The Second Leg of the Housing Crisis

According to one of the world’s biggest banks, 48% of U.S. mortgages will be underwater by 2011. Man… and the critics call us “doom and gloom”?

But that’s the word from Deutsche Bank this week, which claims the number of U.S. mortgages worth more than the actual value of homes is going to double in the next couple of years. In line with our forecast yesterday, the bank is especially worried for prime and jumbo borrowers. 41% of prime borrowers will be underwater by 2011, says the DB forecast, up from 16% at the start of this year. Jumbos will be even worse, with a 46% underwater rate.

“The impact of this is significant given that these markets have the largest share of the total mortgage market outstanding,” said the bank’s report.

How significant? They’re expecting home prices to fall another 14% by 2011, for a total crash of 41%.

(By the way, we think this second wave of the housing tsunami is going to wash out one big bank that most people think is safe and sound. We’re brewing up a special report on the matter… stay tuned.)

The Daily Reckoning