Is Gold Now a Speculative Play Instead of a Safe Haven?
Today The Reformed Broker predicts that — in the event of a market collapse — the financial flight to safety will be sucking hot money out of gold-related assets and into the safety of the US dollar.
As its post describes:
“Gold is no longer any kind of ‘Safe Haven’. Those days ended when the 38th gold ETF came public and the 900th commercial for gold coins ran on Fox News during the Glenn Beck Paranoid Lunatics Anonymous Hour.
“Don’t get it twisted – gold is now the quintessential risk trade, moving in tandem with risk appetites and the pursuit of momentum by investors around the world.
“Don’t believe me? How about this…during Thanksgiving week, when half of the country’s traders were away from their screens, you got your proof:
“A camel sneezed in Dubai and the immediate reaction was a flight – TO THE US DOLLAR. Gold was smacked down immediately, albeit briefly, as the HOT MONEY came flying out of it right alongside crude oil, tech stocks and junk bonds.
“For that brief moment when the financial world teetered on the edge of a possible panic, the only green on the screen was in the greenback.”
Gold’s Dubai-related downturn may be overly emphasized for effect. Also, gold fundamentals seem in place to drive its value much higher in the long run. That said, The Reformed Broker’s hypothesis is interesting enough to demand consideration for the short run.
Where do you see gold prices heading in the event of a near-term panic? How would you expect the US dollar to perform?