Has the Stock Rally Peaked?

This time last week, we began with a typical bar stool question: Where’s the market headed? Since stocks have been intent on going nowhere (the S&P has piddled forward to a 0.5% gain so far this week), we’ll turn that query on its head today:

Where’s the market been?

The answer is that the market’s caught up in one of the biggest bear market rallies in American history. See for yourself:

Depression-Era Bear Market Rallies

The current bear market rally is longer in duration than any Depression-era rebound, and is second only in magnitude to the initial crash snapback in 1929.

Bill Bonner suggested yesterday that we are “at the beginning of a long period of adjustment — a depression.” Hmmm… And the current stock rebound looks a lot like the rally of 1929, during the very early stages of the Great Depression. So if history is to repeat, that would put us:

On the Brink