Jerome Powell Caves
Jerome Powell chummed the seawater this morning. And the voracious sharks rose to the bait…
In written testimony to Congress, Mr. Powell informed us that:
Crosscurrents have reemerged. Many FOMC participants saw that the case for a somewhat more accommodative monetary policy had strengthened. Since [the Fed meeting in June], based on incoming data and other developments, it appears that uncertainties around trade tensions and concerns about the strength of the global economy continue to weigh on the U.S. economic outlook… Growth indicators from around the world have disappointed on net, raising concerns that weakness in the global economy will continue to affect the U.S. economy.
What is more… he re-babbled his oath that the Federal Reserve would “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.”
Translated into good hard English: Expect a rate cut later this month.
Affirms Bloomberg Federal Reserve-ologist Steve Matthews:
“Powell didn’t say so explicitly, but it’s hard to read this other than he thinks a cut in July would be appropriate.”
Powell’s dispatch, adds Peter Boockvar of Bleakley Advisory Group…
“…fully endorsed the July rate cut and did absolutely nothing to pull the markets back from that expectation.”
The stock market was up and away on the news…
The S&P Tops 3,000 For The First Time In History
For the first occasion in its 62 years… the S&P poked its head above the 3,000 mark this morning.
The Nasdaq registered a fresh record of its own. And the Dow Jones bounded nearly 200 points.
But the opening frenzy squandered much of the day’s energy… and the averages gradually lost their steam.
The Dow Jones ended the day up 75 points, at 26,859.
After catching its first glimpse of 3,000, the S&P dipped back down to 2,992. The Nasdaq, meantime, closed the day with a 61- point gain.
And so it goes…
100% Chance Of A July Rate Cut
Federal funds futures — incidentally — now give 100% odds of a rate cut later this month.
But what about the rest of the year… and next year? To what inky depths will the Federal Reserve lower rates?
Perhaps even lower than markets expect — if you take history as your teacher.
Markets presently expect Mr. Powell and his goons to cut rates 75 basis points by January.
Seventy-five basis points imply three rate cuts (a typical rate cut — or hike — is 25 basis points).
Three rate cuts by year’s end are plenty heady.
But according to Michael Lebowitz of Real Investment Advice, history argues even stronger drink is in prospect…
Markets Underestimate How Far Rates Could Sink
If the Federal Reserve undertakes a hike cycle, he maintains, it often elevates rates higher than markets project.
And when the Federal Reserve begins cutting rates… it hatchets them even lower than markets expect.
Looking at the 2004–06 rate hike cycle… the market consistently underestimated the pace of fed funds rate increases…
During the 2007–09 rate cut cycle, the market consistently thought fed funds rates would be higher than what truly prevailed…
The market has underestimatedthe Fed’s intent to raise and lower rates every single time they changed the course of monetary policy meaningfully.
Lebowitz says markets have underestimated rate cut intensity for the previous three cycles.
And Mr. Powell currently has his hatchet out.
If the Fed initiates rate cuts and if the data… prove prescient, then current estimates for a fed funds rate of 1.50 –1.75% in the spring of 2020 may be well above what we ultimately see.
And here Lebowitz seizes us by the shoulders… and gives us a good hard shaking:
Taking it a step further, it is not far-fetched to think that that fed funds rate could be back at the zero-bound or even negative at some point sooner than anyone can fathom today.
Who could? Fathom it, that is.
Just last year the monetary authorities gloated about “globally synchronized growth” and their march back to “normalcy.”
Now they are preparing to about-face… and go scurrying back to zero?
Who can take these gentlemen and ladies seriously?
The Fed Can Never Normalize Interest Rates
Here is our guess: Once they turn around, they will never come back.
The Federal Reserve cannot return to normal.
Returning to normal would knock the economy flat. And the stock market would come down in a thundering heap.
Only low interest rates keep it all vertical.
But as we have noted repeatedly… watch out for the next rate cut.
The past three recessions each commenced within three months of the first rate cut that ended a hiking cycle.
We find no reason to believe “this time will be different.”
The next rate cut — likely this month — starts the clock ticking.
We could be wrong of course.
The inscrutable gods keep their own schedule. Who knows how long the show might run?
Out of Ammunition
But come the inevitable recession…
The Federal Reserve will have very little ammunition to hurl against it.
And the closer it gets to zero, the less ammunition it will hold.
History says it requires interest rates of at least 4% to wage a successful battle.
Rates are presently between 2.25% and 2.50%.
They are about to sink lower. Perhaps drastically lower.
That is, the Federal Reserve is badly outgunned as it presently stands.
If the economy somehow pegs along until rates are zero — or near zero — the Federal Reserve would be on its knees… defenseless.
It will have another desperate go at quantitative easing. But multiple rounds did little (nothing) to raise the economy last time.
Why would it work next time?
The Next Crackpot Cure
That is why we expect the next anti-recession cure — disaster, that is — will not be monetary.
It will be fiscal.
The cries will go out…
“QE for Wall Street did nothing for the economy. The time for QE for Main Street has come.”
The authorities will take to their helicopters, hover over Main… and begin shoveling money out the side.
The throngs below will haul it all in. They will proceed to go spreeing through the stores. The resulting delirium will give the economy a wild jolt.
That is the theory… as far as it runs.
It in part explains the loudening shouts for Modern Monetary Theory (MMT).
Its drummers claim it can invigorate the wilting American economy.
They further claim it can fund ambitious social programs — all without raids upon the taxpayer.
And if interest rates are shackled down, without blasting the deficit.
The printing press will supply the money.
But as we have argued prior, MMT is the eternal quest for the free lunch… water into wine… something for nothing.
And that world has no existence.
MMT would likely yield a gorgeous inflation. But the economic growth it promises… would be a promise broken.
It will join the broken promise of monetary policy…
Managing editor, The Daily Reckoning