Sittin’ on the dock of the bay…Watchin’ the tide roll away…
– “(Sittin’ On) The Dock of the Bay”, Otis Reading
We’re glad we’re not sitting on the dock of the bay in Biloxi or St. Petersburg. There’s oil coming that way…and it’s not the kind you can burn in your lamp.
The newspapers say there are huge globs of oil beneath the surface…or floating on the top. You’d think you could just pump it up. At $70 a barrel, you’d think you could make money scooping up the “sea oil” in the gulf. Probably better than shrimping.
Instead, everyone is complaining about it…and threatening to put BP executives in jail. Yesterday’s cover story in The Financial Times told us that the head man at BP has admitted error.
“BP ‘not prepared’ for spill”
We hope he had a good talk with his lawyers. “Not prepared” sounds like an admission of negligence. Maybe criminal negligence.
There are billions in lawsuits coming up…and the attorneys around the Gulf are slicker than an oil spill. The English don’t realize what they’re up against…an Alabama lawyer in a seersucker suit…talking to an Alabama jury…about how a British billion-dollar company destroyed their lives and livelihood.
They’re going to use every word Tony Hayward says against him.
Nobody is going to thank him for keeping his auto running. No one is going to think about where the oil comes from that he uses to heat his house…or how he draws electricity from an oil-fired power plant. No one in the entire state of Alabama is going to stand up for BP…certainly not an elected official.
“You have no idea how this works,” said a Washington friend. “The shyster lawyers are all in tight with the lawmakers. Many of them are shysters too. That’s why Obamacare is so tilted towards the lawyers and the pharmaceutical companies. They’re all in cahoots.
“And now this oil spill is going to set off a feeding frenzy on BP. The shyster lawyers are drawing up their class action strategies now. And you’ll see public interest groups get into the action. These guys are smart. And they’re very well funded. They’re going to short BP shares…and then announce a $20 billion lawsuit. And every pseudo environmental group…and trade organization…and labor union…and city council…and cracker-jack collection of meddlers anywhere within 100 miles of the coast…they’re all going to be looking at that pay day…when BP settles for…what?…$100 million…$1 billion…who knows. But they can invest millions in the case, because they know the payoff will be huge. They’re just fighting for position now…seeing who can put together the winning jackpot case… It’s sickening.”
Legal advice to BP: deny everything. You weren’t there. Deepwater what? Then, tell litigants that you will never settle any case, no matter how big or how rich. That will vastly increase the investment capital the shysters need to raise.
BP’s share price has plummeted. Some people think it is time to buy. Might be a little too soon. Our guess is that estimates of the damage are going to balloon even higher as more and more lawyers begin to see that thanks to BP they can win the lottery without buying a ticket.
Also, we suspect that a downturn is coming in the entire energy sector. Why? Because energy use grows with GDP growth. And we suspect we’re in Deep Doo-Doo there too.
Savings rates are rising all over the world – in developed economies and in emerging economies. That means GDP growth should turn down.
From Yahoo Finance:
Americans pulled back on their spending in May after a tepid April, underscoring how fragile the consumer spending recovery remains, new data released Thursday show.
Cool weather and a quirk in the calendar – a late Memorial Day weekend that hurt May’s business but should boost June’s figures – dampened spending on almost everything from clothing to major appliances. The figures, from MasterCard Advisors’ SpendingPulse, include spending in all forms including cash from May 2 through Saturday.
But weakness in the past six weeks is due to more than thermostat and calendar flukes, analysts said. They cited unemployment, stock market jitters and the end of government funded rebates on energy-efficient appliances.
“I don’t think you can explain away all the weakness just based on the calendar shift,” said Michael McNamara, vice president of research and analysis for SpendingPulse.
People are reluctant to spend for all the usual reasons…and some new ones. In the past, people have feared losing jobs. Never before in recent history have they feared that the government would go broke.
Just ask young people what they expect to get from Social Security or the new Medicare program. They know the score. The old folks stacked the deck against them. All the aces come up first – while the boomers are still in the game. Then, nothing but low cards.
“‘Sittin’ on the dock of the bay’ was a protest song,” a communist friend once explained. “It’s about blacks who came to look for work in San Francisco and then couldn’t find a job.”
Another report tells us that the corporate bond market is practically dead. Corporations can’t raise money for expansion…and don’t seem to want to. They’re being shut out of the credit market by government – particularly the US government. Bond rates are so low buyers don’t have much to look forward to – whether they buy the corporates or the Treasuries. They figure they might as well go for Treasuries. At least they’ll be sure to get paid back.
This year, the US government is expected to borrow an additional $3 trillion. That doesn’t leave much money for the private sector. Which is why The Wall Street Journal report is surely correct; more and more people are going to be sitting on the dock of the bay…or watching TV. Unemployment is still increasing in most cities.
China Daily seemed to capture the underlying trend better than anyone. It’s headline:
“West moving towards deeper financial abyss.”
Into the Deep Doo Doo, in other words.
Bill Bonnerfor The Daily Reckoning
Since founding Agora Inc. in 1979, Bill Bonner has found success in numerous industries. His unique writing style, philanthropic undertakings and preservationist activities have been recognized by some of America's most respected authorities. With his friend and colleague Addison Wiggin, he co-founded The Daily Reckoning in 1999, and together they co-wrote the New York Times best-selling books Financial Reckoning Day and Empire of Debt. His other works include Mobs, Messiahs and Markets (with Lila Rajiva), Dice Have No Memory, and most recently, Hormegeddon: How Too Much of a Good Thing Leads to Disaster. His most recent project is The Bill Bonner Letter.
i like this article and i dont because the oil is NOT a good thing but the stuff about money is SO true kate, 11 in 5th grade
Thanks for the tip, Bill! I’m heading to the Gulf to collect oil and start my own business. “Zed’s sea oil.”
Yes, B.P. Deny Everything!!!
It worked for O.J.!!
(Now if only they can stack the jury with oil executives, their peers after all)
I have Good News and I have Bad news about the stock markets and can express both in the same two words.
ortis reading? cringe. and i should trust anything in this article?
i think you’re gunning for otis redding.
The US Social Security program is complete mess. The funds needed to pay these benefits are quickly drying up, and agreeable solutions are in short supply. But all is not lost... There actually IS a viable way to "save" Social Security. But as Dave Gonigam explains, you're probably not going to like it. Read on...
This summer, the worst Ebola outbreak ever recorded hit sub-Saharan Africa. But the greatest danger, as Stephen Petranek explains, is that the virus will have a chance to mutate into a form that spreads more easily. And if that happens, there will be far reaching consequences - from both a health and an investment side. Read on...
Everyone in the world has a unique talent or skill that someone else might find useful. Whether it's editing video, speaking Spanish or even eating paper, chances are there is someone out there willing to pay for what you have to offer. Today, Chris Campbell shows you one way to find those consumers and how to make your skill work for you...
For the last few years, gun enthusiasts have been concerned that the Feds would find a way to block their access to firearms. Now those fears appear to be subsiding... and so do gun sales. Greg Guenthner explains how to navigate this market in the coming months and years. Read on...
The gold mining sector is one of the most difficult areas of the market to navigate successfully. But there is money to be made here. Henry Bonner sits down with one of the giants of this industry and picks his brain about how to find winners in this market and the four things every great investment has in common. Read on...