The Unthinking Intelligentsia

The only good part of being on LinkedIn is seeing the idiotic posts the alleged “intelligentsia” puts up.

There are some people who you’d expect to have a brain, but really don’t, especially when it comes to numbers!

I’ve long said innumeracy is a greater danger than illiteracy. And boy, does it show sometimes. Take this meme, that’s been floating around:

It’s supposed to be some snarky hot-take on overweight folks getting on a plane without penalties for fatness while some 100 lb. airhead gets fined for overweight luggage.

All it’s done is expose the absolute idiocy on “Facebook For Suits.” Let me explain.

Invert, Like Charlie Munger

First of all, I’d ask myself this: “Why would airlines not weigh people all these years?”

You may think that America wasn’t always fat. And you’d be right. However, America has been overweight for nearly 40 years now, which amounts to a significant amount of flight time.

So let’s try this one: passenger weight matters on big planes, but it’s already baked into the system, safety margins, and planning. (Yes, passenger weight distribution matters on small planes, but this wasn’t what the meme was going for. For large planes, forward-aft passenger distribution matters, but the airlines will seat you accordingly.)

Surely not, you protest!

Passenger weight amounts to only about 10% of the total weight of a large international flight at takeoff. Again, for puddlejumpers, it matters much more.

But even if you didn’t know that, how about employing simple statistics?

The Normal Distribution

Folks, this is Day 3 of Stats 101. On Day 1, you do measures of central tendency (mean, median, and mode). On Day 2, you will measure dispersion (variance and standard deviation). On Day 3, you get introduced to the bell curve, or, in more technical terms, the normal distribution.

You may remember Nassim Taleb bitching about financiers using the normal distribution to assess risk because nothing in finance has a normal return. That’s correct.

However, things that are normally distributed include shoe size, height, and, yes, weight. To be fair, there’s a slight positive skew with weight, as obesity is indeed a problem. But not that much of a problem when you’re flying.

Aerospace engineers know what a plane will weigh at takeoff (the aircraft itself, passengers, and jet fuel – the significant variable) to within a tolerable margin, or the plane wouldn’t get permission to take off.

That’s why no one wants to sit next to the proverbial “fat guy.” It feels like one or two huge passengers stand out on a flight — but given that two-thirds of Americans are overweight, the averages are already baked into the numbers.

A far bigger problem is that airlines are squeezing an extra seat across to make up for the low prices they’re forced to charge. My shoulder intruding on the passenger next to me is a far bigger problem than my bottom. And when I lean into the aisle to give my seatmate more room, the stewardess inevitably slams the trolley into my other shoulder.

Why Luggage is Weighed

No, the real problem is threefold.

That 60 kg woman with the 30 kg carry-on bag is a nightmare because if there are too many of those bags in the overhead bins, it stresses the plane’s interior. (Not to mention she probably can’t lift the damn thing over her head to put it in the bin in the first place, and holds up seating.)

The second problem is that her 60 kg check-in bag throws out the backs of the guys moving the luggage from the conveyor belt to the plane at takeoff and vice versa at landing. This results in sick days, workers’ compensation, and reduced productivity.

The third problem is that there’s only so much room in the cargo hold for all the crap people try to ship on passenger flights because they don’t want to pay for proper shipping costs.

Weigh People? Good Luck With That…

But let’s say you still think it’s unfair and airlines should charge by “total weight,” which includes you and your bags.

Now imagine trying to weight a… ahem… “body positive” woman before she gets on board.

Besides the raised eyebrows, stifled laughs, and sweaty brows of the people weighing the fattie, the poor thing will have probably starved herself – sorry, intermittently fasted – for a week before she has to fly.

Then, she’ll claim the scale is broken and the airline is trying to rip her off.

Oh, the lawsuits will be delicious!

Wrongful weighing, stressful dieting, missed meetings because of lack of nutrition. It’s an absolute nightmare for the airlines.

And what are you going to do about this guy? Someone with a brain made this countermeme:

Besides those obvious examples, do you really want yet another step added before you get on a plane?

You already have to check in, get all your stuff through the x-ray machine, and, if you get lucky, the TSA officer will, as Andrew Dice Clay once colorfully said, “juggle your coolyons like he’s looking for ripe tomatoes.”

How much earlier before your flight will you need to arrive? Three or four hours?

Wrap Up

Folks, lay off the fat people. They matter, but not nearly as much as you think. The plane will still take off and land safely.

But do learn how to pack. You don’t need to take your life with you when you travel. In fact, bring an empty bag on your way, so you can do some retail therapy at your preferred destination.

Just don’t go overweight, and you’ll get your shipping for free.