If it quacks like a recession...
46% of Americans agree: Never mind what the economists say, we're in a recession:
Nearly half of Americans feel the U.S. economy is in a recession, marked by a significant decline in economic activity, according to a survey released Thursday.
The poll by the CNN-Opinion Research Corporation found that while 46 percent of Americans hold that belief, 51 percent don't.
Black citizens were more pessimistic than whites, findings show.
Sixty-nine percent of black Americans feel the United States is in a recession, while only 42 percent of white Americans feel the same way.
CNN's article then helpfully reminds us what the pointy-heads consider to be a recession:
The National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP [Gross Domestic Product], real income, employment, industrial production and wholesale-retail sales"…
According to the bureau, "a recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity, and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades."
The people who think we're in a recession might be in the minority… but their perceptions are more accurate. As The Survival Report's Mish Shedlock wrote back around Memorial Day:
If one believes as I do, that the first 2% of GDP is hedonics, imputations and other fictional activity (e.g. the estimated value of things like free checking accounts – yes I am serious – added into the GDP numbers), then we are already in a recession starting now.
Mish's recession warning lights continue to flash nearly five months later. For his latest insights, and the best ways to protect your hard-earned assets in the present environment, check out his latest report.