Shell calls Peak Oil by 2015... sort of
World demand for oil and gas will outstrip supply within seven years,
according to Royal Dutch Shell.
The oil multinational is predicting that conventional supplies will not keep
pace with soaring population growth and the rapid pace of economic
Jeroen van der Veer, Shell’s chief executive, said in an e-mail to the
company’s staff this week that output of conventional oil and gas was close
to peaking. He wrote: “Shell estimates that after 2015 supplies of
easy-to-access oil and gas will no longer keep up with demand.”
So van der Veer actually one-ups Mulva by attaching a date to the forecast. He also spells out two scenarios for how everything will play out:
The first scenario, “Scramble”, envisages a mad dash by nations to secure
resources. With policymakers viewing energy as “a zero-sum game,” use of
domestic coal and biofuels accelerates.
It is a world, said the Shell chief, where “policymakers pay little attention
to energy consumption – until supplies run short.”
The alternative scenario, “Blue-prints”, envisages a world of political
cooperation between governments on efficiency standards and taxes, a
convergence of policies on emissions trading and local initiatives to
improve environmental performance of buildings.
My question: What's to say the two scenarios are mutually exclusive?