Craig Wilson

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5 Things To Watch For

Here are the 5 things to watch for in news stories that will be impacting the global market this week.

1. Goldman Cuts S&P500 Earnings Forecasts For The Next Three Years (ZeroHedge)

Goldman’s U.S. based equity department said in a note released last Thursday that it would be lowering its S&P 500 earnings for the next three years. “Our economists forecast that real GDP growth in the US will persist at a roughly 2% annual pace through 2019,” said chief Goldman economist, Jan Hatzius while pointing out stagnation issues. “Increased infrastructure spending represents a source of potential upside to our estimate. However, the benefit from increased government spending is unlikely to kick in until 2018, when new budget deals would go into effect.”  This points to a new dependency on political forces to move the economy going forward. It also highlights a trend of minimal economic growth in the future.

For the full story click here.

2. How China’s Dealmakers Pulled Off a $207 Billion Global Spree (Bloomberg)

China hit a record $207 billion in spending overseas while on a “buying spree.”  Amidst concerns about the Chinese government’s influence on corporate decisions, the Bloomberg piece cites the global co-head of M&A, Hernan Cristerna, noting that it “can make sellers nervous,” while also pushing back in saying that it is “too early to tell whether Chinese acquirers will follow through on the promises they made to secure recent takeovers.” The growing influence of China is can be seen in the array of various sectors they are involved in and how they span throughout the globe.  One thing seems certain, Chinese investment appears to still be on the rise.

To read the full story click here.

3. Obama’s Pivot to Asia Hits a Roadblock in the Philippines (Ron Paul)

Philippine president Duterte, while on a state visit in Beijing, announced his country’s official “separation” from the United States. The Obama Administration’s “Asia pivot” has clearly hit considerable obstacles on nearly all fronts. As Dr. Ron Paul noted today “President Obama’s ‘pivot to Asia’ has turned out not to mean improved trade and diplomatic ties with the region, but an aggressive stance toward China over, among other issues, the South China Sea.”  Asia is crucial to an incoming White House administration, and having strong relations with traditional allies will be paramount. Dr. Paul suggests that, “A US pivot away from confrontation with China would go a long way toward repairing strained relations with the Philippines and beyond.”  While the story continues to unfold, Dr. Paul highlights the core issues going forward.

To read the full story click here.

Even economist Jim Rickards got in on the news relaying in a tweet:

4. Leading Banks Set to Pull Out of UK Early Next Year (Guardian)

Anthony Browne, the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, wrote a warning note over the weekend in one the UK’s most read papers that “the major players [bankers] are already planning to relocate from Britain.”  This would lead to what many have discussed as a “hard” landing – in which the UK is pushed at a faster pace to leave the EU.  With the prospects of major financial institutions leaving London, the center hub for banking, questions arise.  The moves of smaller banks, followed by much more complex institutions is worth monitoring. Expect the story of European markets, banking and investments to all stem through the BREXIT narrative.

To read the full story click here.

5. Oil Prices Fall as Iraq Resists Joining Output Cut (Reuters)

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is scheduled to hold a head of state assembly in November with much attention toward slowing output of oil globally.  Saudi Arabia and Iran have halted general agreements proposed by the cartel for years but recently signaled they may be able to reach an agreement.  Now another speed bump has hit the organization.  Iraq’s oil minister signaled that the country would seek an exemption to any production deal.  Oil prices immediately dropped on the dissent.  While the November meeting is still weeks away and much could change, the story holds meaning – especially in terms of production and overall consumption in the oil market.

To read the full story click here.

And finally, for some mild humor we take to the Twittersphere for a feline take on all things internet…

Regards,

Craig Wilson, @craig_wilson7
for The Daily Reckoning

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