Bill Bonner

Stocks went up yesterday. They’ve gone up so far, for so long we almost wish we had bought some.

But wait… Look at the stock market in terms of gold. Stocks have lost more than 75% of their value over the last 10 years – and they’re still going down.

Yesterday, gold went up again. So did oil. The sell-off we’ve been expecting is still in the future. But a sell-off is coming. Because this economy is still in a Great Correction; much remains to be corrected.

Nothing we read about the economy is consistent with the feds’ description of it.

The way they tell it, the economy is now recovering from a recession – thanks to their decisive action. But the facts don’t support the recovery fantasy.

Homeowners, for example, are still getting killed. More than 28% of them are now underwater. Bloomberg is on the story:

More than 28 percent of US homeowners owed more than their properties were worth in the first quarter as values fell the most since 2008, Zillow Inc. said today.

Homeowners with negative equity increased from 22 percent a year earlier as home prices slumped 8.2 percent over the past 12 months, the Seattle-based company said. About 27 percent of homes with mortgages were “underwater” in the fourth quarter, according to Zillow, which runs a website with property-value estimates and real-estate listings.

Home prices fell 3 percent in the first quarter and will drop as much as 9 percent this year as foreclosures spread and unemployment remains high, Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries said. Prices won’t find a floor until 2012, he said.

The number of homes with negative equity rose to 16.2 million in the first quarter from 13.1 million a year earlier, Zillow said.

In Las Vegas, 85 percent of homes with mortgages were underwater, the most of any city tracked by Zillow. Other metropolitan areas in the top five were Reno, Nevada, at 73 percent; Phoenix at 68 percent; and Modesto, California, and Tampa, Florida, both at 60 percent. Zillow has tracked negative equity since the first quarter of 2009, when more than 22 percent of homes were underwater.

But getting a clear picture of the economy is hard.

Here’s another Bloomberg report that tells us something interesting. A good part of current consumer spending is not coming from an economic recovery; it’s a by-product of the fall in housing prices:

May 6 (Bloomberg) – Melissa White and her husband stopped paying their mortgage in May 2008 after it reset to $3,200 a month, more than double the original rate. That gave them extra cash to pay off debts and spend on staples until their Las Vegas home sold two years later for less than they owed.

“We didn’t pay it for about 24 months,” said White, who quit her job as a beautician during that period after becoming pregnant with her first child and experiencing medical complications. “What we had, we could put towards food and the truck payments and insurance and health things I was dealing with.”

Millions of Americans have more money to spend since they fell delinquent on their mortgages amid the worst housing collapse since the Great Depression. They are staying in their homes for free about a year and a half on average, buying time to restructure their finances and providing an unexpected support for consumer spending, which makes up about 70 percent of the economy.

So-called “squatter’s rent,” or the increase to income from withheld mortgage payments, will be an estimated $50 billion this year, according to Michael Feroli, chief US economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York.

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning

Bill Bonner

Since founding Agora Inc. in 1979, Bill Bonner has found success and garnered camaraderie in numerous communities and industries. A man of many talents, his entrepreneurial savvy, unique writings, philanthropic undertakings, and preservationist activities have all been recognized and awarded by some of America's most respected authorities. Along with Addison Wiggin, his friend and colleague, Bill has written two New York Times best-selling books, Financial Reckoning Day and Empire of Debt. Both works have been critically acclaimed internationally. With political journalist Lila Rajiva, he wrote his third New York Times best-selling book, Mobs, Messiahs and Markets, which offers concrete advice on how to avoid the public spectacle of modern finance. Since 1999, Bill has been a daily contributor and the driving force behind The Daily ReckoningDice Have No Memory: Big Bets & Bad Economics from Paris to the Pampas, the newest book from Bill Bonner, is the definitive compendium of Bill's daily reckonings from more than a decade: 1999-2010. 

Recent Articles

5 Min. Forecast
What Your Grocery Bill Says About Your Investment Future

Dave Gonigam

Despite rapidly rising food prices, American households still spend relatively little on groceries. And while plenty of factors contribute to lower food costs in the US, that can lead to serious competition... and that means a good investment opportunity is right around the corner. Dave Gonigam explores...


New Index Points to a Steep Drop in Asset Prices

Chris Mayer

Wouldn't it be convenient to know how fragile or how prone to cracking up the stock market... bond market... and housing market are? Well, Chris Mayer recently created a new index that does just that. And it's signaling that a sharp drop in asset prices is a high possibility. Read on...


How Google Helped Legitamize Bitcoin

Luke Mcgrath

Since its introduction more than nine years ago, bitcoin has gone from fledgling digital currency to complete phenomenon. And while it still has its detractors, there's good reason to believe that bitcoin could very well be the "currency of the future" its proponents claim it is. And Google just agreed with them. Luke McGrath explains...


Protect Yourself from the Crony Capitalists

Richard Ebeling

Capitalism has become a dirty word in America. But that's only because the current form of capitalism being practiced in the U.S. is a corrupt version of what the Founding Fathers had in mind... It's now something wholly unrecognizable and far more dangerous than what any of them had in mind. Richard Ebeling explains...


Addison Wiggin
Cash-In on the Long-Term Trend in Farmland

Addison Wiggin

"Buy land," the old saying goes, "they're not making it anymore." Of course, there's more to it than that. But if you look closely at some of the disturbing trends in US farmland, you'll find that this could be some of the best investment advice you get all year. Addison Wiggin has the full story...


Why You Should Rethink Your Earnings Season Strategy

Greg Guenthner

From heightened political pressure on Russia to the conflict between Israel and Palestine, it seems world events in the last week have really spooked the markets. But even before that, there was something else that was worrying investors... earnings. Today, Greg Guenthner explains how this will play out...