Comments on: Huge Currency Rally Gets Stopped http://dailyreckoning.com/huge-currency-rally-gets-stopped/ Covering the economy, global markets and world politics. Sun, 22 Nov 2009 06:01:02 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: tony bonn http://dailyreckoning.com/huge-currency-rally-gets-stopped/#comment-7802 tony bonn Mon, 11 May 2009 19:09:22 +0000 http://dailyreckoning.com/?p=15504#comment-7802 the jobs loss data for april is vey misleading because it includes a large number of temporary census workers and the business birth/death number was doubled from the previous month....not sure why that number would double in a month during a contraction but government hacks get away with deceptions - at least in the short run.... february's losses were revised higher as well by 30,000 - i.e. more losses.... so april's number is at least as bad as the previous month's in the worst case or a very flimsy basis for claiming an enduring basis for a recovery.... bottom line is it was another huge loss...spinning it as a win is infantile.... and if anyone was paying attention he would have noticed continuing unemployment claims rising.... the jobs loss data for april is vey misleading because it includes a large number of temporary census workers and the business birth/death number was doubled from the previous month….not sure why that number would double in a month during a contraction but government hacks get away with deceptions – at least in the short run….

february’s losses were revised higher as well by 30,000 – i.e. more losses….

so april’s number is at least as bad as the previous month’s in the worst case or a very flimsy basis for claiming an enduring basis for a recovery….

bottom line is it was another huge loss…spinning it as a win is infantile….

and if anyone was paying attention he would have noticed continuing unemployment claims rising….

]]> By: Bryan Hupp http://dailyreckoning.com/huge-currency-rally-gets-stopped/#comment-7801 Bryan Hupp Mon, 11 May 2009 19:00:56 +0000 http://dailyreckoning.com/?p=15504#comment-7801 Chuck, Just a quick comment on your analysis of the government's headline job loss number put out last week. Specifically, the net loss number included over 200,000 jobs assumed to have been created due to the birth-death ratio criteria they apply at the BLS (I think the number was actually closer to 230,000). I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the 539,000 jobs lost revised to 650,000 or more next month (and nobody will bother reporting it as you mentioned). The old maxim about statistics really applies when it comes to these first-pass numbers. Chuck,

Just a quick comment on your analysis of the government’s headline job loss number put out last week. Specifically, the net loss number included over 200,000 jobs assumed to have been created due to the birth-death ratio criteria they apply at the BLS (I think the number was actually closer to 230,000). I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the 539,000 jobs lost revised to 650,000 or more next month (and nobody will bother reporting it as you mentioned). The old maxim about statistics really applies when it comes to these first-pass numbers.

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