The Gold Rush of 2025: Where Do We Go from Here?
Happy September 30th. As Q3/2025 winds up, some things are glaringly apparent, and other things are not so clear. What will President Trump say today to those 800-plus generals and admirals that have been summoned to Quantico, Virginia? And what happens if (when) the federal government shuts down tonight? We’ll just have to wait and see…
Meanwhile, let’s discuss precious metals because, if you’ve followed the hard-asset focus of Paradigm Press on matters like gold, silver, platinum and mining plays, you’ve done quite well. Because we definitely caught the wave with the Gold Rush of 2025, so to speak.
Got gold? A gold nugget, courtesy Alaska Mint, Anchorage. BWK photo.
Across the world, central banks, businesses, and a whole lot of people are moving wealth into precious metals. So, where do things stand, both with physical holdings and investment angles? Is the golden trend still your golden friend? And where do we go from here? Let’s roll…
Dense Metals Defy Gravity
I suspect that you’ve noticed… The past nine months have been epic for precious metals. Despite their density, they defied gravity, so to speak.
Gold began the year at $2,645 per ounce at spot (i.e, pre dealer premium); it’s now over $3,850, a gain of over 47%.
Silver began the year at $29.60 per ounce at spot; it’s now over $47, a gain of about 58%.
Platinum began the year at $995 per ounce at spot; it’s now in the $1,600 range, a gain of 60%.
Clearly, if you own physical gold, silver and/or platinum, you are in tall cotton (to mix a plant versus mineral metaphor).
Your gains this year would be stand-alone great if it they were based on buying “just” in 2025. Then again, those metal prices were even lower in 2024, 2023, 2022, and… well, how far back do you want to go? Indeed, it’s fair to say that if you bought metal any time in the past 40 years, you’re ahead of the game. But whenever you took the plunge and bought into precious metals, you’ve done well. Reach around and pat yourself on the back!
All well and good, right? But look at things from another angle. That is, the metal itself hasn’t changed this year, last year, or ever. Gold is gold, silver is silver, and platinum is platinum. The elements were formed in the core of a supernova, many billions of years ago. And those nuclei and electrons have not altered over time.
When precious metal prices go up-up-up, it’s another way of stating that the value of the dollar has moved down-down-down. And in 2025 those relative moves have been more rapid than we’re used to seeing, all be it part of a monetary trend that goes back five decades, since President Nixon took the U.S. off of what passed for a gold standard in 1971. (Long story, and I won’t overstate the case here or now.)
Hold or Sell?
Now, we come to a bit of a quandary for some readers, at least based on emails and other feedback. After all those great gains, do you hold your metal or sell? Here are some thoughts:
Begin with the idea that “gold is money,” as banker J.P. Morgan once stated to a committee of Congress. “All else is credit.”
Always keep Morgan’s point in mind because, at root, if you own physical metal, you own elemental money in many senses of the word.
Or for another pertinent old saying (origin unknown, but I like it): “Gold is the money of kings, silver is the money of business, and debt is the currency of slaves.”
No, gold “doesn’t pay interest,” as critics are fond of saying. And you must store it, which requires planning, logistics, and attention to detail. And holding physical gold ties up cash, which is another way of saying that you are removing part of your wealth from the credit-side of the economy, and in essence de-risking.
Then again, we live in an era when the value of the dollar is falling steadily and at an alarming pace, a phenomenon reflected in the rising price for gold; see discussion above. So, the bottom lines is… interest/schminterest, if you own gold (or silver, platinum, etc.), you are currently beating the monetary game.
As for selling? In my view, the last thing you want to sell is physical metal; in other words, sell your stocks or other “paper” gold, etc. before unloading the actual shiny stuff. Because physical metal in your possession is the real McCoy, so to speak. It’s real money, as noted above, which means that if you own it and hold it, then it’s yours; it’s nobody else’s liability, as is the case with financial instruments.
Plus, whatever you sell, wherever and to whomever, you should expect to take a bit of a haircut on the transaction fee. A metal-buyer might offer “spot-minus,” meaning that the total sale proceeds will not be the dollar-value of your metal times the price. The dealer takes a cut (which is okay in many respects, but why should you sell out unless you absolutely need quick cash?).
And then there’s the wonderful element of privacy to gold, etc. That is, nobody really knows if you own metal or where you store it; not unless you tell them. And you should only tell the most trusted players in your life, such as close family or financial advisers. Indeed – and frankly – owning physical metal ought to be a matter of great discretion.
Sure, some people brag about their stock market gains. Perhaps they feel a need or inner desire to puff about good fortune. But really… you should never talk about your physical metal.
Bottom line: if you absolutely need cash and there’s nothing else available, then sell some metal. Otherwise, sell the paper. And along those lines, let’s now discuss metal miners and royalty plays, and what has happened so far in 2025.
Royalty Plays & Miners
With the increase in prices for precious metals this year, royalty plays are up, many of them quite handsomely. The core element of the royalty business model is to invest in projects at various stages, usually early or during development. Then the royalty owners leave operational costs and risks to the mining companies but collect a return in the form of the value of metal production, if not actual metal itself out of the mine. (I could make a long article here; but these are the basics.)
In essence, with fast-rising prices for gold-silver-platinum, the increase of cash flow benefits the bottom line for both miners and royalty plays. Consider some names that have done quite well:
Franco Nevada Corp. (FNV), from $125 per share at the beginning of 2025 to the current $225.
Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD), from $134 at the start of 2025 to the current $198.
Osisko Royalties (OR), from $18 in January to over $39 just now.
Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM), from $56 at the beginning of 2025 to $110.
I could go on, but you get the idea. And as always, the caveat is that there’s no guarantee that these kinds of upward moves will continue. Then again, if you believe that prices for gold, silver and other precious metals will continue to move upwards, it stands to reason that royalty plays will continue to benefit from increased cash flow and profitability.
And again, the only thing that would keep precious metal prices from continuing upwards would be some sort of global-scale “recovery” in faith in the dollar; for example, if the U.S. government got its act together and stopped with deficit spending, etc. Fat chance, right?
Now, let’s look at some actual miners, companies that move rock and process minerals into saleable metal. And obviously, higher metal prices have benefitted these plays across the sector; that is, big names, intermediate plays and many smaller, “junior” plays.
Beneficiaries include actual producers, of course, companies that mine rock and then deliver ores, mineral concentrates, and refined metals.
The biggest names are Barrick Mining (B), which moved from $14 to $33 so far this year, and Newmont Mining (NEM), which has moved from $38 to $84 over the past nine months. These companies are Wall Street favorites in the sense that when many funds are underweight in gold miners, they go first to B and NEM.
But there are more than a few great intermediate players, too. Such as Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), which has moved from $83 to $166 this year. Or Kinross Gold (KGC) which moved from $9.50 in January to over $24 just now. And I’ll add a smaller operation that has greatly benefitted Kinross up in Alaska, Contango Ore (CTG), which ships high grade material to Kinross for processing at a plant just outside of Fairbanks; CTGO has moved from $10.50 in January to over $24 now.
On the platinum side, this year the clear breakout was Sibanye-Stillwater, Ltd. (SBSW), which operates in Montana and South Africa. The share price was an anemic $3.25 in January, and it’s over $11 now.
And we’ve also seen great moves in a slew of developers, meaning companies with strong resource numbers, but which are still building out their projects into working mines. Here are a few examples:
Seabridge Gold (SA), which moved from $11 in January to over $23 recently, and holds a world-class set of copper-gold claims and resources in northern Canada.
Osisko Development Corp. (ODV), which moved from $1.40 in January to $3.40 recently, and is redeveloping a classic, old gold mining district in British Columbia, as well as other projects in other locales.
McEwen, Inc. (MUX), which has moved this year from $8 in January to over $16 recently, based on gold production in Canada and ownership in a massive copper-gold play in Argentina.
Wrap-Up
Again, it’s been a great year for precious metal prices, which is another way of saying that the value of the dollar is declining – a fact of life that’s due to government spending and monetary policy and far beyond our control. So, we ride the golden wave, or silver, platinum, etc. It’s that Gold Rush of 2025, so to speak, which I mentioned earlier.
Another way to look at things is that hard assets are becoming more and more monetized, in the sense that they are “real” products and not just electronic 1s and 0s like most currencies. You can’t fake real metal, and that seems to be a consensus to which much of the world is headed.
Right now, we’re in an era when gold-silver-platinum are not just a means to preserve wealth over time, but their gains clearly, measurable outrun inflation and the general decline in value of the dollar. Whether it’s physical metal, or buying shares in royalty plays or miners, there’s upside to the metal sector, and that’s just the precious metal side; other metals all have their own story to tell, from antimony and copper to uranium and zinc.
If you’ve been involved with precious metals, then good for you and I hope that Paradigm Press has been of assistance. If you’ve still not boarded the proverbial gold-train, my view is that it’s not too late because we have more open track ahead. My caution is that in the event of a major market move downwards, everything will pull back, including physical gold, silver, etc., and the mining plays. But that will also be the time to dive in and go bargain hunting.
I’ll end here. That’s all for now.
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