get caught up in these fuzzy-thinking debates. We even had to look up the term “fiscal cliff” to find out its DNA. It’s a term Democrats apparently wield to scare voters into thinking they’d be better off with higher taxes.
Today, we open with a look at a story that could have much more far-reaching implications for your wallet and your portfolio than the “fiscal cliff” might ever have.
“You probably don’t realize this,” our Laissez Faire editor Doug French writes, “but your finances are standing behind more than a trillion dollars of the bank deposits of large corporations and municipalities housed at America’s largest banks.
“It all began in 2008,” Mr. French goes on, “as it usually does.
“During the crash, the FDIC instituted the TAG (Transaction Account Guarantee) program. TAG provides unlimited coverage for noninterest-bearing transaction accounts. These are typically checking and payroll accounts for corporations and government entities and possibly large personal accounts.
“Taxpayers are backing the equivalent of the federal deficit in TAG deposits alone,” Doug explains. “The vast majority of these deposits are held by the top five banks.”
“With the Fed stomping down interest rates to zero, banks are paying but a few basis points in interest-bearing accounts,” Mr. French writes. “Depositors are permitted to forgo that puny bit of interest in exchange for complete FDIC insurance protection. That’s a trade-off worth embracing.
“How has this changed the money market?” Doug asks, letting Jim Grant explain: “Zero-percent interest rates and blanket FDIC guarantees of bank deposits reconfigured what used to be a market in short-dated IOUs of the private sector,” writes Grant in his latest Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. “Today’s money market is increasingly a market of short-dated IOUs of the public sector.”
“Corporate cash, then,” Doug writes, “has been redirected from productive uses in the private economy toward lying fallow in large bank balance sheets.”
“When a given claim yields nothing,” Grant continues, “the prudent investor will roll Treasury bills or — functionally the same thing — lay up deposits at a too-big-to-fail bank.”
According to American Banker, the percentage of corporate cash in bank accounts in May stood at 51%. Comparing that to 42% last year, and 23% in 2006, we think something might be brewing here…
“According to the FDIC,” Doug continues, “noninterest-bearing deposits for the top five banks have swelled by over 100% since 2008, when the FDIC put TAG in place. You can get an idea of the shift by looking at the demand deposits at commercial banks generally.
“This is a direct result of Ben Bernanke’s policy of zero interest plus the FDIC/congressional policy of unlimited deposit guarantees,” Doug points out. “Corporations are trading interest for safety, or at least the illusion of safety.”
The big picture: The FDIC Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) is now $22.7 billion, but it represents only a tiny fraction of the $7.1 trillion in total deposits it backstops. Heh. The Problem Bank List website sums it up thus. The DIF:
“is equivalent to trying to protect yourself with an umbrella in the middle of a Category 3 hurricane. The collapse of one of the ‘too big to fail’ banks would immediately require the FDIC to seek financial assistance from the U.S. Treasury. During the height of the financial crisis, the FDIC was granted a line of credit with the U.S. Treasury for up to $500 billion.”
“TAG,” Doug explains, “the umbrella in the metaphor, is scheduled to expire at the end of this year. Like so many other government intrusions, it was a temporary fix.
“Two years later and bankers are addicted and don’t want to give it up.”
“The Fed’s zero interest rate policy already has banks under margin pressure,” Doug continues. “A flood of funding encouraged by the FDIC’s emergency TAG insurance for noninterest-bearing deposits causes bank managements to take on even more risk for more yield. That turns into something all-too-familiar: zombie banks doing stupid things.
“Are the politicians worried? Nope. TAG has plenty of supporters on Capitol Hill.
“Far from supporting economic growth, as supporters of TAG suggest, the FDIC insurance for TAG-eligible deposits actually spurs unsafe and unsound banking practices. In the case of JPM, the result of the nearly 10% increase in total assets caused by the ‘flight to quality’ encouraged by TAG was a significant increase in risk taking.
“Banking lobbyists may cry for an extension of the TAG program to stimulate economic growth or jobs. In reality, TAG is simply another act of government intervention to benefit the big banks at the expense of small banks and customers.”
On Jan. 1, 1934, deposit insurance went nationwide with deposits up to $2,500 covered (roughly $41,000 today). “Now,” Mr. French writes, “not quite 80 years later, U.S. deposit insurance coverage has gone from an inflation-adjusted $41,000 to unlimited.
“What backs up this whole system? Not capital. Not wealth. It’s just paper, paper printed by government. With unlimited deposit insurance, that financial nuclear explosion can happen any minute,” Doug concludes. “And you will be left to pick up the pieces.”
Ah, yes. At least the bailouts were successful.
for The Daily Reckoning
Addison Wiggin is the executive publisher of Agora Financial, LLC, a fiercely independent economic forecasting and financial research firm. He's the creator and editorial director of Agora Financial's daily 5 Min. Forecast and editorial director of The Daily Reckoning. Wiggin is the founder of Agora Entertainment, executive producer and co-writer of I.O.U.S.A., which was nominated for the Grand Jury Prize at the 2008 Sundance Film Festival, the 2009 Critics Choice Award for Best Documentary Feature, and was also shortlisted for a 2009 Academy Award. He is the author of the companion book of the film I.O.U.S.A.and his second edition of The Demise of the Dollar, and Why it's Even Better for Your Investments was just fully revised and updated. Wiggin is a three-time New York Times best-selling author whose work has been recognized by The New York Times Magazine, The Economist, Worth, The New York Times, The Washington Post as well as major network news programs. He also co-authored international bestsellers Financial Reckoning Day and Empire of Debt with Bill Bonner.
The clock is ticking down to April 15th. TaxBot founder, Sandy Botkin, outlines the five big tax changes for 2015 you need know before you file...
Look, we're not contrarian just for the sake of being contrarian. Only idiots are. And yes, the market will eventually drop. But the charts will tell us when it's time to sell. And right now, they're screaming "BUY". There's simply no other way to put it.
The trouble with money printing, explains David Stockman, is that it's responsible for Tesla. Armed with earnings figures, he shreds the company’s visage to pieces...
This year, we expect China to reveal just how much gold it owns. Today, our friend, Frank Holmes, gives his insight on how China could buy even more gold in the near future. And we’ve got every reason to believe it could upset the gold markets any day now, with great results for gold investors…
Where can you reasonably expect to make 50% in the next six months… and in the oil-patch, no less? The best way to play this short-term opportunity is with a handful of well-positioned refiners. Jody Chudley tells all...
Oil isn't magically jumping to $100 anytime soon. As I said, it could fluctuate around $50 for the foreseeable future. That's great news for businesses using a lot of fuel. Operating costs are way down, which means higher profits. And higher stock prices.