Biden Pokes the Bear

With just 2 months left in office, President Biden and his handlers have decided to poke the bear once again.

The New York Times reports that the Biden admin has given Ukraine the greenlight to strike deep into Russian territory using American missiles. The new rules will apparently allow Ukraine to strike into the Kursk region of Russia, where Ukraine has invaded, and possibly beyond.

On Tuesday, the first strikes were completed. Ukraine launched a number of missiles at an arsenal in Russia’s Bryansk region, reportedly destroying it.

The strike was conducted using US ATACMS ballistic missiles, which have a range of up to 190 miles. In the next few weeks or months Ukraine may also receive Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM), according to a Reuters report from last month.

JASSMs are American air-launched cruise missiles with a large 1,000-pound warhead and range of up to 575 miles in the extended-range version. The standard version has a range of approximately 260 miles. It is unclear which version of the JASSM Ukraine will receive.

Even before the Bryansk strikes, Ukrainian President Zelensky confirmed the NYT reporting on deep strikes, stating, “Attacks are not carried out with words; these things are not announced. The missiles will speak for themselves – they certainly will.”

Last month, President Putin made his opinion on the matter clear. He said that such long-range missile strikes would mean direct NATO involvement in the conflict, as US personnel would ultimately need to target and fire the missiles into Russia.

To be clear, Ukraine already is firing such missiles at Russian targets in formerly Ukrainian areas such as Crimea. But these areas have proven to be hard targets, as they are well-defended by Russian surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) and electronic warfare (EW) systems.

Now Russia will be forced to defend a much larger area from missile threats. Staging areas and ammo depots would come under greater threat. Several Russian cities would also be in range.

Putin may retaliate against NATO members in times and places of his choosing. Retaliation may include cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure, interdiction of shipping traffic in the Black Sea and the use of proxies in Syria, Lebanon and North Korea to attack U.S. forces or to stir regional animosities. Putin can also turn off oil and natural gas shipments to Europe at will. Iran and China stand ready to assist Russia in her efforts. Most importantly, he also leaves the nuclear option open. In all events, Biden’s blunder and Putin’s response keep the world on a path toward World War III.

Trump will be sworn in soon, and only then will a true negotiation process begin. Had Kamala won, however, there would be a much greater cause for concern.

But even with Trump incoming, the immediate result of this escalation will be more bloodshed and hardship on both sides. Russia is advancing all along the frontline and is carrying out devastating attacks on the Ukrainian energy grid. The country may accelerate its attacks if missiles are fired deep into Russia.

The approaching winter is set to be a hard one for the citizens of Ukraine.

Deep State Kicks and Screams

Trump will enter office with the expectation that he will end the war in Ukraine. In a recent Newsweek poll, 67% of Trump voters said the US should “stop” or “reconsider” support for Ukraine.

On numerous occasions, Trump has said he would bring a rapid conclusion to the war.

And I continue to believe he will begin the process as soon as possible. But the war may not end immediately, as this last-minute provocation by the Biden administration will hamper the process.

It’s clear that the deep state is not ready to concede the war in Ukraine. They mistakenly believe it can still be won. But the truth is America hasn’t won a war in a long time.

Recent American interventions have mostly been stalemates or failures. America has lost its industrial edge, exporting the bulk of our manufacturing capacity. And while we focused on fighting rebels and extremists, the rest of the world has been preparing for peer-to-peer conflicts.

We are behind on hypersonic missiles and drones. America’s advantage in strategic intelligence assets such as satellite networks is intact but eroding.

The US retains the advantage when it comes to AI and microchips. We’ve cut off adversaries’ access to high-end AI hardware. But this advantage won’t last forever. China and others now have strong incentives to develop their own technology. The restrictions will slow them down by up to a decade, but will ultimately fail.

A Multipolar World

The world is entering a multipolar era, meaning that America’s time as the lone hegemon is ending. This applies to both the military and financial worlds.

The BRICS are expanding and constructing their own parallel financial system, complete with SWIFT, IMF, and World Bank equivalents.

Eventually, the BRICS will launch their own currency, but as I’ve mentioned, this will take time to play out. They are currently building the foundation of a parallel system.

For now, they are making progress on becoming “dollar-resistant”. Their goal is to eventually become “dollar-proof”. If Trump plays his cards right, the Global South may be slowed or even dissuaded from this path.

Regardless of how it plays out, the period we are entering promises to be disruptive. It’s a good thing that Trump will oversee it. He’s a tough negotiator capable of dealing with foreign leaders. Look what he did with North Korea during his first term. His diplomacy backed us off from a dangerous collision course.

Today Trump is set to reintroduce statesmanship to the White House, and we’ll all be better off for it.