All Roads Lead to Pennsylvania

The first presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump — and potentially the only debate — takes place in Philadelphia tonight, hosted by ABC News.

There will be no live audience and neither candidate will release opening statements. Nor will either be allowed to ask questions of each other.

Both of their microphones will be muted when the other is speaking, though ABC has evidently informed the Harris campaign that the microphones may be unmuted if there is significant crosstalk between Harris and Trump.

Harris originally wanted open microphones because she believed Trump would constantly try to interrupt her, which could alienate voters, especially when the dynamic is a man interrupting a woman..

The Harris campaign subsequently agreed to muted mics.

Neither candidate is allowed to bring notes on stage. The absence of notes will hurt Harris because she is a notoriously bad extemporaneous speaker.

(I’ll appear on the Paradigm Press YouTube Channelfor a post-debate breakdown that’ll go beyond the superficial takes you’ll find in the mainstream media. All I can say is prepare yourself for the unexpected. Tune in tomorrow, Sept. 11 for a full breakdown.

Click here to subscribe — it’s 100% free — so you’ll be the first to catch this urgent video.)

Now let’s back up a bit. How did we get here?

Back and Forth

After a highly successful July for the Trump campaign including the fallout from Joe Biden’s debate flop, surviving an assassination attempt and emerging as a hero, a successful convention and the well-received choice of J.D. Vance as his vice-presidential nominee, the Trump train hit the doldrums in August.

His campaign was completely overshadowed by the coronation of Queen Kamala as the substitute Dem nominee, the resulting Harris bump in the polls and a full court press by corporate media to hide Harris’ record and somehow pretend she has not been part of the White House team since 2021.

This swift turn of events knocked the Trump team off-balance for a bit. They had spent tens of millions of dollars campaigning against Biden and now he was gone. Kamala was a non-entity in terms of accomplishments but that helped her become a kind of “ghost candidate” who did not offer specific policies but let her media lackeys fill in the blanks with leaks that bore no relationship to where she really stands.

It’s hard to hit a ghost.

By late in August, Trump started to get his mojo back. Trump continued to emphasize his core positions on immigration, inflation, the economy and crime. The public began to notice that Harris was dodging the press and had little to offer in terms of policy specifics.

Kamala Proposes “A New Way Forward”

The Trump campaign geared up their attack ads aimed either at Harris’ past radical positions or the complete absence of new positions. (The effort of the Harris campaign to copy Trump positions including “no tax on tips” and “build the wall” were mostly ridiculed as pandering. Her policy pivot was dismissed because voters understood she would never support these policies if elected.)

This Sunday, the Harris campaign issued a list of 19 specific policy proposals addressing taxes, climate, housing immigration, abortion, drug prices and more.

The plan is called “A New Way Forward,” but there’s nothing new about it. It’s basically Democratic Party boilerplate with big government solutions for every problem.

Trump and Harris are neck and neck in national polling. Among independents, Trump leads Kamala 49% to 46%, according to the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll.

But national polls are irrelevant. The U.S. doesn’t elect presidents on a national basis. They’re elected state by state with each state winner collecting a certain number of electoral votes. A candidate who receives 270 (or more) electoral votes becomes president. So it’s necessary to look at state polls to forecast a winner from the polls.

These States Will Decide the Election

There are only seven states that are seriously contested as of now: Wisconsin (WI), Pennsylvania (PA), Michigan (MI), Arizona (AZ), Nevada (NV), North Carolina (NC) and Georgia (GA). The remaining 43 states (plus D.C.) are largely decided for one candidate or the other although surprises cannot be ruled out.

Two states in this possible surprise category are New Hampshire and Virginia (Harris leads in both). I’ll watch New Hampshire and Virginia closely, but for now we’ll put them in the Harris column and focus on the seven battlegrounds.

In the critical swing states, the spreads favoring either candidate are razor-thin and within the polling margin of error. All seven battleground states are still in play and the election will likely come down to the wire.

Many polls are skewed toward Kamala to give her the appearance of being a strong candidate. But if Trump’s internal polls were as bad as the skewed public polls, he would have fired his entire crew. He hasn’t fired anyone. That means his internal polls (usually the most accurate) are positive.

The Twisting Path to 270

If Trump takes the states he took in 2020 and then flips Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania from Democrat (in 2020) to Republican, then Trump wins with the 287-251 Electoral College margin. If Trump can pick up Wisconsin, Michigan and Virginia in addition to the three must-win states, then we’re looking at an Electoral College landslide for Trump of 325-213.

Harris can afford to lose Georgia and Arizona, but then she must take Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. In that case, she would win the Electoral College 270-268. That would be the closest Electoral College margin in modern U.S. history (in 2000 Bush beat Gore 271-266).

Still, a win is a win and Harris would be president.

Of course, there are many permutations. If Harris somehow got Arizona and Georgia, she could afford to lose Pennsylvania and still win. If Trump somehow got Wisconsin and Michigan, he could afford to lose Pennsylvania and still win.

You don’t need to be an election expert to see that the entire presidential election comes down to Pennsylvania. If Trump takes it, he likely wins. If Harris takes it, she likely wins. Neither can afford to lose it without relying on a longshot combination of other states.

The bottom line is all roads lead to Pennsylvania.

“It’s the Economy, Stupid”

We also have to consider the state of the economy. As Clinton adviser James Carville famously said during the 1992 campaign, “It’s the economy, stupid.”

In particular, the employment report that was released last week could have a strong impact on the presidential race.

The jobs report showed payrolls grew by 142,000 in August, less than the 161,000 expected by analysts polled by Dow Jones. With this less-than-expected number, it signals that an economic slowdown has taken hold. It also signals that the economy is headed for a recession while a cut in interest rates is on the table for September.

The emerging recession (or actual recession if it is already here) will cause a stock market drawdown as earnings are revised downward, consumer confidence crumbles, consumer discretionary spending hits a wall and precautionary savings rise.

The employment picture is now the focus of the Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Jay Powell has pivoted from concern about inflation to concern about unemployment. The latter pivot is much more troubling because it signals that a recession is upon us and the Fed may be too late (as usual) to do anything about it.

A drawdown in the market is unquestionably positive for Trump. A major market setback would be a huge negative for Harris since the Biden-Harris administration is currently in office and cannot duck responsibility.

Political uncertainty combined with signs of an economic downturn is a recipe for disaster. For now, cash is king, gold is queen and Treasury notes are your white knights.