Bill Bonner

What happened to the recovery? This report from AP:

WASHINGTON (AP) – Sales of previously occupied homes dipped 2.2 percent in May, signaling that a boost from home-buying tax credits is fading sooner than expected.

Last month’s sales fell from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.66 million, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. Analysts who had expected sales to rise expressed concern that the real estate market could tumble once the benefit of the federal incentives is gone entirely, starting next month.

Sales have climbed 25 percent from the 4.5 million annual rate hit in January 2009 – the lowest level of the recession. But they’re still down 22 percent from the peak rate of 7.25 million in September 2005.

Economists were surprised, say the reports. The feds are still paying buyers $8,000 to buy a house. And still the number of buyers is going down.

What this revealed about the housing market was much less interesting than what this revealed about economists, who seem to be completely unaware of what is going on.

They think the economy is recovering. So, why aren’t more houses selling?

Meredith Whitney: “No doubt we have entered a double dip for housing.”

Well, it may be a surprise to economists. And it’s surely a disappointment to most Americans. But to us here at The Daily Reckoning it’s just another day in a Great Correction.

Housing hasn’t been corrected. There are still millions of homeowners with scores to settle. They paid too much. Their houses are now worth less than what they paid. It’s just a matter of time until they default…or their debt is restructured.

We get our news from CNN en Español on the way to work. We’re trying to learn to speak Spanish. We learned this morning that more than a million Hispanic homeowners are in danger of losing their houses. Typically, they bought a little too late in the cycle. Typically too…they lost their jobs in construction or the service industry.

Detroit is dealing with its surplus housing issue. “Detroit razing itself,” says a news report. Good idea. There are vast areas of Baltimore that should be razed too. Baltimore hit its peak population in the ’60s. It’s been downhill ever since, with only about half as many people in the city today as in its heyday.

But the Great Correction has targeted much more than the housing industry.

“For small companies the credit crunch won’t go away,” says a Wall Street Journal headline. That’s what happens in a correction. Banks are reluctant to lend. The banks are holding onto cash. So are other businesses. And smart individuals hold cash too. Few people want to start new businesses or finance them. Because the odds of losing money are too great. The real economy isn’t expanding; it’s contracting. That means businesses are fighting for market share…and fighting to stay alive. Banks figure they’d rather put their money into a sure thing – US Treasury bonds.

And here’s another aspect of the Great Correction:

“Extremely bad profit margin outlook,” says a Bloomberg report.

The margin outlook is bad because companies have tried to protect profits by squeezing out unnecessary costs – including employees. But there is only so much of that you can do.

Besides, cost-cutting has a negative effect on the economy. One company’s costs are another company’s top line revenue. So you can see where that leads. One cuts and the other must cut too. Pretty soon, you have a correction…maybe a recession…and maybe a depression.

Yesterday, the Dow dropped 148 points. Gold went nowhere.

Our guess is that the Dow has a lot more dropping to do. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, writing in the Telegraph:

Core CPI in the US has fallen to the lowest level since the mid-1960s. Unlike the blow-off gold spike of the Nixon-Carter era, this rally has echoes of the 1930s. It is a harbinger of deflation stress.

Capital Economics calculates that the M3 money supply in the US has been contracting over the past three months at an annual rate of 7.6pc. The yield on two-year Treasury notes is 0.71pc. This is an economy in the grip of debt destruction.

Albert Edwards from Societe Generale says the Atlantic region is one accident away from outright deflation – that 9th Circle of Hell, “abandon all hope, ye who enter.” Such an accident may be coming. The ECRI leading indicator for the US economy has fallen at the most precipitous rate for half a century, dropping to a 45-week low. The latest reading is -5.70, the level it reached in late-2007 just as Wall Street began to roll over and then crash. Neither the Fed nor the US Treasury were then aware that the US economy was already in recession. The official growth models were wildly wrong.

David Rosenberg from Gluskin Sheff said analysts are once again “asleep at the wheel” as the Baltic Dry Index measuring freight rate for bulk goods breaks down after a classic triple top. The recovery in US railroad car loadings appears to have stalled, with volume still down 10.5pc from June 2008.

The National Association of Home Builders’ index of “future sales” fell in May to the lowest since the depths of slump in early 2009. RealtyTrac said home repossessions have reached a fresh record. A further 323,000 families were hit with foreclosure notices last month. “We’re nowhere near out of the woods,” said the firm.

Companies are worth what people will pay for them. But a correction drives top line revenues down. Companies are not worth as much as they were when the top line was going up. Gradually a depressive mentality takes over. People begin to doubt that ‘recovery’ is right around the corner. They begin to wonder why they paid so much for a house…or for stocks. They begin to figure out how to get out of the deal.

In the case of the house, they let the mortgage company know that they’re not going to continue paying for something that is falling in value.

And in the case of stocks, they sell.

Stocks and housing keep going down and until they finally reach the dismal, desperate bottom.

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning

Bill Bonner

Since founding Agora Inc. in 1979, Bill Bonner has found success and garnered camaraderie in numerous communities and industries. A man of many talents, his entrepreneurial savvy, unique writings, philanthropic undertakings, and preservationist activities have all been recognized and awarded by some of America's most respected authorities. Along with Addison Wiggin, his friend and colleague, Bill has written two New York Times best-selling books, Financial Reckoning Day and Empire of Debt. Both works have been critically acclaimed internationally. With political journalist Lila Rajiva, he wrote his third New York Times best-selling book, Mobs, Messiahs and Markets, which offers concrete advice on how to avoid the public spectacle of modern finance. Since 1999, Bill has been a daily contributor and the driving force behind The Daily ReckoningDice Have No Memory: Big Bets & Bad Economics from Paris to the Pampas, the newest book from Bill Bonner, is the definitive compendium of Bill's daily reckonings from more than a decade: 1999-2010. 

  • CommonCents

    Bummer dude.

  • NumbNuts

    I believe peak population for most older east-coast cities was actually in the 1950′s. (You can verify it in the Almanac.) It’s been a long, slow grind.
    I thought the Convention Center was gonna change that, er, I mean the Fish Market, the Power Plant, the stadiums, the ESPN Zone, etc, etc.
    I hope the last person to leave Balto remembers to turn out the lights.

  • Sick

    This is absurd, there is NO way that anything should be “corrected” These people knew what they were buying into. If thats the case then correct all the financial situations of all the unemployed americans that are living off their credit cards due to corporate greed. Then I say go ahead and “correct” the foreclosure situation.

  • Merrill

    I have three (2 new and 1 used) homes, for one simple reason, they are the best investment right now. Remember buy low and sell high? You can’t buy anything during these inflationary times at below cost except for homes. Gold, hah, it’s outrageously high and real estate historically moves along with inflation like gold. If you don’t believe we are in a great inflationary period, try buying anything at the store. It’s almost shocking. Homes and gold should be moving together not inversely. It’s pretty simple, buy homes instead. This period of time will go down in history as one of the most unusual, when you can buy a home for less than cost at very low interest rates. In a couple of years, current home prices will be talked about as well as very very cheap. I coulduv/shoulduv bought a home in 2010 for blah blah, they will say. Little good it will do them to talk about it then. This is a perfect storm bringing at least three fronts that are now creating a home buying opportunity the likes of which have never been seen before.

    Homes have no where to go but up. Supply/Demand is currently moving to a sellers market and it won’t be long until it is a sellers market again. Foreclosures indicate that they are not much of the big factor everyone thinks they are. Banks with practically free money can sit on them forever and are therefore competitive with the market. When you can buy at 20% to 40% below cost, anybody buying right now would be stupid to have a builder build one for them. I can guarantee in most markets your costs of building new will be much much more. Instead buy a new spec home from a desperate builder. Besides the price, I bought new specs because they are the most rare now and I anticipate will move up quicker than used or foreclosures. I plan to increase my sales prices by 10% a year until they sell. I’ve got the money invested, but I don’t think it will be long before I get my 10%/annum. And if it does, that’s just that much longer I will get 10%/annum. Slam dunk.

    In an up market at its peak, there are those who predict the market will continue up to unexplainable new heights. The same is true in a down market for ridiculous lows. I have used these unrealistic predictions as an indicator of a turn around point for years now and it is perhaps the best indicator I’ve ever seen. This works in any market. Like to admit it or not, most people are wrong about future markets and that is why I choose the opposite approach to predicting the future. For example, when the vast majority feel the market will be desperate for years to come, that is the precise time to buy. This type of sentiment is behind us now and is an indication that the turnaround has already begun. Charts support this bearing as well. Remember it was the few investors who called the peak of the housing market and made millions of dollars while millions of people were buying and speculating the housing market would go higher, and that includes the so called experts.

    The other thing is that the quicker a market declines, the quicker it goes back up. Check historical charts if you don’t believe me. When the current inventory dries up including foreclosures, and people realize what it costs to build new and finally decide to lock in the lowest interest rates in many many years you will see prices rebound rapidly. Once government programs get going the job market will kick in as well. Coupled with new jobs from a new housing market, jobs will skyrocket too. I would not be surprised if inflationary pressures move home prices to higher highs than the peak of the boom (about 2006) within just a couple of years. Good luck and happy home buying.

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