Greenland Gambit

The Donald wants his prize: Greenland. Unlike his first term, when everyone ignored him, this time everyone’s taking him quite seriously. Why is that? Because they understand now that Trump isn’t daydreaming about owning the world. They know Greenland is a serious way to secure the North Atlantic.

A Warming Arctic, A Growing Opportunity

The Arctic is ice-free for more of the year than ever, which has profound consequences. By the mid-century, the region may have experienced completely ice-free summers, opening up previously impassable trade routes and turning the Arctic Ocean into a superhighway for global commerce. The Northern Sea Route, stretching along Russia’s coast, is already being developed as an alternative to the Suez Canal, shortening the trip from Asia to Europe by thousands of miles. Russia and China are actively expanding their Arctic presence, while the U.S. dawdles.

While harvesting Greenland’s vast resources is a nice-to-have, Trump mainly wants Greenland to counteract Russia and China’s moves. The move makes sense, and that’s why Denmark and the EU are terrified of it. Neither has the capital America has to build up Greenland the way America needs to.

Military Imperatives: Greenland as the New Cold War Battleground

Since the Cold War, Thule Air Base (now Pituffik Space Base) has anchored America’s Arctic security and its crucial early-warning system for ballistic missile defense. However, the Pentagon knows a single installation is no longer good enough. Russia dramatically expanded its military presence in the Arctic, building new air bases and reopening Soviet-era installations. Despite not being an Arctic nation, China is positioning itself as a “near-Arctic power” and working with Russia to extend its influence.

Russia completely militarized the coast along its Northern Sea Route:

This is the most recent map I could find, and it’s four years old. I don’t imagine they have less now.

As you can see, Greenland’s east coast (facing Russia) has no U.S. bases. We need four or five more to monitor the Greenland-Iceland-UK (GUIK) Gap, or we’ll be in the dark. These can also enhance America’s ability to detect missile attacks.

Greenland provides a strategic vantage point for controlling Arctic shipping lanes and monitoring adversaries’ military activities. If the United States doesn’t secure its position there, others will. Those others — chiefly China and Russia — are already making moves.

To keep up, the U.S. needs forward-operating bases in Greenland. More airstrips, radar stations, and surveillance outposts will be essential for tracking Russian and Chinese movements in the Arctic. Without them, America risks being boxed out of a critical region just as it becomes more accessible.

The Resource War: Minerals and the Future of Industry

Beyond military strategy, Greenland is a jackpot for the 21st-century economy. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, Greenland has the world’s largest untapped deposits of rare earth minerals — metals essential for everything from electric vehicle batteries to advanced weaponry. China controls around 60% of the world’s rare earth mining and a staggering 90% of the global market in rare earth processing. This dominance gives Beijing enormous leverage, as demonstrated by its recent restrictions on gallium and germanium exports.

One mineral — antimony — is at the center of Western concerns. It is essential for producing bullets, missiles, and military electronics, but the West produces almost none. China and Russia control nearly 100% of the global supply. If China chokes off the supply of antimony and other key minerals, it could impede NATO’s ability to sustain a prolonged military engagement.

Though it’s under a mile of ice, Greenland’s mineral wealth would let the U.S. secure a domestic supply chain of essential minerals, independent of Beijing and Moscow… if it can get to it. However, mining these resources requires political control, and that’s where things get tricky.

Greenland’s Political Tightrope: Between Independence and Influence

Currently, Greenland is an autonomous territory of Denmark, but independence movements are gaining traction. The local Inuit population has a complicated history with Denmark, marked by the usual colonial-era abuses. Greenlandic leaders have floated the idea of complete independence by 2030.

However, the small island nation needs to understand a stark economic reality: its GDP is just over $2 billion, and it relies heavily on Denmark for subsidies. Greenland is as poor as a church mouse, making it an easy target for Chinese “debt trap diplomacy.” Chinese firms have aggressively pursued mining projects and infrastructure deals, offering cash in exchange for long-term influence.

For DC, this is unacceptable. America cannot afford to let Greenland slip into Beijing’s orbit. Trump’s previous overture to buy Greenland was met with ridicule, but behind the bluster was a serious strategic play. If Greenland became fully independent, the U.S. would push hard to bring it into its sphere of influence—perhaps even as a new U.S. territory.

Denmark’s Dilemma: A Loyal Ally, A Weak Link

Despite being perhaps America’s most enthusiastic NATO partner, Denmark can’t defend Greenland or adequately invest in it. The Danish military is stretched thin, and its Arctic capabilities pale compared to Russia’s. Trump’s rhetoric may have been incendiary, but the underlying message is valid: Denmark either needs to step up its Arctic defense spending, which it can’t, or step aside and let America take charge.

In response to Trump’s recent remarks, Denmark has pledged an additional $2 billion for Arctic security, including new warships, drones, and satellite monitoring. But is that enough? No one, especially the U.S., is convinced. Trump’s America First strategy dictates that if an ally isn’t pulling its weight — or in this case, can’t pull enough weight despite its small size — the U.S. must take matters into its own hands.

The Bigger Picture: Arctic Supremacy and the Next Global Conflict

The battle for Greenland isn’t about one island. It’s about Arctic supremacy, the fate of critical mineral supply chains, and the global balance of power. If Russia and China gain a foothold in Greenland, America’s Arctic dominance would be damaged. U.S. adversaries would gain leverage in a region fast becoming the world’s next geopolitical flashpoint.

Trump’s approach may be abrasive, but his instincts are correct. The Arctic is emerging as a critical theater in the new Cold War, and a desolate, inhospitable rock named Greenland is at its center. Whether through diplomacy, economic investment, or outright strategic control, America cannot let Greenland slip through its fingers.

If Trump has his way, the U.S. flag will fly over Nuuk. But a generous deal to build airbases there would be good enough.