The Vicar of Palantir
“I’ve been a Democrat my whole life.”
I’ll give Alex Karp one thing: he’s got brass balls.
The cold-blooded Palantir CEO uttered that quote to Politico on Wednesday. He added that he knows more about being a progressive than almost anybody on the planet. Then he said every one of Palantir’s products is “essentially progressive.”
By one count, Karp used the word “progressive” eight times in a single interview, as if he were a man practicing a new word in the mirror.
And how’s that timing? The corpse of the Republican Congressional Majority isn’t even cold yet.
Just over a year ago, the same reptile told his shareholders Palantir was “the first company to be completely anti-woke.” On that call, he bragged, “We power ICE.” In 2024, he called wokeness a “thin pagan religion.” In 2025, he told his Democratic friends to “grow a spine.”
Really.
The Stock I Loved
In October 2023, I told you to love Palantir the stock, not Palantir the company. PLTR traded in the teens back then. Yesterday, it closed at $172.40. If you bought then and held on, you’ve made about ten times your money.
My thesis was about the Cantillon Effect. Newly printed government money lands in a few lucky spots first. Those spots get rich before everyone else. Palantir sat right at the Congressional committee crossroads of spy and defense budget allocations.
So I’m not angry with Karp. I’m grateful. In fact, I stupidly sold the stock once it doubled, so I missed a bunch of the upside.
But he just proved my thesis all over again, and with a straight face, too!
The Vicar of Bray
Karp isn’t the first man to find a new faith right after a change in government.
In 1662, an English churchman named Thomas Fuller told the tale of the Vicar of Bray. Bray is a small parish near Windsor, west of London. Legend says its vicar served under four Tudor monarchs: Henry VIII, Edward VI, Mary, and Elizabeth.
England changed its official religion almost every time the crown changed hands… and so did the vicar. He was Catholic, then Protestant, then Catholic again, then Protestant once more.
Fuller explained that the vicar had watched martyrs burn at the stake a couple of miles away in Windsor. He decided that fire was too hot for his delicate constitution.
When a critic called him a turncoat, the vicar objected. He said he’d always kept one principle, and only one: to live and die as the Vicar of Bray.
Historians now think the legend blends two or three different men, but that doesn’t matter. The English liked the story so much they wrote a ballad about it. The chorus boils down to a single vow.
Whatever king may reign, I’ll still be the Vicar of Bray.
Losing His Religion
Palantir has one giant customer: the U.S. government. NPR reports the company holds about $2 billion in federal contracts. Last quarter, Uncle Sam paid Palantir $953 million. That’s a lot of moolah to put at risk over a few old sound bites.
And in January, the parish gets new management.
Senator Ron Wyden will chair the Senate Finance Committee. He’s already demanded answers about Palantir’s work for Homeland Security. His office says forced testimony is on the table if the company doesn’t cooperate.
So on Monday, Palantir hired former Democratic Senator Jon Tester of Montana as an adviser. Tester served 18 years in the Senate as a loud critic of the Patriot Act. He didn’t want Big Brother watching anybody. Now he works for a company whose software helped ICE track deportation targets. He told NPR the firm “believes in privacy.”
Does anyone have any shame anymore?
Then Karp gave Politico his favorite line about his political giving. He said it’s split evenly between Democrats and Republicans.
Who needs conviction when you can hedge your bets so easily?
Why the Vicar Always Wins
In January, the group that controls Palantir’s purse strings changes. A company that lives on government money has no choice but to please whoever holds the purse.
The vicar didn’t care about doctrine. He cared about the income that came with the parish. Karp doesn’t care about “woke” or “anti-woke.” He cares about contract renewals.
That’s the real lesson of a Cantillon stock. You’re not betting on the party, but on the spigot. It doesn’t matter who turns on the spigot.
What It Means for Your Shares
In one sense, this is good news if you own PLTR. Management just showed you it will say anything to keep the government money flowing. That’s the bet you may have made in 2023.
But the price is another story. PLTR trades at more than 100 times earnings. It sits about 20% below its 52-week high of $212.94. A vicar can switch churches, but can’t make the collection plate grow forever.
However, the biggest risk to PLTR’s stock may be a general tech stock dump, due in no small part to Jensen Huang’s extramarital activities.
PLTR’s Weekly Chart, with our buy call back in October 2023
Remember Richard Maybury’s rules for riding a government money cone. Find it. Tap into it. Don’t expect it to last. Always look for the next one.
Wrap Up
One more Tudor story before I go.
Another man served those same four monarchs. His name was Thomas Tallis, a composer and organist in the royal chapel. He wrote music for both Catholic and Protestant services. But most accounts say he stayed Catholic his whole life, at great personal risk.
More than 400 years later, choirs still sing Tallis. The vicar is a punchline.
Still, you don’t have to admire the vicar to profit from the parish.
Have a great day ahead.
