Rosenberg: This Recession is Really a Depression
Lest there be any confusion about 2010, Gluskin Sheff & Associates’ David Rosenberg has released his bearish outlook. His conclusion? A reminder, that as he has “said repeatedly … this recession is really a depression.”
First, Rosenberg explains that we remain in a “prolonged period of credit contraction”:
“The credit collapse and the accompanying deflation and overcapacity are going to drive the economy and financial markets in 2010. We have said repeatedly that this recession is really a depression because the recessions of the post-WWII experience were merely small backward steps in an inventory cycle but in the context of expanding credit. Whereas now, we are in a prolonged period of credit contraction, especially as it relates to households and small businesses…”
He goes on to describe a “fascinating and disturbing” trend that relates unemployment to the baby boomer generation:
“So, what is happening, which is at the same time fascinating and disturbing, is that the only part of the population actually seeing any job growth in this recession are people over the age of 55. Everyone else can’t get a job or are losing jobs — there is a youth unemployment crisis in the United States of epic proportions…”
Read the rest of his insightful outlook at Zero Hedge in its post of Today’s Breakfast from Gluskin Sheff.