US-Iranian saber-rattling or impending shoot-out? In his usual, candid manner, contrarian investor Doug Casey talks about why he believes it’s serious this time… why the US is the greatest threat to peace today… why Iran might move towards a gold standard… and what smart investors should do.
Louis James: Doug, I’ve heard you say you think the US is setting Iran up to be the next fall guy in the wag-the-dog show — do you think it could really come to open warfare?
Doug Casey: Yes, I do. It could just be saber rattling during an election year, but Western powers have been provoking Iran for years now — two decades, really. I just saw another report proclaiming that Iran is likely to attack the US, which is about as absurd as the allegations Bush made about Iraq bombing the US, when he fomented that invasion. It’s starting to look rather serious at this point, so I do think the odds favor actual fighting in the not-too-distant future.
L: Could they really be so stupid?
Doug: You know the answer to that one. We’re dealing with criminal personalities on both sides, and criminals are basically very stupid — meaning they have an unwitting tendency to self-destruction. One thing to remember is that most of those in power in the West still believe the old economic fallacy that war is good for the economy.
L: The old broken-window fallacy. Paraphrasing Arlo Guthrie, it’s hard to believe anyone could get away with making a mistake that dumb for that long.
Doug: People like those in power still suffer the delusion that it was World War II that ended the Great Depression for the US. Actually, it was only after the end of the war that the depression ended, in 1946. In his book World Economic Development: 1979 and Beyond, Herman Kahn documented long-term growth throughout the 20th century. Between 1914 to 1946 — a very tough time, with WWI, the Great Depression, and WWII — the world economy still grew at something like 1.8%. I believe real growth would have been several times as great, were it not for the state and its products. But people still believe that spending money on things that explode and kill and destroy is somehow good for the economy.
L: I suppose they think it’s okay if it creates jobs here and destroys lives and livelihoods “over there.” But aside from the fact that it’s not safe to assume today’s enemies are not capable of bringing the battle onto US soil, it still ignores the fact that you’re spending money on stuff that gets destroyed — like broken windows — and that impoverishes us all. Worse, the cost is not just economic.
Doug: That’s right. This coming war with Iran has the potential to turn into something resembling WWIII, with enormous consequences.
Now, it’s hard to speak with any certainty on such matters, because most of what we have to go on are press reports. Governments keep most really critical facts on their doings to themselves, and what you read in the press is as likely as not just a warmed-over government press release — in other words, propaganda. Meaningless, if not actively deceptive. It is correctly said that in war, truth is the first casualty.
L: But we do have the Internet these days, with indie reporters offering coverage ignored by the talking heads in the mainstream media.
Doug: True; it doesn’t keep the chattering classes honest, but it does provide some diversity of spin, from which we can try to infer what’s really going on. And from all the various sources — mainstream and alternative, Western and from within the Muslim world — I have to say that it appears to me that the Iranians are not actually developing nuclear weapons.
L: Then why do they act in such aggressive and bombastic ways?
Doug: Western powers are pushing them around, telling them what they can and cannot do, and treating them like children or mental incompetents with no right of self-determination. How else would you expect them to react? They may have a collectivist theocratic regime, but it’s also a proud and ancient culture.
Now, as you know, I don’t think there should be any countries at all — not in the sense of the modern nation-state, and I’m certainly no fan of the Tehran regime, but Iran is a sovereign state. The Iranians resent people from other countries assuming the right to tell them what they can and cannot do with their uranium enrichment program, just as people in the US would if Iranians told them what to do with… well, anything.
L: Do you have specific data to substantiate your view that Iran is not focused on creating nuclear weapons?
Doug: I was just reading about an official report that says that Iran is still not able to enrich uranium to the level needed to make nuclear weapons.
Uranium occurs in two isotopes with half-lives long enough to make it possible to find reasonable amounts of them in the earth’s crust: U235 and U238. Most of it is U238 — 99.3% — but it’s the U235 that’s fissile, meaning, it’s the one you want for making nuclear reactors and weapons. So you have to enrich your uranium — to about 20%-30% U235 to make reactor fuel and 90% or better to make weapons.
L: That’s why the Russians are able to sell “downblended” uranium from decommissioned nuclear weapons for use as reactor fuel. So, you’re saying the reports indicate that Iran is not capable of enriching uranium beyond the level needed for reactors?
Doug: Yes. But again, I have to stress that reliable information is very hard to come by. Remember when the US accused Iraq of having a program to develop so-called weapons of mass destruction? Apart from the fact that, except for nuclear weapons, that term is a complete misnomer, they had no such thing. It was either lousy intelligence or outright fabrication — and I suspect the latter. So how can we trust what they tell us today? Only a fool would be so naïve.
Doug: In any event, why shouldn’t Iran have nuclear weapons? I wish none of these countries had them, but they do. No one stopped China, no one stopped North Korea, Pakistan, Israel, India, France, nor any of the others in the disreputable club that have them.
L: Wasn’t it too late to intervene by the time those countries announced their nuclear capabilities?
Doug: I don’t think so. Israel was friendly, so Western powers looked the other way. North Korea was too rabid, so they were left alone. The other countries are too big. The cat’s out of the bag at this point; any country can develop nuclear weapons, if it really wants to. But it’s easier and cheaper to bribe a general — or maybe just a supply sergeant — in India, Pakistan, or Russia to get what you want.
Moreover, with the US on the rampage, prosecuting its counterproductive and unwinnable War on Terror, a lot of governments, especially ones unpopular in the West, have got to be thinking about acquiring nuclear capabilities. If Saddam had actually had nukes, the US would have left him alone, just as they’ve left the Kims to rot in the workers’ paradise they’ve made out of North Korea. It makes sense for a country stricken from the US’s official “nice” list and moved over to the “naughty” category to have some nukes. Everyone needs and wants a slingshot to keep the bully of the block at bay.
If you oppose nuclear proliferation, your first target should be US foreign policy, which is the biggest impetus behind the scramble to arms.
L: What about the argument that Iran would use nuclear weapons on Israel, if it had them?
Doug: That’s ridiculous. It’s true that just one or two nukes would turn most of Israel to glass, but it’s a matter of mutually assured destruction (MAD), just as the détente between the US and USSR was. Israel is reported to have about 200 nuclear weapons, and the Iranians know it. Even if they launched a successful first strike against Israel, they would get wiped off the face of the earth in response. The regime in Iran is repressive and borderline lunatic, but they aren’t that stupid. No way are they going to attack Israel with nukes. They not only cannot, but should not, be singled out for exclusion from the nuclear club.
L: But they’re part of the axis of evil, don’t you know?
Doug: Speaking of evil, it’s evil to initiate the use of force or fraud. If Iran enriches uranium or even builds tools for war, that’s not evil per se. But using force to stop them from doing something that is not in itself wrong is wrong, and that would make Iran’s attackers the axis of evil.
In my mind, the US is the biggest threat to peace in the world today. I can easily imagine those in power in the US starting a war over any silly pretext, real or imagined. It could easily happen by accident at this point. Things go wrong. Maybe some young hotheads in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard decide to take a boat out and attack a US frigate — launch a few RPGs at it before they’re blown out of the water. Then the US feels it needs to mete out some punishment and launches a strike against the base the boat came from — which would be attacking the Iranian mainland — and the thing spins completely out of control. Could happen at the drop of a hat. Maybe the commander of a US ship has a streak of General Jack D. Ripper from Kubrick’s Dr. Strangelove in him. Maybe the Russians or the Chinese — who are aiding the Iranians — mount a false-flag incident, because they want to see the US get involved in another tar baby.
L: So… another case of not just doing the wrong thing, but the exact opposite of the right thing, with economic, political, and ultimately physical world consequences.
Doug: That’s right. Just look at what they’re doing now, trying to isolate Iran from the world with an embargo. That could be seen as an act of war.
L: Well, wait a minute. A blockade is regarded as an act of war, but if Western countries decide to harm their own economies by not trading with Iran, that’s unfriendly, but not force or fraud.
Doug: Well, it would be forcing citizens in those Western countries to pay higher prices for things, denying them the choice of buying oil from Iran if they wanted to. But I agree; that’s more a matter of criminal tyranny and stupidity than an act of war. Still it sure is prodding Iran, throwing rocks at the hornets’ nest, as the US did with Japan before WWII. The Japanese basically have no domestic oil production and were getting their oil from the US and the Dutch East Indies. The US cut off both supplies, backing them into a corner, leaving them little choice but an aggressive response.
At any rate, I think all of this could backfire on the US. Since the Iranians apparently can’t clear deposits through New York, where international dollar trades clear, they’ve made a very commonsense move to cut the US out of the middle and sell their oil directly to India, without using dollars. I think other countries will follow — and then what? Iran isn’t going to want bushels and bushels of rupiah or yen or whatever. I think the odds favor them turning to gold. It’s said that’s one of the means of payment the Indians will be using.
Gold is the logical choice and the next step in the demise of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency. There’s a lot of demand for the dollar to buy and sell oil. If countries stop using it, demand for the dollar would fall, at the very time the US is greatly increasing the supply of dollars. The day is coming when trillions of dollars outside the US will only be spendable inside the US. At that point it’s game over for the dollar.
L: You’ve talked about the world going back onto a gold standard before. What do you say to the people who say that gold is a barbaric relic from the past that doesn’t work in a modern economy — they can’t go around with pockets full of doubloons to buy cars or chests full of treasure to buy houses…
Doug: Such people are not thinking rationally and are economically ignorant. As always, we should start with a definition: what is money? The short answer is that it’s a store of wealth and medium of exchange. For reasons we’ve discussed and as Aristotle outlined over 2,000 years ago, gold is simply the best form of money ever adopted. And in our modern world, you don’t have to physically cart the stuff around. You can, but you can also transfer ownership of physical gold electronically, through services like GoldMoney.com.
L: Note: We do endorse GoldMoney.com as a convenient and reliable way to own, trade, and transfer gold, but readers should be advised that Doug is an investor in it.
Doug: Right. I like to put my money where my mouth is.
L: Okay, so you see this trend being bullish for gold, clear enough. But most of the gold ever produced in the world still exists in purified form in various vaults around the planet. Gold doesn’t get used up like silver does, so there’s plenty of supply. So, would the physical need for gold as money really impact the price of gold and related equities, or would that be more a function of governments further debasing their currencies?
Doug: Well, it’s estimated that there are some six billion ounces of refined gold in human possession around the world, or, somewhat less than one ounce per person. Global gold production is said to be about 80 million ounces a year, or about a 1.3% annual increase in the supply of gold. That would be the steady, “natural” rate of inflation if we were on a gold standard. The amount of various currency units in the world is increasing at a much, much faster pace than 1.3%. Nobody really knows, not even the Fed, but depending on how you define the money supply, it would take $10,000 to $50,000 — or more — per ounce to back all of the dollars in existence with gold. Whatever the correct number is, I expect gold’s price in dollars to increase dramatically as the world moves closer to and eventually adopts a gold standard.
L: So, any investment implications beyond the obvious? Buy gold and silver for prudence and protection, buy gold stocks for speculative leverage?
Doug: That’s the basic recipe. And diversify your holdings internationally. You can never tell when the government of your home country will have a psychotic break.
L: What do you say to the people afraid that in a world so traumatized as to go back onto a gold standard, the risk of owning any paper asset, including gold stocks, would be too high? No one will trade gold stocks for a can of dog food in a Mad Max world…
Doug: That’s a valid concern. You can’t eat paper, and even owning shares in a gold mine may not be of much use in a real economic cataclysm — the US government shut down gold mining during WWII as a nonessential industry. It could happen again. But that’s why, as you said, we own gold for prudence, and the stocks are strictly speculative vehicles.
But let’s have some perspective. The security of your stock portfolio may become the least of your concerns if the US starts a war with Iran that touches off WWIII. If that happens, the US government and population will both turn hysterical, and the whole country will be locked down like a prison. What was once America will become even more of a police state than it is now. Who knows where that would end?
So, one of the most intelligent things you can do is as I’ve been saying for years: diversify your assets and your physical presence internationally. Having some place you like to spend time off the beaten track, where you can ride the storm out, should be top priority for everyone who can afford it. Preparing for the worst at home should be top priority for those who can’t.
L: Would you care to put odds on open war between the US and Iran?
Doug: I’d say it’s highly probable within the next two to four years — say, between 50% and 75% — that an actual shooting war will break out.
L: Not much time to prepare. I sure hope all our readers are doing what they can.
Doug: Me too.
L: Right then. Thanks for your thoughts and guidance, Doug.
Doug: You’re welcome. We’ll talk again soon.
Doug Casey and Louis Jamesfor The Daily Reckoning
Doug Casey of Casey Research is the author of the best sellers Strategic Investing, Crisis Investing, Crisis Investing for the Rest of the 90's, and most recently, Totally Incorrect. He has lived in seven countries and visited over 100 more. He has appeared on scores of major radio and TV shows and remains an active speculator in the stock, bond, commodity, and real estate markets around the world. In his spare time, Doug engages in competitive shooting and plays polo.
If the 1% in the United States want war, you may as well get ready. The 1% always get what they want.
Yes and also the 1% FORCED Iranians to sing Death to America for 30 years now…
Why ppl don’t dream AFTER spending some real time in Iran and see with their own eyes what a regime like this really is ??
Zbigniew Brzezinski apparently incited Saddam Hussein to attack Iran in 1980.
Criminal complaint affidavit filed against Brzezinski in New Mexico federal 97cv266 not appreciated by feds.
Google ‘ryan crocker j orlin grabbe’ for details on how we’re trying to recover $22,036 stolen from our Sandia Laboratory Federal Credit Union retirement-protected savings account.
Pingback: Boehner says US needs to do more to stop Iran – Boston.com – IranianRadio.ca
“The regime in Iran is repressive and borderline lunatic, but they aren’t that stupid.”
no. but they may very well be that jihadist. deserved or not they have a reputation of being a nation of suicide bombers who even if faced with certain retaliation might very well just say “insh’allah!” and press the button anyway.
that doesn’t mean that those who wish to attack them have motivations that are any better. but still this must be answered.
oddly iran has only 24 oil refineries that produce gasoline. 24 cruise missiles could shut down the entire nation for a good while. that anyone seeks any kind of protracted warfare with them says a great deal.
The theocracy has been in power there for over 30 years, and the only war they’ve been involved in was when Saddam tried to profit from their country’s instability in the wake of the revolution.
Iran also had a proxy involvement in Lebanon–but that doesn’t really count, since almost every country on the entire planet had some sort of involvement in Lebanon.
Overall, despite the rhetoric, I just don’t see much real reason to think the guys running Iran are more aggressive than anyone else.
It would be so easy for the US to simply spray Botox on Iran’s Largest cities and get the matter over with. Unfortunately, this would not produce a need for US defense contractors to manufacture tons of replacement weapons and munitions used in a conventional conflict. It would, however, eradicate about 98 percent or more of the mammalian population in the targeted areas–and without any radioactive fallout. Simply stated it’s the quickest, least expensive, and most effective method available. No Boom, but lots of Death. And in a matter of weeks the entire area could be repopulated by peoples from other areas of our extremely overpopulated planet. Provided they didn’t mind cleaning up all the millions of dead disease vectors now littering their new homeland. And 3M would make a ton selling them face masks! It’s Win Win if you ask me…
So the US provoked the poor Japanese to attack Pearl Harbor? Not buying it! I’m not buying the line that the US is the greatest threat to peace in the world. I’m not buying the virtues of a nuclear armed Iran. I’m not buying the inevitability of a shooting war over there AND I’m not buying gold! I’ve never seen leftist America-hating hogwash used to sell a product before. Interesting spin…a little light on common sense.
Well beam-me-up Scottie! Iv’e been livin in my parents bsmt 2 long. *S* PS right on Casey. I’d hate 2c it come down 2 that,cuz how civil is war any way???
The analogy of Japan being provoked is off base. The “embargo” against Japan was after Japan raped Nanking, Manchuria and Korea.
If only the eutopian world with which some people live were reality, but alas i must get back to working for a living and paying everyone else’s “fair share” of taxes.
Sooner the better!
I pray for all my brothers across the world, and ask god to help us avoid war.
Why must there be disaster in order for us to come together? Division is our greatest fault and it will be the undoing of the greatest of nations.
I am tired of there being so much hatred. It doesn’t matter what religion you live by or if you believe at all, you only have to look around you to realize that the end for us is very near. This much hate and animosity can not go on.
We are the voice and backbone of this great nation/s and it is time we let our voices be heard. Our governments must serve the people NOT DICTATE TO US HOW WE MUST LIVE. And we often wonder why so many hate the U.S it is not us who they hate it is the way’s of our government.
This year when the alignment of our planets cause’s worldwide catastrophe and devastation the one beautiful thing will be that we will all finally come together and it will not matter what nation you are from… you will extend your arms out and help one another.
OUT OF DEATH AND DISTRUCTION THERE WILL BE RESURRECTION OF LIFE?
It is a mistake to believe if Iran got nukes they wouldn’t use them out of a desire for self preservation. Their dogma calls for martyrdom…
Doug Casey…Learn how to write a proper sentence if you want people to take you seriously………..
Thanks for the morning chuckle
the us can not siurvive without a war some place ! why not sell the war goods to those clowns and let them kill each other.after that we step in and take over without firing a shot
what ever happened to the air craft carrier that we built and sold to the iranian gov when ths sha was i charge?
Make no istake Israel will attack Iran between now and election day. The costs will be enormous because the US will be involved. As we speak we are already have US troops in Israel and the Navy. I would say within 3 months. It will be a quick war because of our allies. We reaally need to be concerned about the Russian/Chinese because they will be involved. WW!!!…maybe. We really have to be careful as to whom is elected as President because that person will have to ake numerous decisions that will effect our country for a long time to come. Nuclear it depends on Iran. Remember Israel has the nuclear weapon and Russia and China know it.
Under Muslim law to go and see Allah one must draw blood. So can anuclear weapon take this away; absolutely. Iran wants blood just like The Iranian and Iraqai war except one thing Sadamn did not play by Muslim law and used Chemicals that is why all the Middle East countries hated him. He did not go by Allah. He did not go to the Allah world because of what he did when he was executed.
The Daily-Wreck-oning. This article is a wasted read. I recommend TV Guide. Although Iran talks big, they need the bomb for self-preservation as they realize their own perceived vulnerability without it. I don’t blame them for trying, but I don’t blame others for stopping it. Nuclear material produced in the Middle East (with the inherent instability present) is a global threat. You are naive if you believe otherwise….
Of course it’s inevitable but not while our Muslim President is in office
If america doesn’t knock it off then yes there will be war with iran, and syria, and pakistan and maybe north korea and russia (if the us doesn’t knock it off with this missle shield bs) As an american I am more than comfortable saying my country needs to be knocked off its high horse and be forced to start working with other countries instead of always putting our interests first. War is not a solution to the problems facing the middle east and the sooner america learns that, the better american-middle eastern relations can get.
I don’t think so, Doug. I think this will be another N. Korea-like permanent stand-off.
Part of the reason for that is most of the nuclear infrastructure in Iran is located either close to population centers or in mountain caverns.
Israel has only 24 Strike Eagle aircraft capable of striking the caverns. They would doubtless need multiple sorties per aircraft to degenerate the additional protective layers of reinforced concrete that Iran has installed. I believe that Iranian air defenses are sufficient to deplete and discourage this small force. Granted, the Israelis have many F-16 aircraft – and they have configured them for extended range operations. However, they simply can’t carry the required ordinance.
So, it would fall to the US to supplement an Israeli attact. Politically, this wouldn’t be acceptable within the forseeable future. The population at large is simply not familiar enough with the details of this situation – which does not present a clear and present danger to the US. Starting a war would be political suicide for a US President in the current environment. Hence Mr. Obama’s refusal to rattle sabers. The US Navy will fulfill its mission of keeping the Persian Gulf open for sea traffic. Iran will not interfere with that because it would result in the destruction of Iran’s military forces and an almost inevitable population-led regime change. Just my $0.02-worth.
“Is a US-Iran War Inevitable?”
If the Israeli Jews and their fumdamentalist Christian and Jewish supporters have their way we will definitely be involved in any war. BUT, if we were smart, and truely neutral, we should stay out.
A much easier path would have been for the Israeli’s to give up some land and make peace with the Palestinians. Then there would be NO outside support for Iran.
You notice how he makes his point that War is the market for Right-wing corporate profiteers? Then he hammers on his nail that American war machine instability has created the market for gold? Then he advocates the world-gold-standard-economy.
He only slightly mentions thay HE is a profiteer of gold. Ironic, but correct me if I am wrong. Does this not make him a profiteer of war also? If you use his reasoning for investing in his company at least – by consumer proxy f course.
Typical. Twist historical and current facts for your own agenda. We all do it, but most us admit to it. Also, I find his blatant out right lie in regards to Japan’s reasoning as a downright insult to the millions that suffered at the blades of their swords and tips of their bullets. Really Doug? I was just waiting for his twist on how Germany only murdered Jews because the U.S. backed England. You are truly a sick and twisted money hungry fool Doug. The fact a reputable news agency even acknowledged you is insulting and deserves such an apology.
Do you people really think like this? Seriously?
first of all, a short history lesson. It was, for sure, WWII that cured the great depression. Not because of the spending on things that go boom, you idiot, but because, almost overnight, you had a million jobs open, and not enough workers to fill them, because the workers were all killing each other in europe and northern africa. So, wages rose, putting more money into the economy, people started spending, and more products were needed. This, in turn, opened more jobs – someone needed to make those newly demanded products – and wages rose again.
As for the US and the west “provoking” Iran…dude…..wow. The more you open your mouth (or, in this case, exercise your free speech with your computer), the more foolsish you look. Stop. The people hate us, fund terrorists, declare that they will stop at nothing short of the destruction of Israel (and pursue weapons non-stop with which to make that goal a reality), and WE are provoking THEM?
Pull your head out of your arse and start living in the world as it really is, and not as you would have it be in your pointy head college books.
If a war with Iran does happen, lets all hope it doesnt start until Obummer is gone. I would like to win a war for a change without the Dems causing us to lose a war right after they start one.
Supporting our troops would be a great start; but that will never happen under Obummer!
Iran is the devil on Earth,….and yet you quote Arlo Guthrie?!
this article stinks and so must you to have such an equal impression of the great Country of America who intervenes only when savages as the beasts there kill/mame their own people then attack our troops trying o spread the people’s will around the World. To compare us wth tyannical rants of destoying 2 sovereign countries just because they want a global Islam is ludicroous….Idiot, do your self a favor and stop commenting on dire subjects you are confused on
Let us not forget that the reason for the oil embargo against the poor mistreated Japanese was their genocidal invasion of Manchuria.
Doug Casey is a Paulbot who went to Georgetown with Bill Clinton. He lives in Vermont. He may be smart, but he’s dead wrong on Iran; why do we have to make allowances for Iranian-style diplomacy? They’ve been funding Hezbollah for decades and they’ve been supporting the insurgency in Iraq against the US and the democratically elected Iraqi government. Of course, Doug probably feels they are justified in this as in their atomic weapons program because the USA is the Great Satan.
Check out this excellent and thought-provoking article:
A Thought Experiment on Iran: Why not try diplomacy?
The country of Iran is an ancient culture?!! NO, Persia is an ancient culture, the Islamic Republic is a 30-year-old fanatical theocracy that enslaves and executes their own people, and therefore deserve to be treated as a dysfunctional entity.
The big error in this article is the claim that “Iranians are not capable of enriching uranium” to the level necessary for a bomb. This statement is patently false since there is zero evidence that the Iranians have any intentions of building nuclear bombs.
This article was mildly interesting until Doug started applying the “rational actor model” to the ruling mullahs in Tehran. Foreign policy calculations and constructs like MAD break down when one side doesn’t care how much damage they take in an exchange since they believe it will bring about the coming of the 12th imam. Doug Casey makes a very “undergraduate” level mistake…he superimposes a western value set on the mullahs that would result in the worst foreign policy miscalculation since Dean Acheson’s “Perimeter Speech” fomented the Korean War…bottom line…if Iran gets nukes, they will use them.
The argument that Iran’s stockpiling of nuclear weapons is not immoral, is stupid.
If Iran’s actions — the surpression of the liberty of its citizens, the export and support of terrorists globally, especially to their near abroad, their willingness to annihilate enemies, who are declared as such for illegitimate reasons — are immoral, then so is every step they take to safeguard those actions.
By analogy, it is not only immoral to rape. It is also immoral to buy the knife you intend to use, to plan your attack, to figure out an escape, to purposefully fantasize about each moment. If a man was *well known* to be a rapist, it would be fully reasonable for non-rapists in the area to attempt to prevent his securing a butcher’s knife.
And in case I wasn’t clear, the reason Iran desires those nukes IS in fact to safeguard those actions. They know full well that if they renounced the evil they inflict upon their citizens, accepted Israel’s rights to exist, defunded Hamas and Hezbollah, etc, they would be accepted into the world community and protected. It is ONLY because they intend to continue with their immoral activity that they need a nuclear weapon to defend themselves.
Sounds like Doug is an idiot. We should have taken out Iran when Iraq was beaten and the world wouldn’t have this problem today.You can NOT reason with terroist countries the only thing they understand is violence.
Barak Husein Obama has said over and over that he is all for an Iran with Nuclear Power, but is opposed to a Nuclear Weapons Program in Iran. In Contrast Mitt Romney opposes Iran having any Nuclear anything because “It will bring a whole new level of unstability to the region” I’m voting for Romney to keep Isreal and the U.S.A. Safer. If you have these same interests at heart please join with sensability. Some people think of akmadinijad with a lot of pitty. Oh that poor guy, he’s just doing the best he can with the country he has. But I don’t buy it at all. Why does he start his speaches with “Death to Isreal, Death to America” ? Because he hates us and wants to destroy us. If we don’t push back he will win.
Yup. And Soetoro and his butt buddies will have a war to call their very own, while they keep bashing Bush over his.
My feeling is that Isreal will attack Iran first. This will follow with Iran responding in kind. Additionally, Iran will then block the Straight of Hormuz, which will draw American involvment. Then, I feel that Russia and Gulf states will become involved. Unfortunately, I feel that this will be the beginning of World War III. Need I say more? God help us all!
Doug – what a load of B&ll$h!t. All this fear mongering is a THINLY guised attempt to promote a product that you have invested in (gold exchange).
Here is how this reader is going to “prepare”: leaving this website and never coming back…
This man and his ilk should not have the right to live in the US. If we are the greatest threat to peace please move to Iran. I am sure they will buy your BS and accept you wholeheartedly.
Its my opinion that If Iran and Israel want to smack each other around everyone should cut off all aid/weapons etc. to each side and let them settle their crap on their own. Just like two kids on the schoolyard. The world can stand in a big circle and watch them pummel each other until one gives up.
Its a stupid religious argument that doesn’t have a winner. It hasn’t for thousands of years and it wont now. [b][i]Im tired of giving everyone tons of goddamn aid for nothing.[/b][/i] we dont get a damn thing from Israel except a headache.
Leave them all alone I say, they’ll still have to sell their oil either way.
Post WWII s golden opportunity was lost because of Stalin, a paranoid killer with nuclear weapons. Positive regime change, ie,the thankfully peaceful dissolution of the USSR, has provided another opportunity to channel human energy and the wealth of nations for peace and prosperity. Vladimir Putins lies and legal opinions notwithstanding, regime change has always been necessary as long as the really evil regimes are targeted. the world would be better off with a few select regime changes right now. Irans president has clearly articulated the intent to recapture an empire of antiquity. He is telling us that he is no good. Irans denial of the known truth of recent history, its denial of intent to acquire nuclear weapons, along with all the other belligerant behavior and declarations, a deceitful regime that has a bad agenda conducting whatever violent acts that it thinks it can get away with is already a significant danger. Bad enough that we must perpetually ransom peace from a North Korea. Bad enough that billions remain deprived and progress thwarted by the spectre of nuclear confrontation between Pakistan and India. We certainly have problems that now seem far from solution. Iran is a big problem that the international community is trying to resolve peacefully and in good faith. Iran will not be honest. We have begun to eliminate our nuclear weapon stockpile and cannot permit the multiplication of wasted resources with nuclear proliferation spread to such a terrible regime moving in precisely the opposite direction bent upon getting even for perceived past injustices.
I find it stunning that anyone would think the way this guy does. No understanding at all that a nuclear Iran could potentially be crazy enough to actually attack the US. This guy is an idiot.
It is not financially, fiscally, or militarily strategic right not for the USA to engage in a War with Iran. Cooler heads must prevail with sanctions. This country is just recouperating from the most disastrous economic slump since the Depression all brought on by tax cuts and two major unpaid for wars.
War? The US vs China would be a war. The US vs Iran would akin to child abuse, or a rape. It would be like Tyson fighting Webster.
Don’t believe me, ask Saddam how long it took us to destroy his army. How long it took us to drive his toy soldiers into civies and into hiding.
we should stop Iran from getting a
nucler bomb , because it will be a
catastrophe in the all world ,the
president of Iran is mad men
even the Russians have to worrie
about getting a nucler bomb
also the saudis should worrie
another world is if you want peace
you have to change this mad men at once .
Casey is just another Reaganite with a mouth who does not understand that the Grand Ayatolla of the suicide bomber is about to get nuclear weapons technology.When dealing with China, Russia,N Korea,Possibly even Pakistan’s leadership these are people who are pragmatic and want to live.Iran baiting Israel with threats of an Atomic suicide bomb attack does not sound like people who want to live.Not the kind of Russian roulette I would want to play.Regime change in Iran is needed.If the USA walks away, When they top 911, which they will. I hope it is by your house.At least they wont have a nuclear bomb to do it with.
Read the history books on the muslims, the muslims overran europe for 200 hundred years, yes converting by the sword, before the 1st crusade was called. Point in fact there is no mmuslim country where christians aand jews can worship openly, they’re persecuted openly. Look at that christian pastor in Iran, stop blaming the us for all the worlds ills!I know you’re making a living by having this site, but someday when our enemies come looking for us you’ll be looking for the us!
This guy is an investment person, does that qualify him as a war expert? I don’t think so. He is an author and he makes money by being controversial.
who started nuclear developing arms in first place since the time when its discover? Do any one thought of this fact? Does any Muslim/Arab countries discovered these devil in first place? United state and soviet union built Thousands of Nuclear weapon during cold war. Think if theses two countries spent all resources helping out poor countries providing trillions dollars in their development,in every sector of advancement rather than spending all wealth or Their resources building These devil weapon to show the world who is mighty ? I love my united state. There is no country in earth like united state. But fact is beating drums of war behalf of, and in favor of another country showing Military might to far less militarily technologically back ward country is not way to show our true color of independence and our constitution. our man and woman in uniforms in harms way since numbers of years .we wants to get out from and we should think to bring them home from harm way. Beating drums of war will going to put them in harms way. Problem is we started Nuclear Development, Numbers of countries have them , including Israel. All Muslim and Arab countries surrounding state of Israel is fearing of Israel more than 200 nuclear warhead . By fearing this fact eventually one of those country will develop. Lets say we set back Iran Like we setting back Iraq Militarily spending billions even trillions of Tax Payers Money and shading christian s and Muslim s / Arab Blood to secure interest of Israel will not going to work ,rather than after few years another middle eastern country will require nuclear weapon. Do you think we going to after one after another country spending billions and trillions tax payers money? The solution to this problem is diplomacy To end one sided favor by ignoring core issue of another side. Above all Israel has to come forward,removing fear from neighboring countries about his nuclear arsenal and idea of dominating those countries in middle east by giving them their occupied land . Just look back history, by asking question to your self. Does middle east had any problems before 1948? Since Creation of Israel in Arab Occupied land started all problems.
Let them have their nuke so they can blow one another up and be done with it.
There will be no war between the U.S. and Iran because I guarantee you that Iran has been told by the U.S. in no uncertain terms that if they do anything to incite a war, they’ll be bombed back to the stone age. Leaders in Iran are talking as if war with the U.S. is what they want, which impresses their people and helps keep them in power. My advice is don’t believe for a minute that they actually want a war to happen because they know without question what the end result would be.
I can’t believe the liberal crap I’m reading. The Daily Reckoning has no clue what is going on in world events. Don’t believe a word they say. Iran will eventually build their own nuclear weapon, and use it on the Israel and U.S. Iran and North Korea are today’s evil empires.
“The solution to this problem is diplomacy”
Diplomacy is what’s been tried for ages now.
” To end one sided favor by ignoring core issue of another side. Above all Israel has to come forward,removing fear from neighboring countries about his nuclear arsenal and idea of dominating those countries in middle east by giving them their occupied land . Just look back history, by asking question to your self. Does middle east had any problems before 1948?”
You live in the US? You might want to head home. Because we will never ask Israel to give in to the other side’s “core issue.” Indeed, you should take your own advice, and research the wars against Israel. Notice that in every case, multiple countries attacked it at once. Sometimes a few, sometimes many. They *should* take land as a defensive perimeter if their neighbors choose to attack them every few years.
If you want to solve the “Israel Problem” do so by arguing LOUDLY for its right to exist. Do so by condemning terrorism. Israel would have next to zero interest in military campaigns against any one of its neighbors if each and every one of them:
1) Agreed that Israel has a right to exist, as it currently stands; and
2) Stopped directly, constantly funding those who reject Israel’s right to exist (ie, those who love to butcher Israelis)
Do you want to understand the lack of peace in the middle east? Look no further than the Fogel Family:
The mother, father and a couple of young children were butchered while trying to sleep, with knives. The disgusting monsters you support who have their “core issue” and “grievance” against Israel have cheered on the men who butchered that family, and referred to them as heros.
But what happens when a rational Arab or Muslim decides to speak up for Israel?
I spoke to him. Do you know how many Muslims and Arabs contacted him to lend support? Zero.
I cannot understand what is wrong with so many people. Open your F-ing eyes.
I hope the US will stand with Israel
if we don,t we will probably suffer
loss or bring the wrath of God upon us because we did not love Israel and help protect it with whatever mean we have to protect it with.
I hope the US will stand with Israel
if we don,t we will probably suffer
loss or bring the wrath of God upon us because we did not love Israel and help protect it with whatever means we have to protect it with.
Iran is the only potentially nuclear nation which has stated on the record that another nation should be wiped off the face of the earth. It is the worlds largest exporter of terrorism. Doug is right, Iran would never overtly attack another nation with nukes. much too dangerous. It would however, conveniently misplace a nuke, or sufficient parts to construct one, which somehow finds their way into the hands of terrorists groups which have no qualms about detonating it in Europe,or the “Great Satan”, the US.
So, on this issue, Doug blew it.
Sorry I think you are a misguided Hate America blame America Fool , I take nothing you said at all serious , go live in Iran if you hate America so much !!!
Someone should inform “Doug” that Iran single handedly is the worlds largest sponsor of terroism. Iran does not want peact, they infact crave war, just look at the ramblenings of there leaders.
Iraq and Afghanistan didnt act soo bullish as to mess with us. I say we go ahead and declare war now and head on in like we did with Iraq and call it “Operation Clean House” and then have Ahmedinijad hung
Iran will not directly attack Israel or the US with nukes. But what difference does it make to a suicide bomber if he is setting off a vest of dynamite or a nuke car bomb, and a nuke pretty much destroys any evidence of who did it.
Syria has Chemical Weapons too…………
There are no evil empires, but we lose wintertime supply of vegetables and fruit import from Chile if the Eu. forces are going to protect the Chilean titanium depositories, and redirects its products from the USA.
Lets look at our direct interest, by sacrificing more attention to what happens around the south of the Pacific
“L: Right then. Thanks for your thoughts and guidance, Doug.”
make it rain bunker buster and cruise missiles over Iran’s government buildings and suspected sites!!!
I thought Bill Mahr was the biggest slime in America. This guy may be even worse. I accidently came on to this article, now I know there are traitors who in the day would have been called out for the kind of anti-American rhetoric in this article. If he really has traveled to 100 countries, he needs to land in any of those except the U.S.
This article is garbage
I am torrid reader of CNN.com news. My take on this is: because of the rhetoric statements and threat of Iran on Israel and counter rhetoric statements of Israel on Iran, It is possible there will be a war between Iran and Israel. And when that happens all of Iran allies will support Iran and all of Israel allies will support Israel. It is also possible that this may happen this year.
I am tired of being the world’s policemen. We are not appreciated or wanted, except when it comes to spending our money, using our technology or American lives spent.
Let Israel fight their own wars. We have too many of our own problems to deal with at this time.
Iran’s clear pattern to date is to arm insurgents in other countries to do their ‘dirty work,’…thus protecting themselves from direct military reprisals. A few days ago, it was reported that Iran is in talks with al Queda. To me, that is a very ominous development. If Iran gets nukes, wouldn’t they gleefully share them with al Queda, Hamas, and Hezbellah? These groups are the zealots of violent change in today’s world.
Rick Santorum believes in firm, strong response to Iran’s aggressive threats to contain or weaken those threats…which, if ignored, would continue to strengthen toward actual acts of war.
BUT, in a recent debate, Santorum proposed that we work with the Arab League and other neighboring countries for a (hopefully) negotiated end to the tragic violence in Syria, Iran’s ally.
I don’t believe that war is inevitable. But, we need a keener mind, a harder worker, a more experienced and practical strong national leader, with deeper knowledge of the issues, like Santorum, in the WH in order to avoid war.
“Who Cares!!!” *S* PS Mr O has my vote along with many other voters this fall…
OF course the US will strike Iran-Especially if we have a repub president and congress
the conservatives love a war- its good for the shareholders…
your an idiot why dont u move to iran sense u like them so much
War!, I sure hope so!… A two day war!,Just long enough to Destroy All Irans Nukes and put them Back in their RAT HOLE!….
I wont bother coming to this site again for any opinion pieces. If you believe we forced Japan into war you are ignorant of history, and if you think we are forcing Iran, you are ignorant of the present. Basically, you’re just ignorant.
This is the most idiotic article I have ever read. Is it suppose to be taken seriously? OMG!!! It is so black and white thinking and full of over-blown generalities! Louis James just goes with ever interpretation of Doug Casey, it is insane. What absolute morons.
I am in Afghanistan now. I feel that some kind of military action in Iran, is inevitable. I hope not! A war there would be a disaster.
That was fun!Doug made everybody so mad he must be close to the truth.
Doug’s an idiot. If he cannot see the difference between Iran and the other nuclear powers then he’s too simple minded to be spewing his opinions around in the press. His problem is that he wants to be a REAL boy…and his nose keeps getting in his way.
There are many ways the end all conflicts, first dismantle the Federal Reserve Bank. Make it a law to take out tyrants and dictators and leave the citizenry alone. Its not necessary to slaughter millions of innocents while lettiing the tyrant go into exile. Stop feeding the corporate industrial war machine. The political machines make war. The numbers in every nations political government cannot number more than a thousand warped minds, so go after these people and let the innocents live.
Why not expand the concept of the European Union and invite Iran to join?
Good god! There is so much misstatement, bending of facts and pompous faux-intellectual cant here to make a logical sixth grader flush. We really are a stupid species, and Dougie and Loulou here serve up a beautifully fatuous demonstration of our limited capacity for thought and communication.
The GOP is at it again! Here comes another senseless war. Trillions of our tax dollars that we’ll never see again worsening the economy again.
History & Republicans repeat themselves.
Prepare for another beat down by riot police with pepper spray America!
Lorraine Medora Ingersoll
YOUR LAST CHANCE TO CHANGE OBAMA CARE TO GINGRICH CARE!!!!! GINGRICH FOR PRESIDENT! WE NEED NEWT FOR POWER TO FIGHT FOR OUR LIVES, OUR FREEDOM, OUR COUNTRY, OUR FAMILY AND OUR CREATOR!!!!NOT EVERYONE ELSES’ CREATOR DON’T ELECT HEAD CUTTERS, OR STONERS TO OUR GREAT COUNTRY!!!! REMEMBER THE BLOOD WE SHED FOR TWO THOUSAND YEARSS FOR OUR FREEDOM TO CHOOSE “WHAT WE WANT!”!!!!! NO OTHER COUNTRY GIVES FREEDOM LIKE AMERICA!!!!!!!WE LOVE AMERICA AND THEY WANT TO KILL ISRAEL BECAUSE THEY WANT FREEDOM TOO!!!!
If Israel attacks Iran, it will be a disaster for them. Within minutes Iran will rain missiles, some with multiple warheads, down on Israel. Israel with all its weapons and high technology can’t get around the very small size of the country. Tel Aviv could look like like Leipzig after the blitz. Those planes attacking Iran may have a problem finding a place to land. All the attack will do otherwise is insure that Iran will build nuclear bombs. I do not think Israel is afraid of an attack from Iran. They are concerned an Islamic bomb in the region would decrease their ability to do what ever they want in the region including continue to oppress the Palestinians.
Mr. Casey is about stupid enough to be a left winger. How in the F can he say “it appears Iran is not making nuclear weapons”? Go over there and write your piece of crap opinion columns.
it seems like a U.S. war with iran is inevitable because our congress/senate and president are owned by israel and the jewish/zionist lobbys.
Doug is just trying to make more money by inciting fear in investors.
While there are nuggets of truth buried in the observations, there are selective omissions. For example suggesting that US policy toward Japan pre-WWII provoked the attack is asnine. Somehow I remember Japan then being 6+ years into invasions of Korea and China and committing unspeakable acts in the process. Other than economic sanctions what was the US response to be? Wealth does not make this guy correct, it just means he has money.
Wait! Are all these negative comments about the article written by agents of the United States government, or are my fellow citizens really that brainwashed?
Bravo, Doug, for writing such a truthful and blunt article, in such a digestible way.
For those of you that are in dis-belief that Our Own Dearest Government could *gasp* Lie to us (kinda like they did about the Vietnam war, 9/11, etc…) then God bless your pitiful souls when the war starts. Because things will go sour. What will happen when the millions of people in Los Angeles wake up one day and turn the faucet, to find that the water has been shut off (for those unaware, LA is practically a desert, especially considering the number of inhabitants)
What will happen when you go to the grocery store to find empty shelves?
Well, I suppose you will have plenty of Dollar Bills to wipe your arse with at least.
“That day will come, when I shall stand and see all those wicked men in the fire getting burned. That day will come, when they will try to escape and there will be nowhere to run.” ~King Shango
I am sorry, but this guy is a COMPLETE id iot. He has no concept of how money is transferred nowadays, no idea, that the is not enough gold in the world to sustain most countries’ debt. It is ludicrous and peurile to think that way. Most money isn’t money, it’s facts and figures in a computer. Going to a gold standard would create a depression never seen on this planet.
Oh and on the first point, it is not just the US that tries to control nuclear proliferation. Every country that is now nuclear does the same thing. No one wants more countries to go nuclear. There is a very fragile balance of power. I can’t even believe this guy can get printed!
According to his comment evil is bent on self-destruction, but then he quotes they would never use nuclear weapons because they would be destroyed.
hmmmm sounds like he cant make up his mind or he really thinks there is completely no evil in that part of the world. And evil only exist in the US.
Maybe he needs to go meet with them personally to get a taste of their good intentions.
Iran has one goal which is to extinguish the nation of Israel. I don’t think i would feel safe in a world where millions of Nazi’s have nuclear weapons and have already made their intentions clear.
This guy’s credibility has been shot full of holes when he somehow equivocates a dozen different administrations that are voted on every four years with a terrorist/suicide sponsor like whackjob and the mullahs.
That’s a stretch even for Goebbels or Oblaba in the propaganda department.
sounds like doug likes living in iran. makes it sound like heaven on earth! AMERICA LETS PACK OUR BAGS!
oh yeah, I was impressed with how doug brought in his endorsement in the conversation, like… Whats the solution if there’s war?…. LETS SEE, WELL, WE GOT PURPLE STUFF, RED STUFF, and.. OH YEAH SUNNY D!
Iranians chant death to America? LOL i don’t blame them after all we’re the only country that really bombs other countries instead of chanting. If there really is a missile threat which i wholeheartedly doubt I’m moving myself and my company to hawaii.
I can only hope we get in a shooting war with Iran. I am getting bored sitting at my desk and need something to do.
Doug, I hope you die with all the rest of Muslims in the world. The only good Arab is a dead Arab. Kill em all!
What do you call a pregnant muslim woman??
1 Shot, 2 KILLS!!! HAHAHAHA
I’m astounded at the fantasy world Mr Casey lives in. Get out and see the real world for what it is.
Doug obviously suffers from a profound case of cognitive dissonance, as do those who agree with him.
Funny, I didn’t think CD could be a group disorder.
Not sure why I even read this, total hogwash. IF you don’t think we are not only the world’s best peace keepers look at the billions we give other countries. Land of the free comes at the expense of protection against those who don’t believe in freedom. Why are millions of immigrants trying to get here every year? It’s freedom to achieve through hard work and opportunity. If this same sytem was in Iran the radicals couldn’t force free people into radical thoughts and blowing themselves up for 20 virgins in heaven. Why, because they would have hope.
Mr Casey. I think you better just stick to the stocks and bonds. Are you an American? It seems you have villianized, the US with every word you spew! Have you ever been in the Military? I have spent 33 years in first, the 101st Airborne, Second 5th Special Forces in 8 different conflicts.I think after you spend some time defending our country, you will have the right to speak about how we are the evil ones. Are you nut’s? We provoked Japan into attacking Pearl Harbor? I don’t know why they even let you post. You are a glorified real estate agent with money. After reading your Garbage I think you should grow a beard and start screaming Jihad.
A lot of scary war rhetoric in an attempt to sell me gold.
FYI….Japan was on a land grab, attacking other nations in an attempt to acquire more resources for their military mindset. The US shut off the supply of oil in an attempt to curtail their aggression.
This author is sadly delusional, no way did we start WW2. Hitler started it in 1939 when he invaded Poland and started his ovens up to kill 6 million or more people of Jewish Blood. Anyone who thinks this is not so, I personally will take you out behind the woodshed and beat the living tar out of you. AND NO WE DID NOT BOMB PEARL HARBOR THE JAPANESE DID AND THEY WERE WORSE THAN THE GERMANS. CRULEST PEOPLE I HAVE EVER SEEN. ANYBODY REMEMBER BATTAN DEATH MARCH? This author is an idiot and so are a lot of the posters on this site.
Mr. Casey is an idiot. He thinks everyone in the world is a sweet rational actor (except the US). I guess the Mafia, and Gangs like the Bloods and the Crypts are also misunderstood. If the leadership is so great in Iran and here we are the cause of all the evil in the world, why would Mr. Casey live in the US? Move to Iran, you’ll sell a lot more gold there! At least many of the early communist sympathizers moved to Russian in the early to mid 20th century. Why don’t you follow suit?
I agree with Mr. Casey on one point, Iran is unlikely to directly use a nuclear weapon. However, it will use the nuclear weapon to prevent other nation from retaliating when it greatly expands it’s support for terrorism and conventional war. It will not stop until we all are converted to Islam or at a minimum become dhimmies. Looks like they’ve already got Mr. Casey on their side. Iran will ignite wars against Israel, Sunni nations and the west. It will try to take control of all the middle east oil, and get the US and the west to bow to it. Nobody will dare attack it once it has nuclear weapons.
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When you've got a room full of 200 oil insiders scratching their heads at current high prices, something's gotta give.
For most investors, it’s weird to think of stocks as their go-to investing option.
The petropoly has bills to pay and setting the price of oil was a simple way to balance their budgets.
Investors don’t seem to care that what's propping up their investments is what will ultimately destroy them: government monetary policy.
For the next decade the energy revolution will be likely confined to the US, displaying the robustness of American entrepreneurship.
Why the Sage of Baltimore’s commentary persists through America’s changing times.
After attending Platt’s oil conference in London I want to relay two important themes you need to know.