The Great Silver Debate

Last week, our friend Sean Ring called silver a “busted flush” on the Paradigm app’s Daily Feed:

Silver is a busted flush. Now comfortably trading under $60, silver waits for today’s inflation data. It’s expected to be higher than August’s numbers.

The market seems to be trading off the Fed’s expected response, which, if anything, is to increase rates to fight inflation. That’s putting pressure on silver and gold, but silver is suffering more.

If trading continues today the way it started, we will have a new daily downside target of $47. That matches is a long-term monthly downside target as well. Of course, that doesn’t mean silver will hit the target. But that’s the point it will move toward.

For those who don’t play poker, a busted flush isn’t great.

A few readers have written in to ask what I think about Sean’s take. So here’s my reply.

Sean’s been right. He sold his silver miners back around February 9th, when silver was trading at $83 an ounce. It’s $58 today.

He sold, I stayed long.

Throughout 2025, Sean and I were on the same page on silver (and miners). We were bullish.

But we have different time horizons. I plan to hold my silver for at least the next 10 years. I believe it’s going to be a chaotic and inflationary period. And I don’t want to have to worry about timing the market too much.

Plus, most of my precious metals investments are in taxable accounts, or storage facilities. So whenever I sell, I have to pay about 40% capital gains taxes on short-term positions, and 20% on long-term investments (over 1 year). Add in fees and commission on physical silver.

Tax efficiency is critical. If all your positions are in protected retirement accounts, that’s great. But not all of us are in that boat.

In terms of miners, some of my positions are still up 3x from when I bought them in the spring of 2025. I’ve taken about 25% profits, but am still holding the majority of my shares. I want to hold some of these juniors until they become senior miners or are acquired.

Even with today’s oil prices, and the fall in silver prices, miners are printing money.

Everybody’s situation is unique. I like to hold long-term. Sean is an excellent investor and trader, and his system works for him. He utilizes a lot of technical analysis, which isn’t something I use much.

The point is: multiple approaches can work.

Trading vs. Investing

I’ve been clear to readers about what my personal plan is. Hold my silver and other precious metals investments for the next ~10 years. I believe owning PMs and other hard assets is going to be key for wealth preservation going forward.

Long-time readers know we wrote more than a dozenarticles about why silver was a strong buy in the $30s.

And in January of this year, when we got up to the $90s, here’s what I wrote in Silver FAQs:

Is it Too Late to Buy?

This is the toughest question.

Let’s take a look at the 1-year silver chart.

What a doozy… Textbook parabolic move.

So lately, when people ask if it’s too late to buy, my answer is probably (for the short-term). I realize that’s not satisfying, but it’s what I see.

Over the long term, you guys know there’s no bigger silver bull than me. Silver is a unique metal, in that it is both industrial and monetary. And demand on both sides is absolutely booming.

But this move just seems like too much, too fast.

So it would be reckless to recommend readers/friends buy here. I suspect we’ll get a better chance to buy silver sometime in the next 5 months.

Silver went on to reach $121 an ounce briefly on January 29th.

Longer-Term: We’re Both Bullish

It’s important to note that Sean doesn’t think silver is a bad long-term investment. He’s simply being patient and waiting to buy the dip on miners.

Here’s another post Sean made on our app’s Daily Feed on October 2nd:

As I wrote yesterday‘s Rude, my price target for silver is somewhere around $56. After a brief rally today, we’ve crashed back down because the markets don’t think Warsh is going to back down.

I think he’s going to wind up hiking in either October or December and the market somewhere is going to break… as a result, the FOMC will start ferociously cutting in 2027.

We are getting very close to wanting to buy back into the silver miners. Again.

So long-term, Sean’s not bearish on silver or silver miners. He’s simply trading the charts as he sees them. And it’s been working, so good for him.

Personally, I take more of a long-term strategy. And both methods can work. It all depends on your preferences. Are you more of a trader, or a long-term investor? Are you investing in taxable accounts, or 401ks and IRAs (tax shelters)?

Inflation Insurance

Jim Rickards’ target for silver is $200 an ounce. He says it could get there next year. I concur. But I don’t really care if it takes until 2028, or even later.

Silver is a huge part of my inflation insurance package. And I expect inflation to remain problematic for many years to come. That will drive demand from investors, which was lacking for much of the past decade.

With silver, of course, we also need to consider industrial demand. Solar panels, electronics, weapons systems, medical applications. All are going strong. Solar panels are an especially bright spot.

The current energy crisis is driving countries around the world to install massive solar panel installations, and each panel contains 4 to 20 grams of silver.

Take a look at the size of China’s largest solar project:

Source: Architecture and Design

It took a mountain of silver to build that. And solar demand isn’t slowing down anytime soon.

Intermission

In summary, silver mania isn’t over. This is the intermission. No investment goes straight up, nor should it.

But that doesn’t mean we have to try to trade it. You can, certainly. But personally, my goal is to hold investments I believe in for many years. It’s what works for me.

If timing the market works for you, that’s fantastic. Just make sure you consider tax implications, and have the experience necessary to trade in and out. Or have someone to guide you, like the top-notch experts we have here at Paradigm.

If you’ve been waiting to buy silver, now is a fine time. We might go a bit lower over the short-term, but my confidence over the next 2-5 years is extremely high.

Silver will hit $100 again, then $200, then $300, and beyond. And I’ll be along for the ride.