05/09/09 Baltimore, Maryland Nothing like peeling a Band-Aid off slowly… The Treasury concluded its painstaking six-week stress tests late yesterday and announced (gasp) the 19 American banks under stress need to raise $75 billion if they plan to stay in business.
Ten of the 19 banks under TARP “protection” will be REQUIRED by the U.S. government to raise capital. They include: Bank of America, Citi, PNC, Fifth Third, GMAC, Wells Fargo and others. Notably absent are JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs.
The best part: Under the government’s “worst case” stress test, the 19 banks stand to lose another $600 billion… an amount large enough to require at least a few bankruptcies and or nationalizations.
What’s the “worst case” according to Timothy Geithner? 10.3% unemployment, a GDP contraction of 3.3% for the year and another 22% fall in housing prices.
Heh, that’s it? That’s not far off our best-case scenario. In fact, with a modicum of imagination, it’s not hard to envision much worse.
The Bureau of (be)Labor(ed) Statistics says 539,000 Americans lost their jobs in April. That’s a horrendous number, but still below the 600,000 forecast earlier in the week. And it’s actually the best jobs number since October.
The official unemployment rate still fell in line with Wall Street estimates. At 8.9%, it’s a 25-year high and just a hair below the 1975 peak of 9%.
Since the beginning of 2008, 5.7 million Americans have lost their jobs. A record 6.3 million people are currently filing for unemployment benefits.
Addison Wiggin
Addison Wiggin is the executive publisher of Agora Financial, LLC, a fiercely independent economic forecasting and financial research firm. He’s the creator and editorial director of Agora Financial’s daily 5 Min. Forecast and editorial director of The Daily Reckoning. Wiggin is the founder of Agora Entertainment, executive producer and co-writer of I.O.U.S.A., which was nominated for the Grand Jury Prize at the 2008 Sundance Film Festival, the 2009 Critics Choice Award for Best Documentary Feature, and was also shortlisted for a 2009 Academy Award. He is the author of the companion book of the film I.O.U.S.A.and his second edition of The Demise of the Dollar… and Why it’s Even Better for Your Investments was just fully revised and updated. Wiggin is a three-time New York Times best-selling author whose work has been recognized by The New York Times Magazine, The Economist, Worth, The New York Times, The Washington Post as well as major network news programs. He also co-authored international bestsellers Financial Reckoning Day and Empire of Debt with Bill Bonner.
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Clear that in a real WC-scenario no bank will survive. So this so called stresstest is only implemented to get more control in this crisis.
When the last flood of money from Treasuries worldwide will dry up, the party of our drunken leaders will finally be over, and we will see natural selection worldwide…
The better employment numbers this month are a mirage. The better numbers are the result of temporary hiring for the census. Once the census is over, these people will add to the unemployed instead of subtracting.
u-6 unemployment is 15.8%….that is the umemployment number you want to use when comparing unemployment prior to the middle of the clinton administration.