Vaccines — Too Little, Too Late?
We’re being assured by Pfizer and Moderna that their Covid vaccines are 95% effective and are safe enough to be injected into hundreds of millions of people. Before accepting these extremely consequential claims, let’s look at the actual testing process and results.
In the Pfizer trial, half of the 44,000 volunteers received the vaccine, and the other half got a placebo shot. Then the researchers waited around to see how many of the volunteers randomly came down with Covid. Pfizer reported that out of 170 cases of Covid, 162 were in the placebo group, and eight were in the vaccine group.
So a total of 0.386% of the 44,000 volunteers came down with Covid by means unknown, and this tiny sample is the foundation of grandiose claims of 95% effectiveness?
Note the incredibly small sample size. If even 3% of the test group had contracted Covid, the sample size would be 1,320 people — still a small number but considerably more persuasive than 1/3rd of 1% (170).
These results tell us very little about what we really need to know. Allow me to propose a test protocol that would tell us what we need to know.
Let the Politicians and Big Pharma Be the Guinea Pigs
Take 100 politicians, authorities and Big Pharma executives, give them two doses of the vaccine and then have them serve 4-hour shifts in a crowded ward of severely ill Covid patients for a week, without any masks or protective gear.
In other words, expose them to sustained, intimate contact with patients with severe cases of Covid, spending hours every day in a soup of the virus.
If 100 people took the measles vaccine, would they hesitate to expose themselves to measles patients? No, because the measles vaccine is close to 100% effective.
If the politicians and Big Pharma executives refused to participate in this trial, that would tell us all we really need to know about the effectiveness of their Covid vaccine.
But the trial isn’t finished — not by a long shot.
Phases Two, Three and Four
We need to know if the vaccinated people can still transmit the virus to unvaccinated people. So at the end of their shift, the 100 politicians, authorities and Big Pharma execs clean up and then crowd into a poorly ventilated bar with 100 unvaccinated volunteers, singing, dancing and breathing the same fetid air for two hours every night.
Next, repeat this trial protocol with another 100 people, 50 of whom have chronic conditions such as hypertension, metabolic disorders or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and 50 who are 65 years of age or older.
The only way we’ll really know if the vaccine is effective for at-risk people is to do a rigorous test like this.
Third, repeat the trial protocol with 100 people who have autoimmune disorders or family histories of autoimmune disorders.
There is no other way to discover the potentially harmful consequences of the vaccine on those with a propensity for autoimmune disorders other than a rigorous test of the vaccine, i.e. sustained exposure to the virus over extended periods of time.
Lastly, monitor all the volunteers daily for six months for any side effects of the vaccine. It will take years to really know what side effects may manifest, but six months would at least establish a baseline of safety.
The results of these trials would tell us what we absolutely need to know before we blindly inject tens of millions of people with these vaccines:
1. Will the vaccine offer rock-solid protection against sustained exposure to the virus?
2. Can vaccinated people transmit the virus to unvaccinated people?
3. Will the vaccine protect at-risk people without causing any adverse effects in the most vulnerable groups, including those with autoimmune disorders?
Is 95% Effectiveness Enough?
Let’s also be aware of the limits of any vaccine, even one that’s 95% effective. No vaccine will stop the rapid advance of the virus in the next few months, nor will it stop America’s healthcare system from unraveling.
The demands to treat the soaring caseload of Covid patients are pushing the system toward a breakdown. Current hospitalizations are already 10,000 above previous peaks (70,000 compared to 60,000) and are estimated to reach 100,000 within a few weeks.
A significant percentage of health care personnel (HCP) contract Covid, and 4% of those who are hospitalized have died.
In addition to the very real risks to their own health, many healthcare professionals have parents, children or grandchildren to care for at home, so the risks they face at work impact their families, and that influences their life decisions.
How much risk and stress can one absorb before it’s no longer worth it, or it’s no longer possible to force yourself to endure another exhausting shift?
As shifts become longer, burnout becomes a real threat. Even before covid, burned-out physicians were leaving. The virus won’t stop health care personnel from burning out and becoming too exhausted to go to work.
Nor will it make all the post-Covid symptoms of those who came down with acute Covid go away. These conditions will demand extended care on an unprecedented scale.
Let’s also ponder the potential effects on public trust should the vaccine fail to live up to its advertised effectiveness (95%), or some of those who get the vaccine come down with severe side effects, or suffer the misfortune of dying from unknown causes.
Too Little, Too Late
Trust in institutions, authorities and Big Pharma is scraping the bottom of the barrel, and rushing these vaccines into mass use with extremely high expectations of efficacy is setting up the potential for a devastating loss of trust in the vaccines should they fail to live up to the claims of 100% safety and 95% effectiveness.
95% effectiveness sounds good, but 5% of 300 million Americans is still 15 million people. Toss in the potential for side-effects and there’s still a roulette wheel spinning that every individual will have to consider.
Behaviors will not time-travel back to 2019, even with a 95% effective vaccine.
A great many people will decline the vaccine until they see how the first wave of volunteers fare. Another consequential number will refuse the vaccine for any one of numerous reasons. A third group will put it off because doubts remain: maybe a new vaccine will be even better.
The vaccines are too little, too late: too little is known about their mass effectiveness and eventual side effects, and it’s too late to affect the current advance of the virus, the long-term consequences of those with post-Covid conditions or reverse time to the era before behaviors changed.
I’m sorry, I’m just telling it like it is.
Charles Hugh Smith
for The Daily Reckoning