Dan Amoss

All central banks are desperate to stop stress from building in the global banking system. Despite what they say, job No. 1 of every central bank is to do whatever it takes to prevent a disorderly collapse of banks caused by “bank runs.” These central bankers are crazy, and nothing will stop them from supporting the status quo.

A group of the largest central banks in the world announced a coordinated easing program on Wednesday morning. This will involve printing more of their home currencies and lending these currencies to other central banks, which, in turn, will re-lend these currencies to local banks.

Many European banks have, essentially, been cut off from borrowing in the private credit markets. So central banks are going to ignore the fact that most of these European banks are insolvent and offer them easier and easier access to long-term funding in whichever currency they need to borrow.

The entirely predictable result will be similar to what we see in the US: zombie banks whose assets will feature fewer and fewer private-sector loans and more and more government bonds.

How is this supposed to foster global economic recovery? It seems like a perfect accelerant for global stagflation.

In other words, the world will have plenty of consumers, financed by government budgets, which are, in turn, financed by both compliant private banks and central banks. But will the world have enough producers?

The Fed and most of the other central banks believe the Western economies suffer from “deficient demand” and, therefore face the risk of “deflation.” But I disagree…vehemently. Bad credit needs to default and infirm corporations need to perish if the Western economies are to have any chance of beginning a new phase of renewal and growth.

But that’s not the plan that’s on the table. “Plan A,” in the modern playbook of central banking is to artificially support asset prices and to bail out sickly too-big-to-fail banks. The plan sounds like it could be relatively painless, but it will be extremely painful.

In the end, savers of paper money will pick up the tab — over a multiyear period — for all of these government- and banking-created disasters. The system of government, banking and central banking, as it’s currently configured, will force the responsible to bail out the irresponsible…once again.

Once central banks start lending to insolvent banks, there can be no orderly exit. When sovereign defaults occur — and they will, in Greece and Portugal, and probably Italy and Spain — there will be an acceleration of money-printing to keep the system propped up.

We may even see the Fed and the ECB lend to the IMF, which will re-lend cash to the PIIGS in the form of a “debtor in possession” loan that will, effectively, allow European banks to keep pretending that they have no losses on PIIGS bonds.

Here’s a fun game: Try to imagine your own fiat-money-driven, rule-changing scenario for “rescuing” the Western financial system. There’s a pretty decent chance the central bankers will try it at some point.

But there’s a big difference between press releases that goose the stock market and policies that foster genuine economic growth. This week, for example, the public in Greece and Italy are likely to be furious when their “technocratic” leaders from the banking establishment sign away their sovereignty to the EU and the IMF at this week’s summit. There will be more riots and strikes, which will make the goals of budget austerity even less likely than they are already.

Despite the obvious state of unavoidable depression in the PIIGS economies, the EU and ECB will get more and more radical in their tactics to protect the core EU banking system from collapsing under the weight of credit exposure to the PIIGS. All of this action is being done to protect banks, and as a result, will steadily suck the lifeblood from the private sector.

In short, I am not optimistic.

Therefore, my strategy at the Strategic Short Report remains the same: Identify the likeliest victims of the ongoing credit contraction in the private sector. American Airlines (AMR), a company I urged my subscribers to sell short several months ago was a classic example. AMR just filed for bankruptcy. There will be many more.

Regards,

Dan Amoss,
for The Daily Reckoning

Dan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, is a student of the Austrian school of economics, a discipline that he uses to identify imbalances in specific sectors of the market. He tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that the market typically misses. Amoss is a Maryland native, a graduate of Loyola University Maryland, and earned his CFA charter in 2005. In spring 2008, he recommended Lehman Brothers puts, advising readers to hold the position as the stock fell from $45 to $12. Amoss is our macro strategist and guardian of The 5 Min. Forecast PRO.

  • Banker John Galt

    “Bad Credit” may need to default. But no central bank is going to the allow the 1% who hold those loans to go down. They will crash the system to save a few cronies.

  • gman

    “But will the world have enough producers?”

    ah! someone who gets it!

    the answer is no, it will not. and for those of you who hoard gold and silver, you may wish to consider that. and you may also wish to consider that if producers are reduced in number by half, this does not reduce production by half, it reduces it by 2/3 to 3/4.

    “How is this supposed to foster global economic recovery?”

    ah. you don’t get it. it’s not supposed to.

    here’s the deal. the bankers want free money. if they can’t get it with debt currency and commercial loans with voluntary “repayments” they’ll get it with debt money and government loans with involuntary “repayments”. that’s it. that’s the whole deal. that’s what it’s all about. as producers decline in number you will see banks and governments and infestors and whoever else who actually understands what is going on fight harder and harsher to claim and corral for their own use those few remaining producers.

  • http://www.cbhbank.com mountainview

    The game will only end, when the real surplus economies in Asia and OPEC will refuse to accept Mickey Mouse currencies for payment. Currently they try to diversify, but it’s not easy.

  • PXT

    All central banks around the world have the printing copyright and of course supreme commanders get the loyalties.

  • http://Fiveanswerspleasetryagainsossecret Tavatshai Kunnasuit

    s.o.s subpoena (Saletigi).

Recent Articles

Bill Bonner
An Easy Way to Avoid Pig-Headed Mistakes

Bill Bonner

Taken individually, most people perform relatively well in their daily lives. They get up, drive to work and interact with various other people, largely without incident. But when big groups of people get together, they can be incredibly pig-headed, demanding "action" when the best course of action would simply be inaction. And before you know it, chaos ensues. Bill Bonner explains...


Attack on America’s Most Important Pipeline

Byron King

America's most precious resource isn't oil, natural gas, gold or any other commodity. But it travels through an extensive pipeline that, if severed, could signal an unprecedented breach in U.S. security. What is this pipeline, and why is it so imperative that the U.S. take steps to protect it? Byron King explains...


3 Critical Correction Warnings

Greg Guenthner

The S&P 500 just clocked a new closing high last week, while the Dow and the Nasdaq both fell just short or their previous highs. But under the surface, you'll find a few bits of evidence pointing toward lower prices. And right now, there are seeing several warning signs that could point to market weakness. Greg Guenthner explains...


Extra!
Where You Can Make $56,000 a Year Delivering Pizzas

Jim Mosquera

US unemployment rates are some of the most dubious and debatable numbers in economics. And when you look at how the government fudges them it's easy to see why. Today Jim Mosquera attempts to make sense of them, and includes an insightful commentary on another controversial topic: minimum wage. Read on...


Addison Wiggin
The Quickest, Easiest Way to Store Your Wealth Overseas

Addison Wiggin

Over the years, the feds have made it increasingly difficult for you to maintain any semblance of financial freedom. So today, Addison Wiggin details one strategy that will go a long way to keeping them at bay, and allow you to keep more of your hard-earned money in the process. Read on...