Americans had something to celebrate this Independence Day. QE2 – the Feds’ $600 billion money-printing program – ended on Friday. And guess what? The world didn’t end with it.
Instead, the stock market gave a loud ‘yahoo!’ The Dow rose 168 points. If QE2 is going to be the death of the US economy, the stock market doesn’t see it.
Not that stock market investors always have 20/20 vision. These were the same people who were buying Lehman Bros. and mortgage lenders stock just before the company collapsed.
So, we’re not saying that today’s prices will necessarily be the same as tomorrow’s. The market may know the price of everything at every moment. But it doesn’t know the value. So, as it discovers value, it changes its mind about the price.
Still, we find it mildly disturbing that the Fed can cut off a $100 million-a-month buying program without upsetting investors’ sangfroid. It doesn’t make us wonder about the Fed…but about investors. What’s wrong with them?
But since it was a national holiday, we decided not to worry about it.
Instead, we’d spared a little pity for the US Senate. The poor senators decided to stay in session this 4th of July. They thought it was important to pretend to solve the US debt crisis.
As you know, from the day of its founding – that is, July 4th, 1776 – to the present day, the feds have run up approximately $14.3 trillion of official national debt. And since Congress has only authorized $14.3 trillion of debt, they’re running into a problem. Either they pass a new law, raising the debt ceiling. Or they cut spending so they don’t have to borrow more money. Or, they treat the debt ceiling law like the US constitution, and simply ignore it.
We know which choice we would make. But nobody asked our opinion, so we’ll keep it to ourselves.
The debt ceiling is distraction. It’s just an American nuance to a genuine problem that is plaguing all the mature democratic/capitalistic economies. Greece, Britain, Ireland…dozens of other countries…and the US.
As regular readers of this Daily Reckoning know, It is a problem with the funding of the modern social welfare state…and the ‘social contract’ itself. The bargain is this:
The people give up 20% to 50% of their output…and sometimes, their lives…to their government.
In return, the government promises to make their lives better than they would be otherwise.
But how can the feds make the common citizen’s life better? If it gives them back in services only as much as they’ve paid in taxes, what’s the point? In fact, the government can’t even do that. It is a poor capital allocator. And there’s a huge amount of inefficiency and friction in the system. So, the government spends money unwisely. It gets a poor return. If people get half of what they pay for it will be a miracle.
When the system was first invented, in the 19th century, it worked well enough. GDP growth rates were high. Old people, regulations and government-provided services were few.
But as the system matured, over 150 years, it became zombified. That is, the friction, misallocation of resources, fixed costs, old people and parasites increased. The feds spent more and more. People got less and less for it. They didn’t want to raise taxes…because the voters would feel they weren’t getting their money’s worth. But the voters still wanted more and more ‘services.’ So, from approximately the end of the “30 glorious years” following WWII…in about 1980…to the present, the government was only able to expand services by borrowing.
And now, borrowing is becoming a problem. Wise…or lucky…countries such as Greece and Britain (not necessarily in that order) are now being forced to cut back. Either because they can’t borrow now…or they fear they won’t be able to do so in the future. Naturally, the zombies don’t like it. They’ve taken to the streets in Athens as well as London.
In London, the schoolteachers “interrupted” services all across England last week. In Greece, they didn’t even have to strike; they weren’t supplying much service anyway.
Where will this lead? We don’t know. But it’s a serious question. And we don’t think about serious questions on a national holiday. Besides, it’s probably against the law.
Bill Bonnerfor The Daily Reckoning
Since founding Agora Inc. in 1979, Bill Bonner has found success and garnered camaraderie in numerous communities and industries. A man of many talents, his entrepreneurial savvy, unique writings, philanthropic undertakings, and preservationist activities have all been recognized and awarded by some of America's most respected authorities. Along with Addison Wiggin, his friend and colleague, Bill has written two New York Times best-selling books, Financial Reckoning Day and Empire of Debt. Both works have been critically acclaimed internationally. With political journalist Lila Rajiva, he wrote his third New York Times best-selling book, Mobs, Messiahs and Markets, which offers concrete advice on how to avoid the public spectacle of modern finance. Since 1999, Bill has been a daily contributor and the driving force behind The Daily Reckoning. Dice Have No Memory: Big Bets & Bad Economics from Paris to the Pampas, the newest book from Bill Bonner, is the definitive compendium of Bill's daily reckonings from more than a decade: 1999-2010.
Fed can cut off a $100 million-a-month buying program without upsetting investors’ sangfroid
I believe you mean $100 billion. Otherwise, it’s just some chump change.
“old people and zombies”, huh?
it’s not the zombies who are rioting in the streets. it’s those who are expected to continue paying unproductive tax-buying infestors who are rioting in the streets. and you haven’t seen real rioting. not yet.
Last I heard, Americans were only paying 16% of their income to the government, not 20-50%. The tax bite is the lowest since the early 1950′s.
I wish it was just 16%…than I would be able to stimulate the economy by being an even bigger consumer/patriot than I already am. Sadly, I lose close to 25%…if only the Feds would stop trying to provide services I just don’t want.
If you’re paying 25% you are doing real well for yourself.
Tax rates in the USA are the lowest since 1950, when Harry Truman was in office.
From the USA Today article:
“Federal, state and local taxes — including income, property, sales and other taxes — consumed 9.2% of all personal income in 2009, the lowest rate since 1950, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports.”
9.2% ?? You must be joking. The sales tax alone is that high in most places, add in property tax, state and federal income tax, social security tax and medicare tax, –and the total quickly approaches exactly what Bonner claims. Add in other required payments which are pretty much a tax as well, -like insurance (auto, health, PMI, etc) and the total easily zooms past 50%.
Unless, of course, you are supper rich in which case you pay almost nothing since most of your income is claimed in the Cayman Islands.
Brad DeLong, who seemed to subscribe to the view held by you seems to have a change of heart… he writes in “The Sorrow and the Pity of Another Liquidity Trap” that after a depression, in a slack economy, QE is not inflationary…
Contrary to much public opinion, the idea of a nanny state is great, but like everything else it requires constant attention, checks, and adjustments. It is the best way to deal with some social problems, but it requires responsible oversight. Just because the car needs a tune-up doesn’t mean we need to throw it away.
If QE involves over-printing of money then it will ALWAYS lead to inflation, whether its after a depression or not. The only way to boost an economy effectively in the long term is to try eliminate whatever caused the depression in the first place !
When you've got a room full of 200 oil insiders scratching their heads at current high prices, something's gotta give.
For most investors, it’s weird to think of stocks as their go-to investing option.
The petropoly has bills to pay and setting the price of oil was a simple way to balance their budgets.
Investors don’t seem to care that what's propping up their investments is what will ultimately destroy them: government monetary policy.
For the next decade the energy revolution will be likely confined to the US, displaying the robustness of American entrepreneurship.
Why the Sage of Baltimore’s commentary persists through America’s changing times.
After attending Platt’s oil conference in London I want to relay two important themes you need to know.