Remember When… Urban Population Growth Exploded in Asia… and Still is?
Welcome to the Daily Reckoning’s “Remember When” series. Each day we turn back the clock and take a look at our musings from five and ten years ago to the day.
Not only will you be shocked at just how quickly time passes, but you can see what we predicted correctly, what we missed the mark on, and how history does, in fact, have a habit of rhyming.
There’s nothing to report on from ten years ago… and only one thing worth reporting from five years ago. So, we turn back the clock by a half-decade…
June 5, 2010 in The Daily Reckoning…
“Urbanization a Key to Consumption”
Five years ago today, our friend Frank Holmes predicted that by 2025, China’s urban population would be three times that of the United States’. To boot, he expected India’s population to double.
“This urban growth is important because it will be the region’s catalyst for economic growth. ” wrote Frank. “More pay allows for more frivolous spending, and the MGI estimated that the number of Indian households with discretionary spending could jump from 13 million a decade ago, in 2005, to 89 million by 2025. MGI also said that discretionary spending will account for 70% of consumption growth, and that urban centers will grow in western China, causing consumption levels for materials, goods, and services to rise.”
We hinted at such a shift in our eclectic article from May 8th. Whether or not the Chinese can pivot smoothly from exports to domestic consumption remains to be seen…
Thanks for joining us for another editorial glimpse back in time.
À tout à l’heure,
Genevieve LeFranc
for The Daily Reckoning
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