Betting Against the Fed: A Guaranteed Investment Strategy

We were quoted in The Wall Street Journal last week. “Gold is a bet against the Fed,” we said.

Gold is now firmly over $1,400 an ounce. The correction seems to be over.

Frankly, we were disappointed. We were hoping for a deep correction that would shake out the speculators and discourage the Johnny-come-lately investors.

Didn’t happen. Instead, the price barely went down at all. Less than 10% (from vague memory). Hardly a correction.

We wanted lower prices so we could buy more. Because, if there were ever a sure-fire, under-priced wager here’s one: betting that the Fed will err.

You can understand the power of that bet just by taking the other side for a moment. Who, in his right mind, would bet that the Fed won’t err? Thanks largely to the Fed and other central banks, the crisis that began 4 years ago with the bankruptcy of subprime lender Countrywide Financial was never resolved. Instead, the problems were largely increased. The private sector still has far too much debt. Now, the public sector is headed for bankruptcy too. It is only a matter of time before new crises arise and intensify.

Ben Bernanke has never given the slightest indication, hint or wink to suggest that he has any idea of what is really going on or that he understands how an economy really works. At every point over the last 5 years, his analysis has been incorrect. His predictions have been wrong. And his policies have made things worse.

You want to bet on Ben Bernanke? Yes, thanks…we’ll take that bet. We’ll take your money!

Was there ever a problem so intractable…or a situation so awful…that government planning couldn’t make worse? Here’s the latest. With food prices soaring, the feds move into the market.

They need to go back and read the Old Testament. An ancient Mubarak in the land of the pyramids was faced with famine. But he had the good sense to save up grain when it was cheap…and release it to the people when it was dear. These morons are doing the opposite. A pox on their houses! May their beer be always flat!

Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) – Governments worldwide will increase their role in global food markets and may boost stockpiles and subsidies or impose trade curbs to head off the protests that have rippled through the Middle East, commodity traders said.

“Greater political intervention in food matters is only to be expected,” Alan Winney, chairman of Emerald Group Australia Pty Ltd., said in an interview at a sugar-industry conference in Dubai. “Governments will be careful to take preemptive measures to prevent increases in food prices,” said Winney.

The higher costs of wheat, sugar and dairy products sent the United Nations’ World Food Price Index to an all-time high last month. The jump has contributed to democratic revolts in Tunisia and Egypt, as well as other Arab nations. Saif al-Islam Qaddafi said in a televised address Libya is “not Tunisia and Egypt” after thousands demonstrated in the city of Benghazi.


Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning

The Daily Reckoning