Government Regulation of Short Sellers

“Give me control of a nation’s money and I care not who makes her laws.”

— Mayer Amschel Rothschild

Let’s observe a moment of silence to mourn the slow demise of capitalism in the U.S.

Our government is now overtly manipulating the stock market. We have “crossed the Rubicon.” We can no longer pretend to be a free market capitalist country while also maintaining confidence in the U.S. dollar as reserve currency. After this panic subsides, the investing environment will be very different.

Make no mistake about it: The last two weeks will go down as one of the most pivotal periods in financial history. The financial landscape has changed so dramatically that few have had a chance to catch their breath. I’ve spent the entire last week reading and thinking through the free market’s ultimate response to this unprecedented, rapidly changing situation.

Last week, the SEC announced a temporary ban on new short sales in 799 specific financial stocks. Short selling is one of the most important weapons in an investor’s cache. It allows the market to react to foul play and sloppy corporate leadership. This is an even more important tool to use against poorly run small caps. That’s why this ban is so significant.

Before I go on, let’s first clear something up: This new ban doesn’t mean that existing short positions must be covered. But many are clearly closing short positions to limit risk anyway. The SEC might well have sparked a panic liquidation in other areas of the market, as hedge fund managers liquidate long positions to offset losses on short positions. As I write, the market is well off its highs just one hour into Friday’s trading day. Odds are good that the SEC will realize that its decision only sucked a huge amount of liquidity out of the stock market and reverse its decision to something more sensible, like reinstating the uptick rule.

While on the subject of the SEC’s new short selling rule, allow me to state the obvious: Short sellers did not bring down the investment banks. Once the investment bank executives made the decision to operate their balance sheets like Long-Term Capital Management on steroids, the writing was on the wall. They relied far too much on “quant” models, rather than good old-fashioned common sense.

Rather than target the individuals who had been warning about this situation for years, why doesn’t the SEC investigate the proprietary trades of the banks’ trading desks? I’d expect it would find evidence that the investment banks were short selling each other’s stocks at the same time that they were cutting each other’s lines of credit. In the autopsy of Lehman Brothers’ balance sheet, we have discovered that Lehman management wildly overvalued its toxic assets. Why wasn’t this taken as evidence that the lack of transparency at investment banks is at the root of last week’s crisis?

The SEC’s decision to ban short sales of financial stocks is throwing sand into the markets’ gears. Like most government action, it pays lip service to consequences. Convertible bond traders use short selling to hedge equity risk. After this ban, the price of convertible bonds will probably fall.

Hedge fund managers use short sales to offset the risk in holding long positions. After this ban, fund managers will have to use other means to cut risk, which include selling off huge chunks of their long positions.

Finally, at market bottoms, short sellers provide demand for stocks when they buy to close out short positions. Without this buying pressure, the market could possibly go “no bid” at crucial periods when long investors want to get out at any price.

The SEC would really benefit the market if it cleaned up the system of trade clearing. “Naked short selling” occurs when brokers take orders for short sales and don’t locate the shares to borrow. If a broker cannot locate them, then it shouldn’t tell the short seller that it is able to execute the order. Since the broker doesn’t want to lose the short seller’s business, it probably executes short sales of “hard to borrow” stocks anyway and hopes it can locate the shares in time for settlement.

“Quant funds” — the ones that use computers to trade millions of shares every minute — are lucrative brokerage clients. These funds are most likely to be the ones unknowingly requesting “naked” short sales. The orders come in so fast that it’s hard for the broker to say no, we cannot locate those shares to borrow.

In my view, the SEC can solve the problem of naked short selling with better enforcement of existing rules. Brokers should not be allowed to execute orders to short shares that they have little chance of borrowing. It’s vital that we restore liquidity to our stock market, rather than implement poorly thought-out decisions made overnight.

Best regards,
Dan Amoss, CFA
September 23, 2008

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