The Blue-Collar Path

Today’s college graduates are being ejected into the real world and finding a cold, harsh reality.

The job market stinks.

New York Fed data shows that 42% of recent college grads are currently in a job that doesn’t require a degree.

At big tech companies, new graduates now account for just 7% of hires. That’s down more than half since 2019.

Companies across the country are hiring fewer entry-level white-collar workers. Recruiting firm Cadient recently showed that entry level job postings have fallen 73% since 2022 (the same year ChatGPT was released – coincidence?).

If companies aren’t hiring entry-level people, how are young grads supposed to get the experience needed to get more senior jobs?

It’s brutal out there. And stocks are at all-time highs! Imagine what would happen if we got a crash and recession.

The bottom rung of the white-collar career ladder is already breaking. And it’s going to get even more challenging from here.

Blame AI, Immigration, and Outsourcing

Advanced AI agents are playing a big role in this shift. Work that was previously done by new hires and interns is being handed off to ChatGPT, DeepSeek, and Claude.

As AI agents become capable of handling increasingly complex tasks, this disturbing trend will only accelerate.

Add in the massive influx of immigrant workers on visas like the H-1B, who are taking up an increasingly large share of desk jobs, and it’s an ugly situation. These workers happily accept lower pay and longer hours (I don’t really blame them. The blame lies with our politicians for letting it happen).

The idea that America needs to import tech workers from the 3rd world is so laughable I can’t believe anyone says it with a straight face. Yet politicians on both sides of the aisle do so on a regular basis.

Big tech/AI is the worst offender when it comes to hiring foreign workers over Americans. OpenAI, maker of ChatGPT, was recently fined $3.2 million for discriminating against Americans in favor of foreign workers. According to U.S. law, companies are only supposed to get green cards for workers if they can’t find an American to do the job. But OpenAI wasn’t even trying to place Americans in some jobs. They were allegedly aiming for cheap foreign labor first. This scheme is absolutely rampant in tech.

The job listings are initially hidden, so nobody applies. Then they say “gosh nobody applied for this job we hid, so we have to hire a H-1B…”

The $3.2 million settlement is a start. But if we want this situation to change, the fines need to be a lot bigger. $3.2 million is literally nothing to big tech. Boycotts could also be an interesting tool, one which will certainly come into play eventually.

Then we have old-fashioned outsourcing, where a company fires its domestic team and boots up an operation abroad, often in India. Multiple friends of mine have been laid off due to outsourcing in recent years.

Put it all together, and it’s a rough situation for white-collar workers. Especially young ones.

The Blue-Collar Option

For a long time in this country, it felt like the only route to success was getting a college degree and finding a nice desk job. It was never really true, of course. But it sure felt that way when I was a kid.

But with the rise of AI, mass immigration, and outsourcing, this idea is breaking down.

Fortunately there is another path young people can take. The trades. And it’s going to become a lot more popular going forward.

My 17-year old son is a good example. He recently started working as an electrical apprentice. He’s already making $24 an hour. Not bad.

His senior year of high school will be spent learning the trade, while getting paid for it. It’s part of an apprenticeship program run by an organization called Independent Electrical Contractors (IEC). He’ll still graduate with his class, and even get college credits should he ever choose to pursue a degree.

IEC matched him with a local electrical company, which hired him. The company pays for his required classes, gives him a full set of tools, and offers on-the-job training. Not a bad deal.

By 21 years old, he should be making $65,000+ as a licensed journeyman electrician. And by then he should be able to save up $100,000+ living at home.

Apprenticeship programs like this are available all over the country. Many people just aren’t aware of them. For thousands of years, apprenticeships were the standard for professions. They will be again.

Blue-collar careers certainly have their advantages. No college debt, no uncertainty about AI disruption, and plenty of demand.

There are drawbacks, too, of course. It’s a physically strenuous job. But if I were his age, I’d be doing the exact same thing. I couldn’t be prouder of the path he chose.

To be clear, there are some occupations which still require a university degree. Engineering, architecture, medicine, computer science, math, etc. But AI is already eating into these jobs, and there are major disruptions on the horizon.

Let’s face it. The value of most college degrees is plummeting. Especially liberal arts. The snowball’s rolling down the hill, gathering mass and speed.

Blue-collar pay will hold up far better than most “knowledge” jobs over the next few decades. The introduction of AI practically guarantees it, even before factoring in immigration and outsourcing.

Yet despite all the emerging evidence, far too many kids still believe they need to go to college to make a decent living. This simply isn’t the case today. And it definitely won’t be in the future.

More young people should consider a career in the trades. Plumbers, electricians, welders, and other skilled workers make good money and have a lot more job security than most desk workers.

In an era filled with immigration, AI disruption, and outsourcing, the outlook for skilled blue collar work is bright.

So if there are young people in your life who are struggling with direction, encourage them to consider the trades. I’m convinced it’s the best option for many kids (and adults) today.