This Man Understands What’s At Stake in Ukraine

I was poking around X.com when I ran into a post from Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen). Glenn is a geopolitical analyst and author who’s appeared on one of my favorite geopolitical YouTube channels, The Duran.

Glenn’s post was about the Slovakian Prime Minister, Robert Fico, and his op-ed in the Slovakian newspaper, Pravda.

I just read that editorial. It’s brilliant, and I want to share it with you.

There are a few reasons why.

As for me, since I’m on the other side of the world from the United States, I think I must provide you with information you’d never get from the US Media Industrial Complex.

Also, politicians who write in their local language in their local newspapers aren’t targeting US citizens. They’re targeting their own, which means you get a genuine message.

Just because Prime Minister Fico comes from a small country doesn’t render his message unimportant or irrelevant. He’s serving his third term as Slovakian PM and has been in Europe’s political trenches for over thirty years.

Finally, Hungary’s Viktor Orbàn isn’t alone in the EU anymore, trying to prevent more Ukrainian lives from being lost.

A Word On Slovakia

Slovakia isn’t the country Melania Trump comes from. That’s Slovenia, which was a part of the former Yugoslavia.

Slovakia was once one-half of Czechoslovakia, along with Czechia, but they mutually decided to conduct “The Velvet Divorce,” which separated the countries without a shot fired.

Czechia’s capital is the world-famous Prague. Slovakia’s capital is the less famous but altogether charming Bratislava.

Daddy fixing Micah’s hood in Bratislava’s Old Town in December 2019. Credit: Sean Ring

Here’s Slovakia within Europe:

Credit: Google Maps

Now, let’s get into the meat of the PM’s editorial.

But before we do that, please know I used Google Translate to translate the PM’s original Slovakian into English. It’s a good tool, but not perfect. So don’t mistake wonky translation for the PM’s educational level.

The West’s Ukraine Strategy Isn’t Working

Credit: Pravda (Slovakia)

From the very beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, I rejected a black-and-white vision, as desired in Washington or Brussels. The war in Ukraine has its roots already in 2014 and in the development of the Ukrainian political scene and its relationship with fellow citizens of Russian nationality. And, of course, in the total influence of the USA on everything that happened and is happening in Ukraine after 2014 until now. I may or may not be exaggerating a bit, but let’s imagine, for example, that the entire Department of Defense of Mexico, as a neighboring country of the US, was under the complete control of Russia, not to mention the political leaders, including the president.

First, Fico cites 2014 as the year this mess began in earnest, not 2022. He also blames the US. Notice his analogy of Russia controlling Mexico. It’s hardly original, but it makes the point effectively. Would the US ever put up with that? Of course not.

Fico continues:

Russia responded to the security situation and Ukraine’s pressure to join NATO by violating international law, using military force without an international mandate. Big countries often do that, let’s see what the US accomplished in Iraq. And the West, instead of immediately making every effort to achieve a quick ceasefire, at the beginning of 2022 without even losing a tenth to Ukraine, made a huge mistake. He incorrectly evaluated the use of Russian military force as an opportunity to bring Russia to its knees. One look at history. Russia was invaded by Hitler in June 1941, but the Western Allies did not open a second front until the summer of 1944, when the outcome of the war was clear in favor of the former USSR.

It is proven that at the very beginning of the war in Ukraine in 2022, the West did not allow the Ukrainians to conclude a ceasefire with fair terms on at least two very promising occasions. Because a painfully wrong decision has already been made. The West will take advantage of Russia’s violation of international law, supply Ukraine with piles of weapons, billions of dollars, load Russia with massive sanctions, attack Russia’s main mineral income and expect the Ukrainian soldier, down to the last, to bring him the Russian bear’s head on a platter in in the form of a militarily exhausted, economically ruined, internationally isolated and internally politically subverted Russia. This was and unfortunately still is the Western strategy, which I openly say at home and abroad that it does not work, that it has failed. And I don’t even agree with her. I am not one of the Slovak politicians who are happy that in Slovakia the Russian Federation is being made a mortal enemy, and I do not at all like that we are labeled as an enemy country in Russia for this reason.

Like many Western politicians, Fico alleges Russia violated international law. But he’s quick to note the US does it all the time. Fico also notes the West stupidly didn’t agree to a ceasefire that would’ve saved Ukraine in its present form. (That may still happen, but every day that passes throws the situation into further doubt.)

Fico also alleges the West is taking advantage of Russia’s international law violation to get the Ukrainians to fight the war for the West. He knows this strategy is a failed one.

Fico quickly says he disagrees with Russia, which distinguishes him from Orbàn. But he’s unhappy about Slovakia’s inclusion on Russia’s enemies list.

Fico goes on:

It is literally shocking to see how the West has repeatedly made mistakes in assessing the situation in Russia. The facts are inexorable. Russia completely controls the occupied territories militarily, and attempts to convince the international community with demagoguery about the demoralization of the Russian soldiers and the huge human losses are increasingly showing themselves as empty demagogic wishful thinking. Ukraine is not capable of any meaningful military counter-offensive, it has become completely dependent on financial aid from the West with unforeseeable consequences for Ukrainians in the years to come. It is only a matter of time when official information about land ownership in Ukraine, about the largest foreign owners, will begin to be published. The position of the Ukrainian president is shaken, while the Russian president increases and strengthens his political support. Neither the Russian economy nor the Russian currency collapsed, anti-Russian sanctions increase the internal self-sufficiency of this huge country, Russian energy giants report record deliveries to China and India. On the other hand, people from around the Ukrainian president, for the prestigious, I repeat prestigious foreign media, say that there is theft in Ukraine as if there was no tomorrow.

Of course, I do not dare to claim that Russia is not feeling the negative consequences of its February 2022 decision to use military force in Ukraine. But not by any chance to the extent that it would ruin it, as the Western planners had predicted.

Fico states the obvious: Russia is winning, and Ukraine is losing. But we’ve known this for ages. It’s refreshing to hear it from someone who deals with this stuff daily.

He also ridicules the sanctions, as we all should. Fico knows Russia is stronger thanks to its immense self-sufficiency.

But Fico also thinks Russia is suffering a bit, though he doesn’t elaborate.

Fico ends his piece with this:

I often ask myself what is defeatist about realistic and fact-based considerations about the necessity of a cease-fire in Ukraine, when it is absolutely clear to everyone that the crisis in Ukraine has no military solution. If I wish for something, it is for the Slavs to stop fighting each other for geopolitical reasons, both on the American and Russian sides. Let Ukraine follow its sovereign, not dictated, path. If he sees himself in the EU, let him get this chance, provided he meets the conditions. We will be happy to help. Russia also needs its security guarantees. And I continue to believe that we should return to the recent European rhetoric of how the EU and Russia are somewhat connected vessels and how they need each other. As Prime Minister of the Slovak Republic, I will not spread hostility towards any country in the world, I also wish for the gradual standardization of relations between EU member countries and Russia. And I will no longer be subject to stupid liberal and progressive demagoguery that offends basic human justice and will ultimately cause enormous harm.

Fico leaves the EU door open for Ukraine, though I doubt Russia will ever agree to it. And I doubt the neocons who currently run the US and EU will give Russia any security guarantees.

Wrap Up

This piece didn’t set the world on fire because of who wrote it and where it was printed. And that’s a damn shame.

I can’t see much to disagree with. Robert Fico wrote a heartfelt piece hoping to kickstart a peace process the USG isn’t willing to start on behalf of its vassal states in Europe.

How long will this last?

I suspect not much longer.

With the Middle East on fire and Taiwan electing a new president, I can see America cut its losses in Europe and move on to greener pastures.

But that may be the opening Europe is looking for.