“We’re In a Type of Civil War.”

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds, isn’t known for hyperbole. When he speaks, it’s with the weight of decades of market observation, historical analysis, and deep economic thinking. So when he tells Tucker Carlson that the United States is in a kind of civil war, people should listen.

This isn’t a war of muskets and bayonets but of irreconcilable divisions — over wealth, values, governance, and law. And, as Dalio warns, history shows that such conflicts rarely end in compromise. More often, they resolve through force — whether of law, economics, or physical confrontation.

The Fractured United States

Increasing polarization in America has led to a shocking ideological gap in Congress. It’s the widest since 1900, and party-line voting has reached historic extremes. Deep divisions in wealth and values have made America “bipolar.”

Why are we here? Dalio sees two key drivers: globalization and technology. The middle class that once thrived on manufacturing jobs has been gutted. Automation and foreign competition have eroded opportunities, leaving many Americans with stagnant wages, low productivity, and an inability to compete in a high-tech world. Meanwhile, a tiny elite — about three million people — is leading a tech revolution that has concentrated wealth and power like never before.

Dalio argues this inequality is both economic and cultural. As wealth concentrates in elite institutions and cities, so do values. The gap between traditionalist and progressive ideologies widens, fueled by resentment, media amplification, and an increasingly dysfunctional government. The result? In an America where different factions no longer want to talk to each other, let alone compromise.

The End of Political Cooperation

Dalio recalls an era when political leaders — think Ronald Reagan and Tip O’Neill — could negotiate and find common ground. That world is gone. Today’s politics is a zero-sum game where power is everything, and each side fights to impose its vision by any means necessary.

This fight plays out in areas like immigration (sanctuary cities defying federal law), judicial battles (the Supreme Court becoming hyper-partisan), and economic policy (fiscal deadlock as deficits spiral out of control). As Dalio warns, when people stop respecting laws and institutions, enforcement ultimately falls to those willing to use force — whether police, private security, or armed citizens.

That’s how civil wars happen.

The AI Revolution: Transformation or Chaos?

As if these divisions weren’t enough, Dalio sees artificial intelligence as the most transformative force in human history—bigger than the printing press or the Industrial Revolution. AI will make industries more efficient, revolutionize medicine, reshape warfare, and change how governments function. As Carlson notes, it will also eliminate millions of jobs, further concentrating power in the hands of those who control the technology.

Dalio sees no game plan for managing this transition. Governments are reactive, not proactive, and corporations are driven by competitive self-interest. There’s no global AI policy, just a frantic arms race between U.S. and Chinese firms, each determined to out-innovate the other. As Dalio bluntly states, intellectual property protection is nearly impossible in this environment. The moment one country or company develops a breakthrough, it spreads.

Carlson asks whether this AI race will lead to a dominant world power. Dalio says no — because while the U.S. may excel in AI research, China dominates manufacturing and robotics. America might design the next-generation chip, but China will build and embed it into the global economy at scale. This interdependence means there won’t be a clear technological winner — only an ongoing struggle for control.

The Future of Economics: Control vs. Chaos

Beyond AI, Dalio sees a broader crisis in economic governance. With U.S. debt spiraling beyond sustainable levels, policymakers need a clear strategy. But, as Dalio points out, strategy requires cooperation — something America lacks. Instead, economic policy is increasingly reactive, driven by short-term political survival rather than long-term planning.

AI could help policymakers make better decisions. Imagine an AI-driven Federal Reserve micro-targeting inflation responses or fiscal policies that efficiently distribute resources. AI-enhanced economic controls could monitor transactions at a molecular level, ensuring compliance… but eliminating financial privacy.

Would that be better than the alternative? Perhaps. Dalio worries that America’s real choice may not be between freedom and control but between control and chaos. Either the U.S. finds a way to manage its economic and political fragmentation, or it devolves into an unpredictable, unstable environment where laws, money, and even state authority break down.

The Human Factor: Can We Avoid Collapse?

For all the focus on economics and technology, Dalio insists that the most important issue is how people treat each other. He argues that community is the greatest determinant of national success. Countries with strong social cohesion — where people trust institutions and each other — fare better in times of crisis. The U.S., by contrast, is becoming a country of isolated, distrustful factions.

Dalio’s research shows that power and wealth do not correlate with happiness beyond a certain level. America is the world’s most powerful nation, yet its citizens have shorter life expectancies than Canadians and lower happiness levels than Indonesians. The key factor? Social harmony.

Religious traditions have long emphasized the need for moral and social rules to maintain balance — whether in the form of the Ten Commandments, karma, or community values. The modern world, however, is rapidly discarding these frameworks, replacing them with individualism and identity politics. The result is a society increasingly incapable of cooperation and compromise.

The Next Five Years: A Radical Transformation

Dalio predicts that the next five years will feel like a time warp — a period of rapid, disorienting change driven by AI, geopolitical shifts, and economic pressures. The world of 2030 will be almost unrecognizable from today, shaped by forces that are only beginning to emerge.

Adaptability is the key to surviving this upheaval. Dalio doesn’t pretend to have all the answers. He acknowledges he has only been correct about 65% of the time in his career. What matters isn’t certainty but how you manage uncertainty.

His advice? Diversify your bets. Prepare for volatility. Recognize that political and economic stability is not guaranteed. And, above all, pay attention to how society holds together — or falls apart.

Because in the end, no amount of wealth or technology can protect a nation that has forgotten how to live together.

If Dalio is correct, we’re in for a turbulent ride. The question is whether we emerge stronger… or let history repeat itself.

Have a great weekend!