Everyone says the euro is falling apart…that Europe itself can’t survive as a political unit.
Europe seems to lack the things that make for a strong political system. It has no common language, for example (there are more than 200 different languages in Europe). And it has no common culture either…or even a common religion…or a common race.
The Greeks are rioting in the streets. They’re upset because their government is trying to cut back on ‘services.’ Actually, it’s not the services that anyone would miss. It’s the money. The rioters are mostly people who live, in one way or another, at the expense of others…thanks to the government. They work for the government…or get handouts from it.
The poor Greek government is stuck. As in almost all other democracies, politicians bought votes by giving out jobs and money. This leads to a bidding war…in which political parties vie for favor with the voters by offering more and more “services.” One gives away bread. The other prefers circuses. Whether it is food stamps or foreign wars…the price is high. And eventually, the bids go beyond the capacity of the economy to pay them.
Greece is at that point. So are half the US states. They’re out of money. It’s “doomsday” in Illinois, says one headline. It’s a “state of emergency,” in New Jersey.
Lenders don’t want to give them any more money. Wisely, they worry they won’t get paid back. So, lenders demand higher interest rates to cover their increased risks…which puts the Greek budget even further in the red.
The Greeks think the Germans should come to their aid. Why? Because, in a way, it was the Germans who got them into this mess. Nobody would have lent so much money to the Greeks had it not been for the strong teuton-backed euro…and the implicit promise that if the Greeks got into trouble…which everyone knew they would…the rest of Europe would come to their aid.
Well, what do you know? The Greeks are in trouble. And the Germans don’t want to come to their aid. The Germans saved. They ran their own economy better. They are one of the few countries in Europe that is living, almost, within the terms of the treaty they all signed, in which they agreed to keep deficits below 3% of GDP. The German deficit is just a little more than 3%. The Greeks don’t even come close – with a deficit of 12.7%.
In America, the situation is a little different. The economy and the population are more homogenous. And much more of the money is in the hands of the central government. The Germans don’t see why their savings should be used to bail out the Greeks. They’ve got their economy. The Greeks have theirs. In the US, while there are regional differences, there is basically one economy…with one government that messes it up for everyone.
Is the US better off? Does central planning on a larger scale make the US dollar or the US economy stronger?
In fact, the looseness of the European experiment is a strength, not a weakness. What damages a paper currency is not an act of omission; it’s an act of commission. Neglecting to provide more cash and credit is not what kills paper money; on the contrary, it’s the willingness to provide unlimited amounts of it. So far, the Americans are. The Europeans – or at least the Germans – are not.
So, we’ll bet on the euro over the long term…both the euro and the dollar are “elastic” currencies. They both get stretched out of shape. But there are more people pulling at the dollar than the euro.
In the short run, anything could happen. There are probably more reasons for the dollar to go up than for it to go down. But in the long run, our money is on the euro.
for The Daily Reckoning
Since founding Agora Inc. in 1979, Bill Bonner has found success in numerous industries. His unique writing style, philanthropic undertakings and preservationist activities have been recognized by some of America's most respected authorities. With his friend and colleague Addison Wiggin, he co-founded The Daily Reckoning in 1999, and together they co-wrote the New York Times best-selling books Financial Reckoning Day and Empire of Debt. His other works include Mobs, Messiahs and Markets (with Lila Rajiva), Dice Have No Memory, and most recently, Hormegeddon: How Too Much of a Good Thing Leads to Disaster. His most recent project is The Bill Bonner Letter.
Equities have been rising on a very strong dollar. They’ll rise faster on a weaker dollar. As always, I recommend buying stocks.
We saw again today that manufacturing is expanding and spending is on the rise. These both support my case for a very strong growth rate moving forward. I won’t even say “recovery” because we’ve left that phase. Now with all the M&A and strong economic numbers, we’re firmly in the growth phase again.
I’m pretty sure the folks in North Dakota would like to tell those in Illinois to “go fish”. These financial problems of the various states may effect the cohesiveness of our majority-rule Democracy.
So I was on the prowl today to buy some gold Canadian Maple Leafs at the local coin store…next to me was a WWII veteran (I found this out with a 10 minute side conversation)…he’s getting ready to pay cash for his 10 1oz Gold American Eagles…he looks down at his stack of 100s…looks at me and says “I can’t believe anyone accepts this fiat rubbish.” Besides almost peeing myself from laughter (funny cuz it’s true) it made me think of that bastard Richard Nixon who took us off the gold standard. Thanks for nothing Dick N! At least we can still trade our “fiat rubbish” for gold!
I thought we were in a race to the bottom, or a race to zero.
Or is it a meandering stroll to O?
Hairy : what growth are you talking about exactly, if not in the size of government.
Harry reminds me of one of those annoying infomercials.
Is it just me or is Bill’s column now starting to read more bullish than the national media again, i think we are close to the next leg down.
Harry, I will relish your whimpering appologies with glee, just hope you continue to buy, buy, buy, buy all the way down to dow 1000…
Proofreading goof: Your subhead in the main article contains a very common grammar error.
It reads, “The euro may be struggling right now, but it’s long-term outlook is promising.”
In fact, the sentence should read “its long-term outlook…” There’s no apostrophe in this usage of “its.”
“It’s”—with an apostrophe—is always and only a contraction, never a possessive.
My nit-picking aside, it’s (contraction) a great and succinct article.
A couple of days ago, Mr. Bonner wrote “there” instead of “their”, but I didn`t mention it out of politeness…well, I did now. Guess even the pros make mistakes once in a while…
I’ve spoken with countless traders in my time—from pros to wannabes. And the gamblers outnumber the consistent winners 10-to-1. Sure, gamblers can make hit it big with just one bet. A gambler might even catch a hot streak and double his trading account in a matter of months. But if you asked that same gambler to maintain his successes while limiting his losses (or to consistently grow his account year after year) he’d fail 9 times out of 10.
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These suckers have dragged down the entire market for months. It’s been a tale of two Dows. The Dow Jones Transportation Average has dropped more than 8% on the year. But the Dow Jones Industrial Average has just about broken even over the same period. That shows you just how bad the trannies have been.
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