11/09/09 Stockholm, Sweden – “This is going to be the mother of all jobless recoveries,” said Gluskin Sheff & Associates’ David Rosenberg today in an interview. Noting that at the beginning of the year very few anticipated 10 percent unemployment, he now expects a “post-World War II high of 13 percent.” That would be the highest jobless rate since 1948.
He also outlined several other important points. First, he sees the economy as in a secular post credit bubble collapse. Second, he doesn’t believe cash constraints are keeping businesses from increasing employment, he thinks that they are much more concerned about the poor economic outlook. Lastly, he insists that the Treasury, given the record $1.42 trillion budget deficit, is on an unsustainable fiscal trajectory regardless of whether the economy improves or not.
Let’s face it… as challenging as the economy is now, 13 percent unemployment would be much worse. This is one more reason to doubt the American consumer, and the industries he supports. If he stays un- or underemployed there’s no bounce back headed this way anytime soon. More details are available from Bloomberg in its Rosenberg interview on 13 percent joblessness.
Rocky Vega
Rocky Vega is publisher of Agora Financial International, where he advances the growth of Agora Financial publishing enterprises outside of the US. Previously, he was publisher of The Daily Reckoning, and founding publisher of both UrbanTurf and RFID Update -- which he ran from Brazil, Chile, and Puerto Rico -- as well as associate publisher of FierceFinance. Rocky has an honors MS from the Stockholm School of Economics and an honors BA from Harvard University, where he served on the board of directors for Let’s Go Publications, Harvard Student Agencies, and The Harvard Advocate.
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