Greg Guenthner

In bull markets, it’s good to see investors rotate in and out of different stocks.

Some sectors establish themselves as market leaders for a while. As a rally progresses, you’ll begin to see profit taking on some of these names, prompting traders to look elsewhere for strong momentum moves.

Of course, it’s a sign of a healthy rally when you see this “market of stocks” environment. It’s great for traders, too — mainly because there’s always a stock out there that’s in play or ready to make a big move.

Today, I’m going to show you one of these sectors that is beginning to break out. It’s a great place to look for new setups. In fact, you might even come across your next trade from this group of stocks.

I’m talking about the energy sector.

Late last week, I wrote to my Rude Awakening readers about how energy stocks and gold have diverged — with gold moving lower as energy names begin to break out to the upside.

Before the divergence, gold and the energy sector had underperformed the S&P for more than 18 months. Both sectors were essentially flat over the past year and a half…

But the energy sector is starting to make a move. The Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE:XLE) has exploded over the past three trading weeks, rising more than 7%. XLE posted 52-week highs Friday — and then again this morning as well. Take a look:

You can clearly see the breakout above the 2012 highs. Also, it’s important to note that unlike many other strong sectors, XLE has not yet taken out its 2011 highs.

The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (NYSE:XLY) and Health Care SPDR (NYSE:XLV) have each posted four-year highs within the past two trading sessions. Yet over the past four weeks, XLF has outperformed them both. This relative strength shows that energy shares — which have lagged the market for some time — are looking to play catch-up:

I suspect we’ll see XLE make a serious run at its 2011 highs in short order…

Also, it doesn’t hurt that earnings season (so far) has been especially kind to energy stocks. Across the board, we’re seeing stronger-than-expected earnings, with nearly 64% of companies that have already reported beating estimates. That’s the highest rate since the fourth quarter of 2012, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

The upside surprises are even more impressive. Energy names are leading the charge, with a collective positive revenue surprise of +3.28%, according to Virtus Investment Partners. Now, I’m not saying you should be trading earnings reports. But it doesn’t hurt to have this tail wind when looking at energy names.

Also, if energy names start popping, you might want to keep a close eye on the oil services sector. There hasn’t been a breakout in the Market Vectors Oil Services ETF (NYSE: OIH) just yet, but this is, obviously, a closely linked sector that has also been very strong relative to the market at large:

 

While it’s still pretty far from its 2011 highs, OIH could continue its strong run if it breaks above horizontal resistance at $44. It’s definitely worth watching.

Best,

Greg Guenthner, CMT

Original article posted on Daily Resource Hunter 

Greg Guenthner

Greg Guenthner, CMT, is the editor of the Daily Reckoning’s Rude Awakening. Greg is a member of the Market Technicians Association and holds the Chartered Market Technician designation.

Recent Articles

Maestro
The Real Reason the US Media Hates Vladimir Putin

Marc Faber

The U.S., Russia, the EU and Ukraine all met in Geneva, where all sides agreed to halt all violence and provocations in Ukraine. But the news media are still taking an antagonistic stance toward Vladimir Putin and Russia. What gives? Today, Marc Faber explains the hypocrisy behind U.S. foreign policy... and the BS the news media are pushing about it...


Video
How a Toy Robot Upended the Aerospace Industry

Kate Incontrera

One of the world's foremost innovators - Wired Magazine's former editor-in-chief, Chris Anderson - talks about the future of innovation, his company 3D Robotics and how he built the world's first Lego-operated drone at his dining room table.


Laissez Faire
The Only Solution for the Obamacare Problem

Loren Heal

Politicians talk about the uninsured. Special interests argue on behalf of those with pre-existing conditions. But why is no one wondering how doctors are affected by Obamacare? They're the ones on the front lines dealing directly with new patients, as well as the red tape that makes bureaucracies go round. Loren Heal explores further...


Huge Gains From Smart Money With No Sex Appeal

Greg Guenthner

Since the beginning of March, hedge funds have been steadily moving out of growth stocks. So it's not coincidence this sector has fallen in tandem. But the question is, where is the "smart money" headed now? Greg Guenthner examines the current, decidedly "unsexy" trend in the market. Read on...


Extra!
High Frequency Trading: An Aid to Economic Collapse

John Rubino

Thanks in part to Michael Lewis's book Flash Boys, High Frequency Trading (HFT) is front and center for this round of the news cycle. Today, John Rubino continues the discussion, explaing why HFT is so dangerous, and how public awareness of it is affecting something called the "trust horizon." Read on...


Big Opportunity in the “Baby Bakken” Oil Field

Matt Insley

As the U.S. "shale gale" nears its 10th birthday, it appears the America energy renaissance has outlived its critics. Still, it's natural to wonder whether all the big gains are behind us. Today, Matt Insley reveals the newest shale hotspot, and explains why there's still plenty of opportunity left in the U.S. energy boom. Read on...