Perfect prognostication

Wrote Chuck Butler in today's Daily Pfennig before the trade deficit numbers came out…

Today, we’ll see the color of the September trade balance/deficit – which if you recall on Monday, I talked about how the media would jump with two feet at the news that the deficit had “narrowed.” Yeah, “narrowed” to $66 billion (as forecast), like that’s any great shakes! I was looking at the monthly trade deficit postings this year, and besides the last two months when back to back record deficits were posted, this month’s $66 billion (as forecast) will be the highest one month deficit since January.

I would sure like for the media to report the number as it is. It’s still too large. It’s still on the way to an $800 billion trade deficit this year. It’s not just oil; and U.S. consumers are still spending way too much instead of saving!

Oh well. You and I know that’s not going to happen, so get ready for the hype…and the dollar strength.

Well, he nailed that — except the actual number was $64.3 billion, making for even more ridiculous headlines about the trade deficit shrinking "the most in two years."  Whatever…

The Daily Reckoning