01/05/10 Laguna Beach, California – In today’s edition of The Daily Reckoning, we turn our attention to the “Decade of No Returns” – aka, the “Lost Decade.” Students of recent financial history may recall that our friends over in Japan have already logged a couple of “lost” decades. Japanese workers still punch time clocks every day, but the national economy barely seems to notice. Meanwhile, the Nikkei Index has surrendered 73% of its value during the last twenty years.
Here in the States, things are a little bit better. We’ve only lost ONE decade so far…
The S&P 500 Index posted a total return of MINUS 9% during the first ten years of the new millennium. And THAT was the “strong” index. The NASDAQ Composite tumbled 40% during the same 10-year span.
Stocks are not exactly synonymous with economic vitality, of course. And we know that US GDP increased during the decade. So maybe the US economy isn’t as lost as the stock market suggests. But based on the nearby chart, the economy looks so disoriented that no GPS device on the planet could lead it back to the path of productivity. In terms of job creation, the last 10 years were a complete bust.
Despite an abysmal 10-years of zero wealth creation and zero job growth, betting on a second consecutive Lost Decade seems like a bad wager. And yet, it happened in Japan…
Eric Fry
Eric J. Fry, Agora Financial’s Editorial Director, has been a specialist in international equities for nearly two decades. He was a professional portfolio manager for more than 10 years, specializing in international investment strategies and short-selling. Following his successes in professional money management, Mr. Fry joined the Wall Street-based publishing operations of James Grant, editor of the prestigious Grant's Interest Rate Observer. Working alongside Grant, Mr. Fry produced Grant's International and Apogee Research — institutional research products dedicated to international investment opportunities and short selling.
Mr. Fry subsequently joined Agora Inc., as Editorial Director. In this role, Mr. Fry supervises the editorial and research processes of numerous investment letters and services. Mr. Fry also publishes investment insights and commentary under his own byline as Editor of The Daily Reckoning. Mr. Fry authored the first comprehensive guide to investing internationally with American Depository Receipts. His views and investment insights have appeared in numerous publications including Time, Barron's, Wall Street Journal, International Herald Tribune, Business Week, USA Today, Los Angeles Times and Money.
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