We recently reported the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has been accepting gold like a “pawn shop” for central banks, but the BIS has since changed its tune. It emailed The Wall Street Journal to say the 346 tonnes of gold it has added to its vaults belong to commercial banks and not to central banks. Sure, anything’s possible… yet this version of events seems unlikely, and we’ll explain why below.
For reference, the gold holdings-related content in question comes from page 171 of the June 2010 BIS Annual Report:
“Included in ‘Gold bars held at central banks’ is SDR 8,160.1 million (346 tonnes) (2009: nil) of gold, which the Bank held in connection with gold swap operations, under which the Bank exchanges currencies for physical gold. The Bank has an obligation to return the gold at the end of the contract.”
This was initially interpreted by The Wall Street Journal as reflecting an increase in gold swaps from central banks looking for cash. However, the WSJ has since corrected itself to say it reflects only gold loaned to the BIS by commercial banks, and not central banks.
Today, an interesting potential explanation for the updated phrasing was offered up by gold forecaster Julian Phillips. From GoldSeek.com:
“The Wall Street Journal informs us that the B.I.S. did these swaps with commercial banks. We know of no commercial bank that has 382 tonnes of gold on their books. It is likely then that should these commercial banks have been in the deal, they would have been acting for a central bank [or several over time] who wished to remain anonymous.”
Phillips provides one of the more palatable explanations for the BIS’ language update. Commercial banks are largely dependent on income-generating assets and securities, and it doesn’t make much sense for them to hold actual physical gold. Further, it does seem logical that a central bank “pawning” its gold would want to make the chain of custody as murky as possible, and involving a commercial bank is a sensible enough way of achieving that end.
If it is true — that central banks are still behind this “biggest gold swap in history” — what’s the significance of the transaction?
Here’s Phillips’ take:
“What is significant about this or these transactions is that gold is being used in international settlements after so many decades of being sidelined in the monetary system! The transaction itself confirms that gold is being used in international settlements, which is a dynamic confirmation of gold’s return to the monetary system.
“A ‘Swap’ might be the first desperate step in such a transaction with the swapping bank hoping to repay the foreign exchange, but should it fail, the B.I.S. would have to decide either to keep the gold on its books or to sell it. Again, keeping it on its books is part confirmation that gold is active again on the monetary system, a big boost by itself! Gold is back and alive in the monetary system!”
Phillips sees this use of gold in international transactions as being even more important than recent increases in gold net purchasing by central banks. Not only are central banks adding to their stores of the yellow metal, but they are also putting the asset to work as a financial instrument.
This story is bound to develop further, and we’ll be here to report back as to exactly which shell this golden “pea” crawled out from under.
You can also read more details in GoldSeek.com coverage of why gold is back as money.
The Daily Reckoning
The gold price level has pulled back of late and there’s a new reason to explain the move. Commodity Online suggests the price of gold could be taking a hit from the record rate at which the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has been growing its holdings of central bank gold. The BIS has the […]
Rocky Vega is publisher of Agora Financial International, where he advances the growth of Agora Financial publishing enterprises outside of the US. Previously, he was publisher of The Daily Reckoning, and founding publisher of both UrbanTurf and RFID Update -- which he ran from Brazil, Chile, and Puerto Rico -- as well as associate publisher of FierceFinance. Rocky has an honors MS from the Stockholm School of Economics and an honors BA from Harvard University, where he served on the board of directors for Let?s Go Publications, Harvard Student Agencies, and The Harvard Advocate.
For God’s sake, somebody, enybody, any living been, sow those 349 tons of gold?!!!!….
Because if NOT!!!!!
That’s just another (sooner failed ) attempt to supress the gold price…
They just become desperate…
And China is not helping…
Got the point?…
Despite slight upticks and subtle variations, the economy has been dragging its feet on a straight line slog since the end of the recession six years ago. After a lackluster rebound, is another financial tailspin pending? David Stockman has more...
“Market Death” -- ominous as it may sound, it’s the key to profiting in hard times, says Byron. Across the world, “too much” oil supply is moving about at a price below marginal cost of production. Market Death is the only thing that works to cut back supply and firm up prices…
It's not unprecedented for an index to take more than a decade to reclaim a previous high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 each took 25 years to reach their heights of the 1929 boom
Computers are not smarter than the human brain... yet. Find out why that could change, and if you should be worried. Stephen Petranek has more...
A lot of people think about gold as a percentage of a country’s total reserves. They are surprised to learn that the United States has 70 percent of its reserves in gold. Meanwhile, China only has about 1 percent of its reserves in gold. Jim Rickards explains why the U.S. helps manipulate the price of gold for China’s benefit...