This propaganda is designed to do one thing – drive up the price of crude.

That’s against the ideals of the Oil companies and producers. Expensive oil promotes a transition to alternatives. A transition to alternatives is the last thing they want.
The marginal cost of new production (not legacy production like Ghawar and the old giants) such as the Brazilian Deepwater Pre-Salt discoveries is around $70/bbl or more. All the cheap oil is gone.

Bottom line, you are speculating that the future will take care of itself. What you don’t understand is how fast cheap oil will decline and how incredibly expensive the alternatives will be.

We can have enough oil available for many years to come, only if we are willing to pay the price to get it. Can we afford five times, ten times, fifteen times what we now pay per barrel? Willingness is not the issue, cost is.

The cheap shot you take at the Oil Drum leaves out the fact that the core group are oil and gas industry veterans who know more about the future of oil and natural gas than you or I ever will. They have no agenda other than education. Picking away at those who are the fringe does not invalidate their dedication to the truth.

Your last post is full of wishful thinking, but no facts. For example:

“The human race is more than capable of solving these technical problems; there will always be energy available if we’re willing to go out and get it.”

“the rate of coal consumption can continue and even grow for several decades before peaking, which is plenty of time to allow for alternative arrangements to be made.”

“Once again, my forecast called for a long and painful adjustment, but not a permanent and insurmountable limit to Western Civilization. Given the history of human challenge and response, this seems entirely reasonable.”

“The costs, in that case, would have to be covered by alterations in consumption patterns that cannot be foreseen at present.”

Do you understand the concept of EROI? Here are some rough numbers (for example purposes only). If coal currently has an EROI of 80 and coal to liquids drops that EROI to less than 2, what does that do our economy? The coal based economy you are predicting will save us until we can invest the trillions of dollars needed to replace the bulk of oil and natural gas we now depend on.

Perhaps we disagree, but thanks for visiting my blog nonetheless. I just want to clarify something before the argument gets too hetaed. As I thought I mentioned in my original reply to this thread, I do not adhere to “the mad economic principle of ever increasing growth.” I fully expect the next three or four decades to be a more or less continuous period of economic shocks and geopolitical disruptions on the order of 1914-1945. However, I maintain that the supply of raw materials, commodities, energy, etc. has nothing to do with this. The human race is more than capable of solving these technical problems; there will always be energy available if we’re willing to go out and get it. Our real problems are social, political, and spiritual.

Richard:

I appreciate the link, but it doesn’t change my essential point. Even if we use The Oil Drum’s rather pessimistic numbers, the rate of coal consumption can continue and even grow for several decades before peaking, which is plenty of time to allow for alternative arrangements to be made. Once again, my forecast called for a long and painful adjustment, but not a permanent and insurmountable limit to Western Civilization. Given the history of human challenge and response, this seems entirely reasonable.

Also, it isn’t true that it takes more energy to convert coal to liquids than the liquids could provide; and even if this were true, I don’t quite understand the sacramental hypostasis you attach to the statement that “coal-to-liquids is a net energy loser.” As if that matters! Industry is always a “net energy loser,” inasmuch as it consumes energy in order to manufacture a product or achieve a result. If we need the liquid, we need the liquid. The costs, in that case, would have to be covered by alterations in consumption patterns that cannot be foreseen at present. It wouldn’t be a pointless endeavor even if it was a net energy drain; but since it isn’t, this is all academic.

The Oil Drum is an alarmist site. Many of the contributers and respondants there are ideologically invested in the failure of fossil fuels, either because they believe the Anthropogenic Global Warming hoax or becasue they are aesthetically opposed to suburban American life, a la James Howard Kunstler.

There are plenty of things that ought to change about American life, but there is no sense in being invested (ideologically or financially) in catastrophe. Even when catastrophes strike (as they will), we will have to work through them; and we will need lots of energy and initiative to do so. All the more reason to make full use of our current resources, as I advocated earlier.

Also, you should take Richard Wakefield’s advice and read the article suggested in the link.

I’m sorry Matt, but this is going to be the century where we humans find out that the rock we are living on is not best friends with the mad economic principle of ever increasing growth.

You say “America’s (and the world’s) supply of coal is effectively limitless.”

That’s just pure golden! Are you a comedian?

1. The United States has oil which has never been tapped. The coasts of Florida and California, the ANWR region in Alaska, and much of the interior West are all highly productive areas, but are off limits for political reasons.

2. Once the price of oil stabilizes above $120 dollars per barrel, the conversion of coal to liquids will become economically feasible. America’s (and the world’s) supply of coal is effectively limitless.

3. There is no shortage of natural gas. None. The Pickens plan will work and will free up millions of bpd of conventional oil.

Yes, the adjustment from light sweet crude to alternative liquid hydrocarbons will be a long and painful process. It will bring about (or perhaps it would be more accurate to say it will happen in conjunction with) large-scale geopolitical realignments and economic disruptions. Our society will have to reorganize many things about the way we live and work, but this has happened countless times before in world history. There will be winners and losers, but America is poised to do very well in the new regime provided we use our resources and our talents wisely.