Stumbling Superpower Syndrome

India and China are each home to over 1.4 billion people.

Together, the two countries host a whopping 35% of the world’s population.

The United States and its allies have worked hard to support India as a counterweight to China. American leaders have gone out of their way to embrace India, despite its strong military and economic relationship with Russia.

Why? Because India is a key partner in America’s plans to contain China.

For example, from 1957 to 1972, the CIA covertly supported Tibetan rebels in an area claimed by both countries. These guerilla forces were largely trained in India and Nepal.

And in 1962, the U.S. provided weapons and support to India in the brief Sino-Indian war.

China and India have been at each others’ throats for decades. They constantly skirmish over disputed border territories, including vital areas like South Tibet.

But this is beginning to change…

Did Trump Push Too Far?

Since Russia invaded Ukraine, India has emerged as a top buyer of Russian crude oil. They buy it at a discount, refine it, and sell much of it (ironically) to Europe.

In his effort to end the war in Ukraine, President Trump recently levied 50% tariffs on India. Trump accused the country of “fueling the war machine” of Russia with its purchases of oil and weapon systems.

India sees this as hypocritical, since America still relies on Russian uranium and fertilizer. Here’s the official statement released by India’s Ministry of External Affairs:

Disappointingly, when Trump was asked in a press conference about American purchases of Russian uranium, he replied that he knew nothing about it. To this day, America gets around 23% of its refined uranium from Russia. They also supply us with key fertilizers, without which our agricultural system would flounder. These are two of the assets exempted from America’s tough sanction regime.

So India is outraged over this new 50% tariff. And it risks driving them closer to China, their long-term opponent. This would be a major setback for America’s foreign policy priorities.

The Backfire

In the wake of these new tariffs, Indian President Modi just announced that he will visit China for the first time in 7 years. This is not a good sign.

Indian billionaire banker Uday Kotak recently suggested in a TV interview that India should boost its economic relationship with China as a response to the U.S.

Relations between India and China appear to be thawing. This could throw a wrench in American efforts to contain China’s economic and political rise.

Additionally, Brazil and other BRICS countries are now coordinating to respond to Trump’s aggressive tariffs in an organized fashion.

Relations between China and Japan are also growing warmer in the wake of Trump’s aggressive and erratic trade policies.

It’s hard to overstate the risks we face here.

Trump’s Understandable Urgency

To be clear, I understand what Trump aims to accomplish. He wants to revitalize American industry, while maintaining our position as the world’s primary superpower.

He’s 79 years old, this is his second term, and nobody knows what the political environment will look like after midterms and the next presidential election. God forbid, in 3.5 years we could have President Gavin Newsom in the White House.

Trump has to move quickly to rearrange the global trade order. But I fear he’s being too aggressive.

He is attempting to isolate and intimidate all our adversaries simultaneously. The problem is, that’s now half the world. And growing.

Could America End Up Isolated?

In the long-run, we risk inadvertently isolating ourselves. It seems hard to fathom, but the unthinkable is more possible by the day.

Nations are slowly shifting their reserves away from the dollar, and into gold. China has become the primary trading partner for the majority of countries.

America is no longer the world’s lone superpower. Like it or not, we are entering a new multipolar world.

Too many U.S. politicians are stuck in the second half of the 20th century, when U.S. power was unrivaled. The Lindsey Grahams of the world have watched Top Gun one too many times. Things are different today.

I am still hopeful Trump will pull off his plan to revitalize American industrial power. But I’m also increasingly concerned about the risk of America becoming isolated. Perhaps my pessimism is unwarranted. Time will tell.